Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/29/09

The first tap out of the 2009 season has taken place. The Cleveland Indians basically tossed in the towel on the campaign with the first of what could be a series of deals designed to improve the team for next year. That’s not a bad idea, as the reality is that this team is simply not good enough to contend at this juncture, so it makes sense to start building for the future.

The one fly in that ointment is that the architects of whatever game plan the Indians have in mind are the same ones that got them into the muck they’re currently mired in. This makes no sense to me. If I’m the owner of a company that’s been failing and I decide it’s time for a new direction, the last people I want directing the overhaul are the same ones that got the company into the sinkhole to begin with.

As for the deal that was consummated over the weekend, the Tribe sent Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for Chris Perez and a player to be named later. It’s not the worst trade of all time for the Indians, but I’ll make the Cardinals a clear cut winner in this swap. DeRosa is a very useful jack of all trades. He can be plugged in virtually anywhere on the field and he’s a damn good hitter. Since the start of the 2006 season, when DeRosa finally earned an everyday role with the Rangers, DeRosa has hit for a solid .289 BA. His power emerged last year when he socked 21 long balls for the Cubs, and he’s on pace to establish new career highs in HR and RBI this season, despite struggling early in the campaign. And the fact is the Indians got him for almost nothing in the off season swap with the Cubs.

Chris Perez has been groomed to be a closer since being drafted in 2006, but he’s yet to establish good enough control to be entrusted with protecting a late lead. He clearly has the stuff to be a finisher but whether he’ll ever master the strike zone is still up in the air. The Indians need the bullpen help, but they’ve got lots of cash tied up in Kerry Wood, and that price tag will make moving Wood difficult. Perez is not a terrible pickup, but the real need for Cleveland is a prospect who can eventually take a spot in their rotation, and that’s not Perez.

It looks to me like the Indians jumped the gun and went for the first offer that came their way. Perez could turn out to be a stud closer down the road, but right now he’s an unknown quantity. DeRosa is an established sure thing. To what should be the surprise of no one, this looks like a clear cut win for the Cardinals.
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The Mets are a bad baseball team right now. They’ve been besieged by injuries and the reality is that they’re becoming more and more of a long shot to remain in contention in the NL East. The rotation is missing a couple of pieces and the offense is nearly devoid of power.

That said, their best player is doing every opposition pitcher he faces a tremendous favor with his new offensive approach. David Wright admits that he’s looking to be more of a gap to gap line drive hitter than a slugger, and I think that’s a huge mistake on his part. Wright’s batting average is up, but his production is down. It’s not like Wright was a feast or famine guy the past several years. He was a .309 career hitter coming into this season, and was a sure bet to be somewhere around the 30 HR mark as well. Add in lots of speed and 40+ doubles four years running, and there’s no question the Mets 3B was established as one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.

Wright is hardly an automatic out this season. But he’s got only four homers and I will guarantee you that every pitcher he’s faced is delighted to not have much fear of Wright nailing him for a four-bagger. Considering the complete lack of power on the Mets right now, Wright’s approach may look okay in the box score, but it’s hurting the team.

There are two solutions to the situation. One is that Wright scraps the current mindset and goes back to pulling the ball more. His BA might drop some, but his production will get back to where it’s supposed to be. The other option is to simply make Wright the leadoff hitter. I know that seems preposterous knowing the power potential Wright owns. But if he’s going to maintain his current approach, he actually is far better suited to that leadoff spot.
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Here’s a look at the free opinion for Monday’s action. The Giants continue to be a major surprise in the NL West. The pitching has been solid, and that’s clearly their primary strength. Of late, they’re getting some timely hitting as well. Tonight it’s their ace, Tim Lincecum, on the mound as they open a set with the Cardinals. Brad Thompson has done serviceable work for the Redbirds, but he’ll be hard pressed to match Lincecum, who’s on a roll. Not much value in the number as Lincecum is a big public pitcher, but I still lean the Giants way tonight.

Published in: on June 29, 2009 at 4:55 am Leave a Comment

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