Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/31/09

David Ortiz was the headline grabber Thursday. The revelation that Big Papi, along with teammate Manny Ramirez, was one of the positive testers from the now infamous 2003 voluntary and supposedly anonymous samplings was clearly the hot button topic for the day.

I haven’t altered my stance at all since this whole fiasco began. There was no policy prior to 2004, and I therefore really don’t care who was doing what before MLB decided to getting a little more serious about the issue. Add in the fact that many of the PED’s that are illegal here were not so in other countries, and the whole scenario becomes even murkier.

However, David Ortiz does rate more criticism than some others who have been outed. That’s because Big Papi appears to be coming across as a giant hypocrite. He’s been one of the louder voices in expressing disdain for violators, and calling for harsher penalties than are presently on the books. Sorry, Papi, but you should have kept your mouth shut. If you’re going to take the pulpit and preach that holier than thou claptrap, you’d better be squeaky clean yourself.

Basically, Ortiz is now a baseball version of John Ensign, one of our U.S. Senators here in Nevada. Ensign has been one of those pompous Christian value-spouting blowhards forever. He was at the front of the line back in the Clinton administration when the President’s indiscretions became public, and he harrumphed himself into the headlines with outrage over Clinton’s behavior. Now it turns out Ensign was having his own extra-marital affair. I have little use for those who preach to others about sinning and then are found to be doing exactly the same thing themselves. Ortiz is evidently guilty of being the same kind of hypocrite, and he therefore is due more disdain than those who at least kept their mouths shut and didn’t try to come off as being above such behavior.

I’ll continue to root for the Red Sox, and this doesn’t do a thing to taint the titles won in 2004 and 2007. And I’ll still be pulling for Ortiz to come through with big hits in the team’s latest quest for glory. But at this point in time, I’ve lost quite a bit of respect for Big Papi, and his declaration that he intends to find out exactly what it is that caused to him score a positive on the test is, quite frankly, very tough to swallow as being truthful at this point.
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There was one significant deal Thursday as the Dodgers and Orioles completed a trade that looks solid for both sides.

LA has a weary bullpen that has logged a ton of innings this season, and they’ve been in need of a strong setup man for closer Jonathan Broxton. They solved that issue by obtaining George Sherrill from Baltimore. Sherrill has done well enough closing for the O’s, but he’s actually best suited for situational work setting up. With the return of Hong-Chih Kuo and the arrival of Sherrill, the Dodgers have suddenly shored up what appeared to be a vulnerability. Plus, Sherrill is a very strong insurance policy should Broxton’s toe problems resurface.

The Orioles did nicely in this deal as well. Josh Bell and Steve Johnson are good prospects that will add to the Baltimore arsenal of quality youth. This team is really setting itself up well for a serious run at the playoffs by 2011. Bell is at 3B right now, although there’s speculation he’ll eventually move across the diamond. His bat is his best tool, and while Bell doesn’t project as an All-Star, he does look like a guy who can become a big league regular and a good fit in the #6 hole in a decent lineup.

Johnson has to be absolutely thrilled with this deal. He’s a Maryland native, and is the son of former big league pitcher and current O’s broadcaster Dave Johnson. Steve has seen his stock rise considerably this season. Johnson put together strong numbers in the hitter-friendly Cal League and he’s been even better since moving up to AA Chattanooga. Johnson has registered an impressive 117 K’s in only 107 innings. He’s still got occasional control issues, and there is some concern about his somewhat violent delivery. But Johnson has gone from a guy who projected as a likely bullpen denizen to a potential mid-rotation starter down the road.

I would rate both teams as winners in this deal, with the Dodgers getting the immediate profit while the Orioles cash in later on.
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The Brewers have had a rough go of it over the past month. But they finally have a little something going with back to back wins as they head to San Diego, and with three games against the Padres, it’s an important opportunity for Milwaukee to try and make some lost ground in the NL Central chase. Chad Gaudin has been okay for the Padres and the team is on their own mini-roll, but I’ll take my chances with Looper and the Brewers here.

My free plays over the weekend can be obtained by calling 1-888-567-7660, which gets you the picks on a recorded message.

Finally, for those of you looking for some of the better college football advice available, simply leave me contact info and I’ll get in touch directly.

Enjoy the weekend!

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/30/09

Lots of uniform changing on Wednesday, and it looks like plenty more to come as we edge closer to the non-waiver deadline. The Indians were involved in what was by far the biggest deal of the day, while the Pirates stripped themselves of two more regulars in what has turned into a complete overhaul of their system at all levels.

The main event was obviously the Cleveland-Philadelphia deal. Cliff Lee is now with the defending champs, and I don’t think there’s much doubt that the present Phillies are better than the team that won it all last season. The Indians now have four lefties in their rotation, which is really unusual, but with Lee and Hamels at the top and lone righty Joe Blanton in the best form of his career, it’s a very solid qunitet. Plus, Pedro Martinez is on the horizon and anything they get from him is a bonus.

I’m not closing the door on the Phillies trade options, however. I think they’d like to add another arm for the bullpen, and Orioles lefty George Sherrill could be on their radar screen. Since they did not have to part with J.A. Happ in the Indians deal, might the Phillies be willing to ship him to the O’s for an ideal eighth inning lefty who can also close? The O’s would love to land a lefty starter so that they don’t feel compelled to rush Brian Matusz, and we know they’re looking to move Sherrill.

The Phillies also unexpectedly obtained OF Ben Francisco in the Lee deal. Francisco is a nice fit for the Phillies as a backup OF and a righty bat off the bench. I don’t think Francisco is arbitration-eligible till after next season, so the Phils got themselves a decent back of the roster addition with this move.

As for the Indians, I don’t think they got much in return. Carlos Carrasco has the big arm, but the results just have not been there. He’s only 22, so there’s lots of room for improvement, but he’s stalled at AA and AAA and I think his stock has dropped some. Lou Marson projects as an average big league catcher at best. He might hit for an okay BA, but has little power. He’s not blessed with great defensive tools, either, although his makeup and leadership skills are off the charts. If he stays with Cleveland, it will be as a backup to Carlos Santana. Jason Donald has not hit at AAA this season, so he needs to master that level offensively. He will end up at 2B or as a utility player at the major league level, and does not profile as a star. The intriguing guy in the deal is Jason Knapp, who has a monster fastball and is still only 18 years old. But his mechanics are a mess, he’s very raw and despite a ton of K’s at Lo-A, he’s getting knocked around pretty hard. Maybe he’ll develop, but I’d bet that if he ever gets to the majors it will be as a reliever, where he can get by with his fastball.
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The Pirates unloaded two more starters, as Freddy Sanchez went to the Giants and Jack Wilson ended up with the Mariners in a seven-player deal.

There was quite a bit of surprise expressed about the Bucs landing Tim Alderson even up for Sanchez. He’s a 2007 first-round selection and his progress to date is noteworthy. But I’m not as sold on Alderson as many analysts. The plus is his 6-1, 3.47 ledger at AA this season, which is definitely outstanding. But I’m a little concerned that he’s only registered 46 K’s in 72.2 IP of work with Connecticut. True, Alderson is only 20 years old, so the mere fact he’s winning games at AA is a very good thing. But I will admit to a bias against prospects who don’t miss bats. It doesn’t mean they can’t win at the highest level, but if a pitcher can’t get the whiffs at AA, they’ll generally get even less against more advanced hitters. This is not to suggest that Alderson won’t be a quality big league starter. His velocity could improve as he fills out physically, and he sure appears to have a solid mound presence. But while many will be lauding him as the future ace for the Pirates, I see him more as a middle of the rotation type right now.

The Pittsburgh-Seattle deal looks to me like a big win for the Mariners. Jack Wilson is not popular among fantasy baseball enthusiasts, as he’s little more than an acceptable BA type with limited sock and not much speed. The one quibble I have with fantasy leaguers is that they confuse their game with the real thing. Wilson is a superb defender. His presence in the Mariners infield is huge and that’s why they eagerly dealt for him. The fact he caught the first flight out of San Francisco on Wednesday and managed to don a Mariners uniform while they were still playing their day game with the Blue Jays speaks volumes about how thrilled Wilson is to escape what had become a personal purgatory. I really like this acquisition for the Mariners.

Seattle also landed Ian Snell, who has regressed badly since breaking out in 2007. I have never considered Snell more than a back of the rotation type as his control and command are erratic. But if Snell can get back to something approaching his one good major league season, he can help the Mariners.

The Pirates got very little in return for Wilson and Snell. The Bucs were clearly hamstrung on this one as they simply had to trade Wilson. he had become a very disruptive force in the clubhouse as a discontented veteran on a young team, so he had to go and the Bucs didn’t figure to get much for him. And they didn’t. Jeff Clement is now almost 26 and is still in AAA. He’s listed as a catcher, but he can’t catch and will certainly have to play 1B. At that spot, he becomes a likely below average performer offensively. I don’t see Clement as more than a marginal prospect at this point. Ronny Cedeno is a below average major leaguer, and is strictly a backup. As for the three young pitchers obtained by the Pirates, none of them are particularly highly regarded, although Brett Lorin might be a sleeper and he’s having a very nice year at Lo-A. Teammate Andrew Pribanic throws pretty hard, but he’s got only 54 K’s in 87 IP, an alarmingly low ratio at that level. Nathan Adcock is the most advanced currently, as he’s at Hi-A. Ignore his numbers there, as High Desert is the worst pitching environment in all of organized baseball. But the scouting reports on Adcock are that aside from a good breaking ball, he’ll be very limited unless he can get some movement on his fastball.
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The big winner of the day is unquestionably the Phillies. I really like what the Mariners did as well. The Giants gave up a decent prospect, but netted a 2B that might help them win the NL wild card this year. As for the Pirates, well, at least they got some bodies, and one or two of them might pan out down the road. The big losers are the Indians, who dealt away another Cy Young winner and failed to land even one elite prospect in return.

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Javier Vazquez is having a great year for the Braves and would be a Cy Young contender had he been getting better run support. Nevertheless, I’m going to take my chances against Vazquez here. The Marlins have owned the Braves this season, and with Vandenhurk throwing it pretty well since rejoining the Fish, I like the home team’s chances at a very nice price. The Marlins are my free opinion for Thursday.

I can’t wait for college football to begin, as I’m way ahead of the curve with my pre-season assessments and I’m expecting a huge September. If you’re a serious player, now is the time to join me for the 2009 campaign, as I can extend a substantial discount off the in-season rate. Leave a message and I’ll personally be in touch.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/29/09

Okay, I’m stumped. I don’t know what to believe at this point as far as whether the Blue Jays will find a deal they like for Roy Halladay.

ESPN’s Buster Olney says that the talks between the Jays and the apparent front running Phillies have made little progress and that the “dialogue has gotten heated, as in angry.”

The two Philly dailies both claim that the teams are getting closer to finalizing a deal, but the Toronto Globe and Mail says the talks have cooled down and that nothing’s happening.

Confusing enough? Wow, I guess so. But here’s one item that makes me believe the Blue Jays might be willing to soften there demands somewhat. While there’s no surprise that they had scouts at Kyle Drabek’s Monday start, it’s very interesting to note that the Jays also had scouts at Lehigh Valley on Tuesday night, where Jason Donald is rehabbing following a DL stint.

Like I said when all this Halladay talk began weeks ago, I think Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi boxed himself into a corner when he went public. I remain convinced he will not get the monster package he’s desiring for Halladay, and that he’s now in a situation where he is basically being forced to deal him.

If the Phillies and Blue Jays can’t work things out, the Red Sox could suddenly emerge as the favorite. I have some good sources back in New England, and they’re telling me the Red Sox are now willing to offer both Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden. Yahoo also has reported that, but they claim the Red Sox have also included Ryan Westmoreland in the offer, and I was told that is not true.

Like I said, I’m stumped. I really don’t have a good feel of what will happen at the finish line on this one. But gun to my head, I’m still leaning toward some kind of compromise with the Blue Jays and Phillies, with Drabek, Donald and possibly J.A. Happ packaged for the Doc.
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The Halladay sweepstakes is clearly the most intriguing deadline possibility. Running second is Cliff Lee. The ultra-reliable Indians lefty is being eyed as a consolation prize by the Phillies, and the Dodgers are definitely in the mix as well. The holdup between the Dodgers and Indians is that Cleveland is demanding a current major leaguer. Some sources have indicated that it’s James Loney, but I can’t see why the Indians would want him. They’re already overloaded at 1B. It’s not going to be Matt Kemp, who’s too good to deal. It’s not going to be Juan Pierre, who makes too much money to deal. The Indians are set behind the plate, so it can’t be Russell Martin. So assuming that a Cleveland-LA deal is in the works, I think the current big leaguer might have to be Andre Ethier, simply by the process of positional and salary elimination.

The Dodgers would undoubtedly prefer to simply deal prospects. But the fact is their system is thin right now. Andrew Lambo is probably their highest ceiling guy, and there’s sharply divided opinion as to how he projects. The current higher-level prospects just aren’t that good, and pitchers Ethan Martin and Josh Lindblom are nowhere near being ready for the show.

I would not rule out the possibility of a bigger deal between the Indians and Dodgers, however. Because the Indians are basically stuck with Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez is heading into his option year, V-Mart remains a strong possibility to be dealt. I would also not rule out Matt LaPorta as a trade piece. I know he’s a very good prospect, but as it stands now, the Tribe is going to have a real glut between catcher and 1B next spring. They already moved Ryan Garko, who was the least valuable commodity of the players at one of those positions. But I think they’re going to have to move at least one more body, so there’s a real possibility the Indians could get involved in a legit blockbuster trade.
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If he’s truly available, San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez is the best value on the board right now. He’s signed long term for what amounts to chump change by baseball standards. Personally, I think the Padres should be thrown out of baseball if they trade him. But I suppose that a mega-package including perhaps the top two prospects from a good organization would at least be mildly palatable. Fortunately, word is the Padres are just listening to offers for Gonzalez and won’t likely move him.

But the same sources are reporting that the Friars are only gauging the market as far as closer Heath Bell is concerned as well. That’s the guy I think Kevin Towers should absolutely be trying to trade. Bell is already 31 years old. The Padres are at least a couple years from being competitive, and that’s an optimistic viewpoint. Considering the average shelf life of closers, there’s at least a reasonable chance that Bell won’t be anywhere near the level he’s enjoying right now. Even if he is, he’s just a closer, and I’m not putting him in the elite class off one big year in that role. Bell is a valued commodity right now, and given the sorry state of the Padres organization, they should be shopping Bell actively.
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Finally, the Pirates are now making it clear they want to rid themselves of their two prime malcontents, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. You can chisel the following in granite. The Bucs will get nothing more than a couple of mid-level prospects for either guy, and that’s a best case scenario. Everyone in baseball knows they want out, and everyone in baseball also knows the Pirates are little more than a farm team for teams that are actually trying to win. Some analysts are buying the Pittsburgh’s front office insistence that they’re building for the future. Sorry, not me. Turn the clock ahead about two or three years, and I have little doubt we’ll be hearing the same thing as Andrew McCutchen become eligible for arbitration. The franchise is a joke, and a bad one at that.
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The Metrodome continues to be a nightmare locale for the White Sox. But I am going to take a shot with the Chisox to salvage the finale of this series. Bartolo Colon looked okay in his first start back off his latest DL stint, and Francisco Liriano has just one home win all season. This game looks like a tossup to me, so I see some okay value in grabbing the decent road dogs odds with the White Sox.

College football is my best betting game, as many of you probably already know. If you’re serious about making some real money betting the colleges this fall, there’s no question in my mind I can make that happen. Leave me your contact info and I’ll personally get in touch with you to discuss what’s available.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/28/09

The biggest names supposedly available haven’t moved yet, but the first of what could be a slew of lesser deals was consummated Monday evening. San Francisco acquired 1B Ryan Garko from Cleveland in return for pitching prospect Scott Barnes. I think both teams did okay with this trade, and here’s why.

The Giants went for offense with Garko. He’ll immediately take over 1B from Travis Ishikawa. Garko is clearly an improvement offensive, but the fact is Ishikawa has hit righties very well at home, so it’s not as though this is a monster upgrade. Plus, Garko is a poor defender, so the Giants will actually lose a little on that end. In other words, I don’t see this as a huge move for the Giants. But at the same time, it’s not like they gave up a future ace to land Garko, and he certainly won’t hurt them.

Barnes is tearing up the Cal League, where he’s 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA, including 99 strikeouts in 98 innings. That’s really impressive, especially in what is a very hitter-friendly league. Barnes projects as a big leaguer down the road, but I don’t see him as anything more than a back of the rotation type. He’s very crafty, and that’s allowing him to fool hitters in Hi-A. I would expect he’ll continue to thrive at the various minor league levels. He’s got a deceptive delivery and excellent command. What Barnes doesn’t have is a power arm, as his heat is generally in the high 80’s. I’m not sure I understand why the Indians continue to be so utterly fascinated with this type of southpaw. They already have Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers with the big club, and Barnes looks like yet another version of the same pitcher. I think his ceiling is back of the rotation, although it’s not like there’s anything wrong with getting even that for a second-tier 1B like Garko.

The biggest beneficiary of this deal could end up being Andy Marte, who’s been annihilating AAA pitching with Columbus. Yeah, I know, Andy Marte has been a monster flop after being ballyhooed as a future superstar a few years ago. But the fact is that Marte is only 25 years old, and it may just be that he’s finally figuring things out.

I’m not saying Marte is suddenly going to explode and become an All-Star, but some guys are just late bloomers and Marte could fit that criteria. He reminds me of Marlon Byrd in that respect. Like Marte, Byrd was a mega-prospect who was a mega-bust with the Phillies and he wasn’t much better with the Nationals. But after almost everyone had given up on him and relegated him to the scrap heap, Byrd got another chance with Texas and he’s become a decent big league OF. The breakthrough didn’t come for Byrd till he was 29. Marte is much younger and the tools are still there. The Garko deal means an open roster spot for Marte, and I expect the Indians to give him an extended look at 3B.

Summing it up, I think Garko-Barnes was a deal worth doing for both teams. Garko was very expendable, with Matt LaPorta set to take over next year at 1B on a virtually permanent basis as Carlos Santana gets set to move in behind the plate. They can also take look at Marte in the process. I’m not sure where that leaves Victor Martinez, as he’s due big bucks next season if the Tribe chooses to exercise his option. As for the Giants, they’re loaded with minor league pitchers and they didn’t have to part with a future stud to land Garko.
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The Mariners are on the verge of falling out of the AL West chase. But Jared Washburn is pitching absolutely great ball, and he’s listed as small chalk tonight as Seattle hosts the Blue Jays and rookie lefty Rzepczynski. He’s been effective to date, but I can’t resist the red hot Washburn at this number, so the Mariners are the choice.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/27/09

The first of the four superstars reportedly available has moved, with the Cardinals winning the Matt Holliday sweepstakes. But the two stud pitchers, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, plus catcher Victor Martinez, are still on the market, leading to what could be a wild final few days before the buzzer sounds on Friday.

The Blue Jays are trying hard to garner a bundle for Halladay, but they haven’t found any takers to date. The Phillies are still very much in the mix, but not for what the Jays are demanding. On Thursday, Toronto reportedly asked for lefty J.A. Happ, and top prospects Dominic Brown and Kyle Drabek in return for the Doc. The Phils wisely turned that offer down. Happ has established himself as a viable big leaguer this season. Brown is a legit Top 25 prospect and Drabek has made tremendous progress this season while also erasing doubts about his makeup. Halladay is a great pitcher, but considering that the Phillies are almost certainly going to make the playoffs with or without Halladay, they would have been foolish to part with that much for the star righty. The Phils are apparently trying to sell the Blue Jays on a package that would feature pitcher Carlos Carrasco and IF Jason Donald. There’s no way the Blue Jays are going to go for that, but I would imagine there’s still plenty of room for negotiation.

The Angels are apparently out of the Halladay picture. They reportedly turned down an offer that would have seen lefty Joe Saunders, SS Erik Aybar, IF Brandon Wood and an unnamed minor leaguer head to Toronto. A source of mine claims that the prospect was lefty Trevor Reckling, and if that’s the case, I sure don’t blame the Halos for saying no. Like the Phillies, the Angels are in great shape to make the post-season without Halladay. Thus, it simply doesn’t make sense to part with a monster package for anyone, even a pitcher as good as Halladay.

If the Blue Jays are willing to lower their demands slightly, I believe either of the aforementioned potential trade partners are in the mix, as well as several other franchises, including the Red Sox and Dodgers.
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The Indians are looking for players they can develop. They don’t need current big leaguers, but if they can land two or three high ceiling prospects, both Lee and Martinez are available. Lee is going to command the bigger package because the general consensus is that Martinez is declining as a catcher and will eventually have to move to 1B full time within a year or two. Plus, the Indians have Carlos Santana on the way, which makes V-Mart even more expendable.

The team that is best suited to make the Indians an offer is Texas. Their system is flat out loaded. Even if acquiring Lee doesn’t get them to the playoffs this season, he’s still the ace they’ll need in 2010. Unless the asking price is insane, I think there’s a decent chance these two teams could partner up on a deal before the week is out.

As for Martinez, the Red Sox have the guy Cleveland wants in Clay Buchholz. But the formerly deep Red Sox rotation is not as formidable as it appeared to be last month at this time. Tim Wakefield is injured, they cannot count on Daisuke Matsuzaka being of any use the rest of this season, and John Smoltz is struggling badly. As valuable a commodity as V-Mart obviously is, the Red Sox may not be able to afford Buchholz at this point.

Tampa Bay may be a more likely destination. Martinez is a perfect fit for the Rays. He can catch three or four games weekly and either DH or give Carlos Pena a day off at 1B the rest of the time. The Rays still have plenty of hot prospects, and with Wade Davis still blocked for the present, the righty may be the prize piece that gets a deal done.
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Here are some other names that are being mentioned in possible deals. Erik Bedard is heading back to the DL yet again, so scratch him off the list. But that very likely means Jared Washburn is now the Mariners pitcher that will be sought after by several squads.

Orlando Cabrera is still, in my opinion, a perfect fit for Boston, as I explained last week. But the team that’s the hottest for OCab is reportedly the Twins. Minnesota also likes the idea of adding Michael Wuertz to their bullpen, so there may very well be something happening between the Twins and A’s.

The Angels could turn their attention to Tampa’s Scott Kazmir if they’re out of the Halladay talks. Kazmir is having a very poor season, however, and his velocity is down substantially, so I can’t imagine the Halos offering much in a deal.

The Yankees are still hoping to land a fifth starter. They want to limit Joba Chamberlain’s innings, they are not taking Phil Hughes out of the pen, Sergio Mitre is not the answer and Chien-Miong Wang is likely done for the year. One report has the Yankees taking a stab at Ian Snell, who’s pitching with the Pirates AAA affiliate in Indianapolis. The Yankees won’t need to part with much to get Snell, and he does have upside, so this makes some sense.

The Padres might listen to offers for Adrian Gonzalez, but I don’t see him going anywhere unless the offer is simply huge. But closer Heath Bell is another story. The Friars desperately need a system upgrade and if Bell can net them a pair of strong prospects, they probably ought to jump.

The Brewers and Diamondbacks already got one deal done, and there have been rumors for some time that Milwaukee wants Doug Davis. But with the Brewers not playing well at all right now, I believe that lessens the possibility they’ll be buyers this week.

The Orioles are shopping all of their relievers, but they’re asking for a ton for the best of the bunch, lefty closer George Sherrill. As I mentioned last week, I don’t see any possibility of Baltimore going the fire sale route, so I’m still betting Sherrill stays put.

Finally, get set for at least a couple of deals involving the Reds. They’re dead in the NL Central chase at this point, so that means either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo are very much available. Ditto for closer Francisco Cordero, who might well emerge as the best bullpen bait available anywhere.

More to come as the deadline approaches.
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Rich Hill has been pretty awful for the Orioles, but if he’s going to have a good game, tonight’s the night. He’s up against a miserable Royals lineup that gets even less daunting against lefties. The Orioles have played respectable ball at home, and they should have their way against the serves of Bruce Chen, who’s been absolutely hammered in his road starts. KC is about as bad as it gets right now, so I’ll go ahead and spot the price here with the Orioles.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/24/09

Relentless. That’s the best word I can come up with to describe the attitude of baseball’s hottest team, the Los Angeles Angels. Thursday night’s come from behind 6-5 extra inning win by the Halos was a perfect illustration of how tough it is to beat this team right now.

The Angels are now a remarkable 27-9 in their last 36 games. They haven’t yet put away the surprising Rangers and Mariners in the AL West, but it certainly seems like it’s just a matter of time before playoff tickets go on sale in Anaheim yet again.

What makes this run by the Angels even more impressive is that they haven’t missed a beat despite losing two key components to their offense. Granted, Vlad Guerrero has not exactly had a vintage year. But he was getting very hot when he went down with his latest injury. But maintaining the pace without Torii Hunter is another story entirely. Hunter was my first half AL MVP, and his injury created a definite void in the team’s lineup. Yet instead of faltering, the Angels have simply motored along as though they don’t even know Hunter is out.

There doesn’t seem to be a hole anywhere in the 1-9 Mike Scioscia sends out each night. He’s clearly one of the elite skippers in the game. Niot only is his team as good as it gets fundamentally, Scioscia’s knack for getting everyone on the roster involved is definitely a major plus when it comes to creating positive chemistry. That may be an overused term, but I believe it’s a huge part of the reason the Angels are always in the thick of things. They have some very talented individuals, but there’s not a team in baseball that embraces the team concept better than the Halos.

The only real fly in the Angels ointment is that they seem better constructed for the regular season than the playoffs. The pitching staff is loaded with effective grinders but lacks that true power arm that seems to be a necessary ingredient come October. Similarly, while they’re obviously not devoid of power, the Angels don’t have that one big bomber on offense who can turn a game around in short order. I think those are the reasons they haven’t been able to get the same results in the post season that they are able to get over 162 games.

But I have to say that there just seems to be a little different feel to this edition of the Angels. They’re about as tough as it gets mentally. If you watch them on a regular basis, you know exactly what I mean. And that’s the compelling trait that may have this year’s Angels on course for a big time run come playoff time.
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The Mariners get lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith back from the DL tonight, and he’s a good fit as their #5 starter. Rowland-Smith should be fired up to finally get back in action, Aaron Laffey’s road numbers are nothing special, and the contending Mariners are likely to be more focused right now than an Indians squad that’s waiting to see who gets traded next. I’ll play Seattle in this contest.

Don’t forget my free plays for Saturday and Sunday are on a recorded message at 1-888-567-7660. Enjoy the weekend!

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/23/09

Theo Epstein was the busiest man in baseball on Wednesday. The Red Sox GM engineered a pair of interleague deals that saw Adam LaRoche and Chris Duncan leaving Pittsburgh and St. Louis, respectively. The Red Sox gave up a couple of minor leaguers for LaRoche and sent Julio Lugo to the Cardinals to complete the two deals.

If the Red Sox do nothing else from this point, they’ll at least have gotten themselves some insurance for Mike Lowell, who just can’t play 3B on an everyday basis anymore. LaRoche would play 1B on the days Lowell can’t make it, with Kevin Youkilis sliding over to the hot corner. That’s if LaRoche remains with the Red Sox. I’m wondering if he will and here’s why I feel he could be packing his bags again shortly.

The most pressing need for the Red Sox right now is for a leadoff hitter and an everyday shortstop. Boston has had a problem all season with the #1 spot in the lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury seems to be a better fit down toward the bottom of the order right now. Jed Lowrie is finally back healthy and Nick Green has done a very nice job filling in at SS, but I don’t think there’s any question that this is the weakest link in the lineup.

There is virtually zero question in my mind that Epstein is going to make at least one more deal, and perhaps more, and I firmly believe his wish list includes a shortstop who can fill the void at the top of the order. And that’s why I have a funny feeling a former Red Sox hero could be on his way back to Boston before too long.

Orlando Cabrera had a brief stay in Boston, but it was certainly memorable. Cabrera came over to the Red Sox in the huge four-team deal that involved Nomar Garciaparra. The trade was not at all well received in Boston when it took place, and Cabrera got off to a poor start with the Red Sox. He didn’t hit much and cost them a game with a defensive blunder. But OCab got hot shortly thereafter and ended up being a huge piece of the puzzle as the Red Sox finally ended 86 years of frustration and won the World Series.

Theo Epstein hasn’t made many mistakes as the Red Sox GM. But letting Cabrera get away following 2004 and instead spending big bucks on Edgar Renteria was clearly not his best move. Here’s his chance to bring back a Boston fan favorite and help solve the team’s most pressing current problem in the process.

I’m pretty sure Cabrera is available, simply because I’m pretty sure every veteran on the Oakland squad is available. LaRoche would be a decent fit for the A’s. He’s a free agent after the season, so the A’s could simply let him leave town or they could sign up for what would likely be a one-year contract at close to what he’s making now. LaRoche will not be fielding a ton of offers this winter. We saw what the marketplace was like this past winter and I fully expect more of the same this winter. So the likelihood is that the A’s might be one of the few options that would be available to LaRoche, as he’s nothing more than a mid-tier 1B. He even fits in Oakland right now with Daric Barton playing 1B in place of the injured and totally non-productive Jason Giambi.

As for the corner IF situation in Boston, my thoughts are that Duncan can be the extra 1B guy just as easily as LaRoche. In fact, while LaRoche is the better player, one might also argue that Duncan would be far more accepting of a bench role than LaRoche, who might not be happy about starting only a couple of games each week.

Cabrera is a perfect fit for the Red Sox. He may not have the range he used to, but he’s still a good SS. He’s also just right for the leadoff spot. Cabrera’s walk rate has been down this season, but he’d likely be more selective hitting in a better lineup. Meanwhile, OCab has been absolutely raking the ball the last month or so. He’s hit safely in 28 of his last 30 games, going 46/126 in that stretch. Given the state of the Boston attack right now, they’d love to get that injection of offense into the lineup.

I have no idea whether this is what Epstein has in mind, but it’s a swap that would hardly qualify as far fetched, and with the Red Sox clearly not done dealing just yet, it may be something that’s a possibility.
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Scott Kazmir finally had a good game last start, but there were still indicators that the Rays southpaw is not yet right. Kazmir will have to show me more before I can feel comfortable with him. Mark Buehrle continues to be a win machine at home for the White Sox and with the price where it is, the home team looks like the play here.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/22/09

I’m not what one would call a high volume contributor at Twitter or Facebook. I basically use Twitter as a great source for news and sports feeds, and I’ll post a Tweet when my daily blog is completed or when I’m about to go on the air with the radio show. Facebook is a cool way to network with friends and also update in the same fashion as I utilize Twitter. For the most part, that’s all I use either site for. But on occasion, I’ll make a snide remark about something, and that was the case last night as I watched the Angels dismantle the Royals en route to a sweep of their doubleheader.

The comment was, “I’m watching the Royals right now. My way of supporting minor league baseball.”

Wow, is this team ever terrible. Their starting pitching combo for the Tuesday twinbill was Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen. That may well be the worst doubleheader duo I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been watching baseball for a long time.

I can’t even see where there’s any real hope right now among even the most ardent KC fans. The team has a great pitcher in Zack Greinke and a stud closer in Joakim Soria. Aside from that duo, there’s very little to get excited about for Royals fans. Highly touted Alex Gordon hasn’t come close to living up to expectations. Billy Butler was supposed to be a fabulous hitter but he’s become little more than a decent BA with ordinary production and a terrible glove. Mark Teahen is about the same as Butler offensively, although he’s at least versatile defensively. David DeJesus has never developed into what the Royals thought he would become. There is another good prospect on the way in Mike Moustakas, but I would not classify him as a future All Star and their top pick from last year, Eric Hosmer, is having a rough first full season as a pro.

Unfortunately, that’s the good news for the Royals. The brief regime of GM Dayton Moore has seen a succession of bad moves, and there’s a growing belief that Moore is simply in over his head at this level. Take a look at the moves Moore has made and judge for yourself.

Moore used the first overall selection in the 2006 draft on Luke Hochevar, and he’s looking to be a back of the rotation starter at best. He’s wasted free agent money on Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth, among others. I hated the deal he made with the Marlins this past off season when he shipped useful reliever Leo Nunez to Florida for Mike Jacobs. His recent deal with Seattle in which he relieved the Mariners of Yuniesky Betancourt while parting with pitching prospect Daniel Cortes was ripped by every sharp baseball analyst I’m familiar with. Include me in that group on this deal. I know Cortes has stalled this season, but he’s only 22 years old and still has a high ceiling. Betancourt is a low OBP SS who can’t play defense and has evidently already reached whatever ceiling he’s got. I can go on, but you get the point.

As far as I can tell, the highlight of the Moore regime to date is the deal with the Diamondbacks that brought Alberto Callaspo to Kansas City. No offense to Callaspo, who’s a pretty good utility guy, but if that’s the headline grabber, there’s something very wrong.

The bottom line is that it’s got to be tough to be a Royals fan these days. They’re not even a team in transition. They just plain stink, and there’s simply nothing to indicate that’s going to change anytime soon. Too bad, because Kansas City was long ago established as a terrific baseball town with great fans. They deserve better than what they’re stuck with right now.
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I had the Angels in both games for the Tuesday free opinion, so I’ll come right back with them here. Joe Saunders has been lousy lately, and at this point Brian Bannister is probably the better pitching option. But the bottom line is that the Halos have four straight wins, the Royals have eight straight losses, and with the Tuesday DH sweep tucked away, playing the Angels right back is the right move.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/21/09

A quick football note before turning to a baseball rumor mill that’s absolutely loaded right now. Today is Mountain West Conference Media Day here in Las Vegas. Steve Cofield and myself will be broadcasting live from Green Valley Ranch (12-3 PM, ESPN1100 in Las Vegas or http://werlv.com online), and it’s a great chance to get some insight on how the league’s programs stack up this season. Definitely worth checking out for anyone who wagers on college football!

Okay, there are all kinds of rumors flying around right now as we inch closer to the MLB trade deadline. I’ve been focusing mostly on the two big fish, Roy Halladay and Matt Holliday. Today, let’s focus on some of the other names that are being mentioned prominently.

It definitely appears as though Cliff Lee is available for the right package. The Indians southpaw hasn’t been able to repeat his phenomenal 2008 campaign, but he’s pitched much better than his ‘09 record would indicate. Lee is a legit #1 starter for most teams. He’s not the only Indian on the block, but he’s the only commodity that can land the team something of substance in return. The team in the best position to land Lee is Texas. The Rangers have tons of quality depth on the organizational chart, and Lee is a perfect fit for a staff that has pitched very well, but is sorely lacking an anchor.

The Orioles have made no secret that closer George Sherrill is obtainable, but word is that they’re asking for quite a bit in return. I like this approach by Baltimore. Sherrill has developed into a pretty reliable finisher, and with the team looming as a 2010 dark horse if the young pitching continues to develop, there’s no need to do any salary dumps. But they’re also wise to field offers for Sherrill as he’s not by any means indispensable. One team that is reportedly very interested is the Dodgers. Their bullpen has logged a ton of innings and Sherrill would be the ideal setup guy for Jonathan Broxton, as well as providing insurance should Broxton’s toe problem worsen. This is one case where overpaying might not be the worst idea in the world. The Dodgers have a great chance to get to the World Series, and my belief has always been that you pay a little extra for that needed piece to the puzzle if your team is already close.

The Cincinnati Reds aren’t going to strip their staff, but they are accepting offers for at least five of their current pitchers. The two most attractive available hurlers are Aaron Harang and closer Francisco Cordero. Harang fits nicely almost anywhere as a middle of the rotation innings eater. Cordero is having another very strong campaign and he could be a big pickup for a couple of teams. I’d like to see the Tigers go after Cordero. I have no faith in Fernando Rodney nor anyone else on that staff as a finisher, and with the Tigers in position to be in the playoffs, landing that ninth inning stud could be their ticket to big things come October.

Kevin Correia has had a good year for the Padres. He’s about as under the radar as it gets, but the fact is that Correia has always had decent potential and he’s finally managed to stay healthy enough to produce this season. The asking price here won’t be high at all, and I would think several teams should be getting a bid in with the Friars clearly ready to deal.

Finally, the weirdest note of the day. Mets skipper Jerry Manuel insists he’s not joking about utilizing pitcher Livan Hernandez as a backup at both 3B and 1B. That speaks volumes about the plight of the Mets. They have tons of injuries and a complete lack of organizational depth. That’s clearly why the Mets cannot be buyers at the deadline and instead should consider dealing a veteran or two for some minor league talent that can help down the road. As for right now, look for the Mets to sign Julio Lugo now that the Red Sox have cut ties with the veteran SS.
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The Angels and Royals were washed out on Monday, which means a twinbill tonight. I think the Halos have a good shot to win both ends. They’re facing the less than inspiring combo of Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen, which should mean some great AB for the offense. Sean O’Sullivan and Ervin Santana throw for the Angels, and the Angels have to be encouraged by the way Santana threw last time out. It’s not easy to win doubleheaders on the road, but it’s tough to envision KC taking both ends considering their horrendous current form. I’ll take my chances and go with the Angels twice today.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 7/20/09

Baseball is my favorite game as a fan, but as many of you already know, college football is by far my best sport as far as wagering is concerned. For those who are interested in obtaining my personal plays this season, please be sure to leave feedback and I’ll be happy to get back to you.
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Don’t look now, but the defending World Series champions are suddenly looking anything but vulnerable. The Philadelphia Phillies are officially on fire, heading into Monday night’s action riding an eight-game winning streak. The supposed weak spot on the team, starting pitching, has come together and the offense is absolutely raking the ball.

Ever since the Roy Halladay trade talk began, the Phillies have been identified as the most likely destination. They had the need and they have the prospects. While several other teams were being mentioned, the consensus seemed to be that Toronto would most likely end up working a swap with the Phillies. They’d get something decent in return, and they also wouldn’t have to worry about facing Halladay on a regular basis by trading him out of the American League.

The Phils may still be in the hunt, but the situation doesn’t look as desperate as it once did. Consequently, the Phillies may not be willing to part with as much as had been speculated. As it stands right now, I think it’s clear the Phillies are one of the two strongest teams in the NL, and I’d personally make them the favorite to win the pennant at this juncture. The offense is flat out nasty, and the emergence of J.A. Happ along with the improvement being shown by Joe Blanton has stabilized the staff. That’s not to say there isn’t room for improvement. But it’s hard to see anyone catching them in the NL East at this point. In fact, I’d have to say that the Phillies are no longer the favorite to land Halladay, although they’re likely still in the mix.
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The Red Sox and Yankees are bumper to bumper in the AL East, and there’s a great chance they will remain that way right until the final few games of the regular season. Thanks to some good decision making as far as the configuration of their pitching staff is concerned, the Yankees are in very good shape. Phil Hughes has been spectacular since moving to the bullpen, Phil Coke and Alfredo Aceves have been terrific, and Mariano Rivera is, well, Mariano Rivera. The rotation is a little iffy at the rear, but the 1-2 punch of Sabathia and Burnett looks solid and it appears as though Joba Chamberlain is finally finding his comfort zone. Andy Pettitte is a little erratic at this stage, but most teams would kill to have someone like him as their #4. Obviously, the Yankees can hit with anyone, and the defense seems to be their only potential liability now.

The Red Sox have the deepest staff, but the offense isn’t as potent as it’s been in the past, and the defense is down a tick as well. What concerns me most, however, is the stubbornness on the part of the organization as far as Clay Buchholz is concerned. I wrote a couple months ago that I felt the Red Sox should deal Brad Penny for whatever they can get and insert Buchholz in the rotation. They haven’t done so, and the result is that Buchholz has been winning games in Pawtucket, which is not in the AL East last time I checked.

Buchholz finally got a start over the weekend and responded with a rock solid effort that got him a win. His reward was a trip back to AAA. I’m sure he’ll be back at some point, but I’m maintaining that any innings he’s logging outside of Boston are a complete waste. Buchholz is the third best starter on the Red Sox right now. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are obviously the top of the rotation. But I’d put Buchholz ahead of John Smoltz, well ahead of Brad Penny, and yes, I know he’s an All-Star and he’s had a phenomenal year, but I’d put Buchholz ahead of Tim Wakefield as well. I’m not even bothering to include injured Daisuke Matsuzaka in the discussion. The bottom line is that Buchholz is ready, and when a pitcher has his level of stuff, he needs to get a chance for a prominent role.

I can’t figure the rationale here. But should this divisional race come down to the finish line and the Yankees happen to edge out the Red Sox, I fervently believe not promoting Buchholz sooner will be the crucial error that costs the Sox in the end. Of course, I’m hoping I’m dead wrong on this assessment and that Boston wins the division in a breeze. Regardless, I’ll maintain hope the Red Sox find a taker for Penny shortly, and that this discussion becomes moot.
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The Red Sox head to Texas for a series with the Rangers, and I like Boston’s chances tonight. The Rangers managed to pull out an extra inning win over the Twins on Sunday night, but they’re not a sharp team right now. Kevin Millwood is showing signs of wearing down while Boston’s John Smoltz is progressing positively as he hones his command. The Texas bullpen could be a little weary here, and the normally potent Rangers offense just isn’t that good right now. I’ll look for the Red Sox to get the victory tonight.