Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/30/09

At least it was fun while it lasted. I know there are three months still remaining before the curtain comes down on the 2009 regular season. And a quick look at the current standings in the AL West would certainly lead one to believe there’s a great chance for a dynamite three-team duel for the division title between the Angels, Rangers and Mariners. But I can’t help but believe that this race is already over and that what takes place hereafter is little more than a mere formality. The Angels look like a cinch to pull away and win the division in cakewalk fashion.

The Halos were highly vulnerable early thanks to a series of injuries that left them with a very depleted starting rotation. Fact is, I doubt that the starting pitching will be a great source of strength for this team, and with a shaky bullpen, let’s just say that the Angels aren’t exactly built for the playoffs. But I don’t see any way that their three AL West cohorts have the stuff to wrest the title away from the Angels.

The Rangers have gotten unexpectedly good pitching, as Mike Maddux has worked wonders with a very ordinary looking rotation. But he’s not a magician and barring something unforeseen, I have to believe this corps will suffer a second half fade as the innings pile up. Then there’s the Texas offense, which just isn’t producing at anywhere near the level they did a season ago. A healthy return by Josh Hamilton would certainly help, but the Rangers were an amazing offensive entry last year and they just aren’t going to duplicate those numbers this time around. While there’s little question that this is a franchise finally heading in the right direction, they’re still a year away from being legitimate contenders.

Seattle is still on the right side of .500, but I can’t see how that continues much longer. Felix Hernandez has arrived as a dominating #1, but the rest of the rotation is very questionable. Brandon Morrow should continue to improve, but I don’t expect Jason Vargas or Garrett Olson to keep throwing as well as they have. Jarrod Washburn is likely to get dealt, which given the state of the Mariners farm system, seems like a very good idea. Erik Bedard will come back from his latest injury at some point, and he’ll probably look good for a few starts before getting hurt again. Bedard has loads of talent, but he just cannot stay healthy. Even if Seattle maintains a solid rotation, the offense is unlikely to produce enough for them to thrive. The injury to Adrian Beltre is huge. Beltre had really come on following his usual lousy start, and was on 45/137 roll through Sunday’s action. But now it’s off to the operating table for Beltre as he gets his elbow repaired and he won’t be back until September, if at all. Aside from surprising Russell Branyan, there’s precious little power on this team, and the fact is Branyan has never kept it together for an entire season.

As for the Oakland A’s, they’re just about toast already. Matt Holliday will almost certainly be dealt soon as the A’s continue their latest rebuilding procedure. And with that offense that’s currently in in Oakland, let’s just say they need lots of rebuilding.

So it looks to me like clear sailing for the Angels, although I don’t see them having what it takes to win come October.
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Mike Hampton is back from his latest stint on the disabled list to make a start for the Astros. Hampton had been pitching pretty well before getting dinged up physically, and there’s no reason he can’t handle the feeble San Diego offense. Josh Banks makes the start here for the Padres, and he simply hits too many bats with fringy stuff. I can see the heart of the Houston order doing some damage here, and I’ll look for the Astros to win this one.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/29/09

The first tap out of the 2009 season has taken place. The Cleveland Indians basically tossed in the towel on the campaign with the first of what could be a series of deals designed to improve the team for next year. That’s not a bad idea, as the reality is that this team is simply not good enough to contend at this juncture, so it makes sense to start building for the future.

The one fly in that ointment is that the architects of whatever game plan the Indians have in mind are the same ones that got them into the muck they’re currently mired in. This makes no sense to me. If I’m the owner of a company that’s been failing and I decide it’s time for a new direction, the last people I want directing the overhaul are the same ones that got the company into the sinkhole to begin with.

As for the deal that was consummated over the weekend, the Tribe sent Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for Chris Perez and a player to be named later. It’s not the worst trade of all time for the Indians, but I’ll make the Cardinals a clear cut winner in this swap. DeRosa is a very useful jack of all trades. He can be plugged in virtually anywhere on the field and he’s a damn good hitter. Since the start of the 2006 season, when DeRosa finally earned an everyday role with the Rangers, DeRosa has hit for a solid .289 BA. His power emerged last year when he socked 21 long balls for the Cubs, and he’s on pace to establish new career highs in HR and RBI this season, despite struggling early in the campaign. And the fact is the Indians got him for almost nothing in the off season swap with the Cubs.

Chris Perez has been groomed to be a closer since being drafted in 2006, but he’s yet to establish good enough control to be entrusted with protecting a late lead. He clearly has the stuff to be a finisher but whether he’ll ever master the strike zone is still up in the air. The Indians need the bullpen help, but they’ve got lots of cash tied up in Kerry Wood, and that price tag will make moving Wood difficult. Perez is not a terrible pickup, but the real need for Cleveland is a prospect who can eventually take a spot in their rotation, and that’s not Perez.

It looks to me like the Indians jumped the gun and went for the first offer that came their way. Perez could turn out to be a stud closer down the road, but right now he’s an unknown quantity. DeRosa is an established sure thing. To what should be the surprise of no one, this looks like a clear cut win for the Cardinals.
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The Mets are a bad baseball team right now. They’ve been besieged by injuries and the reality is that they’re becoming more and more of a long shot to remain in contention in the NL East. The rotation is missing a couple of pieces and the offense is nearly devoid of power.

That said, their best player is doing every opposition pitcher he faces a tremendous favor with his new offensive approach. David Wright admits that he’s looking to be more of a gap to gap line drive hitter than a slugger, and I think that’s a huge mistake on his part. Wright’s batting average is up, but his production is down. It’s not like Wright was a feast or famine guy the past several years. He was a .309 career hitter coming into this season, and was a sure bet to be somewhere around the 30 HR mark as well. Add in lots of speed and 40+ doubles four years running, and there’s no question the Mets 3B was established as one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.

Wright is hardly an automatic out this season. But he’s got only four homers and I will guarantee you that every pitcher he’s faced is delighted to not have much fear of Wright nailing him for a four-bagger. Considering the complete lack of power on the Mets right now, Wright’s approach may look okay in the box score, but it’s hurting the team.

There are two solutions to the situation. One is that Wright scraps the current mindset and goes back to pulling the ball more. His BA might drop some, but his production will get back to where it’s supposed to be. The other option is to simply make Wright the leadoff hitter. I know that seems preposterous knowing the power potential Wright owns. But if he’s going to maintain his current approach, he actually is far better suited to that leadoff spot.
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Here’s a look at the free opinion for Monday’s action. The Giants continue to be a major surprise in the NL West. The pitching has been solid, and that’s clearly their primary strength. Of late, they’re getting some timely hitting as well. Tonight it’s their ace, Tim Lincecum, on the mound as they open a set with the Cardinals. Brad Thompson has done serviceable work for the Redbirds, but he’ll be hard pressed to match Lincecum, who’s on a roll. Not much value in the number as Lincecum is a big public pitcher, but I still lean the Giants way tonight.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/26/09

Let’s close out the week with a look at potential NL sellers over the next several weeks as the march toward the trade deadline continues.

The Nationals are the most obvious sellers. They were eliminated from contention in spring training, and their eyes on the future. The idea for Washington right now is to build the organization. They’ve got some good young pitching with Jordan Zimmerman already showing well against big league hitting, and there’s reason to believe Ross Detwiler has a good future. Stephen Strasburg will hopefully be signed before too much time passes. But if the future arms look good, the bats don’t. This team needs to pick up some good young position talent. Adam Dunn should be offered for the best package of prospects. He’s really their only attractive bargaining chip at this point, and considering how extensive this team’s needs are, they need to explore moving Dunn.

The Pirates have already dealt away one of their legit talents in Nate McLouth, but I don’t think they’re done. I think there’s a strong possibility Freddy Sanchez ends the season wearing a different uniform. Sanchez has managed to stay healthy and he would draw interest. Teams looking for bullpen help might contact the Bucs regarding Matt Capps or John Grabow. If the Pirates figure they can realize a profit dealing anyone on their roster, they’re up for a deal.

Despite their remarkable recent hot streak, I still believe the Rockies are potential sellers. They’ve been showcasing Garrett Atkins in hopes of sparking interest. But the player most likely to generate big interest is Huston Street. The closer has had a good year and his stock is back up after a down 2008 campaign. I’m not convinced at all that Colorado is suddenly a wild card contender off their recent play, and any regression to their norm should convince management it’s in their best long term interests to be selling.

The Padres are in dire need of a legitimate prospect or three. They already tried to move Jake Peavy, and although that deal with the White Sox fell through via Peavy’s veto, he was still on the market. Unfortunately, the injury to Peavy ends any possibility of a headline deal. And the bad news for the Friars is that they don’t really have any other marquee talent aside from Adrian Gonzalez, and I don’t see San Diego offering him. While I still think the Padres will try and make a couple of deals, don’t look for anything that’s of a marquee nature.
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Here’s a look at Friday’s free opinion. Remember that my Saturday and Sunday free plays are available on a recorded message at 1-888-567-7660.

The streaking Marlins try for their sixth straight win tonight as they open their weekend rivalry series with the Rays. Tampa is coming on strong, as they continue to score loads of runs and they’re getting strong pitching from James Shields. But Josh Johnson has been money all season long for the Marlins and here’s an opportunity to back Johnson at dog money. Tough game for sure, but at the price, I think the Marlins are worth a shot.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/25/09

Today’s focus is on potential NL buyers as we head into July. Unlike the AL, things are really wide open in the National League, and I have a feeling that we’ll see a good deal of activity on several fronts. Don’t expect many blockbusters, but my opinion is that several teams will look to add a piece here or there that could make the difference in what looms as a potentially dynamite battle for the Wild Card.

The Phillies clearly need a starting pitcher, preferably a righty. I don’t think they’ll be able to land a big fish. One might not be available, and beyond that, the only really enticing prospect available would be OF Dominic Brown. He’s a five-tooler, though, and he’s having a decent campaign in Hi-A. I doubt the Phillies would part with Brown, however, unless it’s for something strong. So they may be setting their sights significantly lower. Brad Penny has been rumored as a possible target.

The Mets have no choice but to be buyers if they want to make a push for the playoffs. Their injury situation has forced their hand, and the fact is, they’ll have to pay heavily as everyone else knows they’re under the gun. Making matters worse is that they don’t have a deep system. Would the Mets consider dealing top prospect Fernando Martinez for what is far from a sure shot to get to October? If it were me in charge, I’d stay with what I have now and hope for the best.

The Marlins ought to be buyers. In that they’re the Marlins, they probably won’t, as that might mean spending a few bucks. But maybe they’ll surprise everyone and make a run at a quality reliever or a veteran 3B who wouldn’t cost them much. Melvin Mora comes to mind, as I believe the Orioles would deal him for a decent prospect and be satisfied.

The Braves have been buyers in the past and if they believe they have enough to stay in the race this season, look for them to make a move. Nothing along the lines of the Mark Teixeira deal from a couple seasons back, but I can see Atlanta trying to land another OF. In other words, someone to take over RF for Jeff Francoeur.

The Cardinals are said to be interested in Matt Holliday, and that’s easy to understand. My guess is that they would have to part with 3B Brett Wallace to get Oakland to deal. That’s a huge price to pay for what might be a two-month rental. But the Cards may well feel it’s worth it. If Chris Carpenter can stay healthy and this team gets to the post season, they’ll have a big chance to make the World Series.

The team I feel is most likely to buy is the Giants. They’re stamping themselves as legit contenders thanks to outstanding pitching, and they’re clearly contenders if they can add an outstanding bat. I believe San Francisco is the destination for Matt Holliday. He’s a perfect fit for the team and they have enough of a talent pool to be able to afford moving a strong prospect. Also bear in mind that with a new power structure at the executive level, GM Brian Sabean may well need to make the playoffs to stay employed. Angel Villalona and Nick Noonan are position prospects that may rev up Oakland’s Billy Beane. I really feel as though the Giants are the current favorite to land Holliday based on all the variables.

There aren’t many likely sellers in the NL this season, but I’ll go with that rundown tomorrow.

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The Phillies were shut down by Matt Garza Wednesday night, but they should find the serves of Andy Sonnanstine much more to their liking in the series finale. Rookie Antonio Bastardo’s fly ball tendencies are playing better on the road than at home, which is not surprising. He’ll have a tough challenge with the high scoring Rays, but I think he has the edge over Sonnanstine, and the Phils continue to be a force on the road. I’ll go with Philly as small road dogs.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/24/09

I took a look at some likely AL buyers in yesterday’s column. Today, I’ll turn it around and examine teams more likely to be in sell mode as we hit the mid-season mark of the 2009 campaign.

The Baltimore Orioles are clearly getting better. They have a solid corps of offensive talent already on the big club, and the farm system has some outstanding pitching that’s not far away. This team could start making some real noise as early as next season. But I would think the O’s might not mind stockpiling a little more young talent, so if they can find suitors for any of their more dispensable veterans, I think they’d jump at the opportunity. Baltimore doesn’t figure to do anything major, but they could move a veteran backup type to a contender for the right price.

The Cleveland Indians could be very busy, and in fact they should be looking to make as many deals as they can. There are very few precious commodities on this team right now, and the Tribe ought to try and move at least a couple of veterans for some pitching prospects. I’d put Jhonny Peralta up for grabs, as he’s a guy they could score something decent for in return. Peralta is only 27, and while he’s clearly got his flaws, a SS with .270, 20 plus HR capability is a valuable commodity. I also believe there will be at least a few teams that believe they can get more production out of Peralta in a better system. Kelly Shoppach is another potential trade piece. With Carlos Santana on the way, Shoppach is expendable, and decent defensive backstops with power are always in demand. Basically, I’m of the belief that the Indians should entertain all offers at this juncture, as they’re looking more and more like a team that needs an overhaul. That could change if they suddenly get hot following an almost certain managerial change, but I’ve arrived at the conclusion this team has simply been overrated and they’re really not very good.

The Seattle Mariners started their rebuilding process in the off season, and I expect them to try and make a few more moves toward the trade deadline. The Mariners need to keep building the system, which isn’t very strong right now. The most attractive bait will be lefty Erik Bedard if he’s healthy, although I’m convinced Bedard won’t bring as much as they’d like in any deal. Let’s face it, while he’s got a ton of talent, Bedard is just not a real gamer and I don’t see any team overpaying for his services, even with the shortage of quality starting pitching on the market.

That brings me to the Oakland A’s. I expect them to be sellers, if for no other reason than that’s simply their way. But it also makes sense. The A’s have some tremendous young pitching and the idea now has to be to get some bats to help this team make a real push for the post-season in 2010 and/or 2011. And the A’s have the guy to deal in Matt Holliday. While his numbers are down considerably from where they were in Colorado, it’s also important to note that Holliday is in an awful lineup in Oakland. Surround him with some guys that can protect him and there’s no doubt in my mind he’s good for .300 with 30 HR. I’m sure several GM’s feel the same way, and given the thin pool of available big time talent this season, it sure seems likely that Billy Beane ought to be able to swing a sweet deal for Holliday sometime in the next handful of weeks.

I’ll take a look at potential NL buyers tomorrow.
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The Indians finally won a game Tuesday night, although they tried their best to give it away at the finish line. Carl Pavano has been lit up in his last two starts and may not be 100% physically, so that pathetic Tribe bullpen figures to be involved here. The Pirates are on a losing streak, which certainly makes laying a price dicey. But Duke has been very strong at home and I expect the Bucs to even up the series with the win this evening.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/23/09

We’re closing in on the halfway mark of the 2009 baseball season, so I’ll spend the rest of this week sizing up which teams will be buyers or sellers, and I’ll offer up a few ideas of what these teams should try to do. I’ll get things started in the American League with the teams I feel should be buying.

The Red Sox sure look like the team to beat in the AL right now. They’re four games better than the Yankees and Tigers for the overall best record, and they appear to be getting stronger. John Smoltz makes his Sox debut this week, David Ortiz has found his stroke, they’re about to get Jed Lowrie back (although Nick Green has been a revelation at SS) and Clay Buchholz is still waiting in the wings for his opportunity to crack the starting rotation. Nevertheless, Boston could still use another OF bat. The popular theory is that they will trade Brad Penny. That’s a possibility, but I think Penny’s $5 million price tag makes it unlikely he goes unless it’s as part of a package where a trade partner has to take him to get the hot prospect the Sox may be dangling. My guess is that Daniel Bard could be that prospect. He’s a prototype closer, and he’s looked very good since being called up. The Red Sox could well become players in the Matt Holliday sweepstakes if Oakland decides to sell him off.

The Yankees are always potential buyers, and with their uncertain starting pitching, they’ll likely be looking for help. The system is pretty barren, but Melky Cabrera’s stock has gone back up thanks to his solid start, and I would think he’d be the bait in a swap for a decent arm. The problem for the Yankees is that there may not be many good pitchers available.

The Blue Jays have to decide whether or not they think they have a chance to make the playoffs. Considering they’re one game out of the wild card, I have to think they’re buying, although the next two weeks could go a long way toward determining whether they’re in it for the long haul. Toronto obviously needs a healthy veteran pitcher who can eat up innings and take the heat off all those rookies currently logging innings for the Jays. Jon Garland is someone the Jays might be able to target. He’s gone six or more innings in all but three of his 14 starts for the Diamondbacks, and he’s also 6-0 lifetime at Rogers Centre.

The Rays should deal one of their many fine prospects for a closer. They’re getting by with a committee right now, but they really need a true ninth inning guy. Huston Street might be off the market thanks to the surge by the Rockies, but for the right price, I could see, for instance, the Reds parting with Francisco Cordero.

The Tigers are in good shape right now atop the AL Central, but they’ve got major problems toward the back of their rotation. I know Jonathan Sanchez has been a flop in San Francisco, but I still like his arm and wonder if a change in scenery might be the key for the southpaw. The Tigers would love to unload Magglio Ordonez and the Giants need a bat. I really like this deal both ways, actually. The Giants can afford to part with Sanchez as they’ve got an abundance of young pitching talent coming through the system. Ordonez is clearly in decline, but he’s worth taking a chance on for a few months in hopes of a temporary resurgence.

The White Sox need a bat, preferably one who plays 3B. Garrett Atkins has had a terrible year for the Rockies and has basically lost his job, so he’s definitely available. The Rockies would undoubtedly like to fortify their bullpen and the Chisox have some arms to deal. If Kenny Williams and Dan O’Dowd haven’t talked yet, they ought to.

The Texas Rangers are still in first place in the AL West. The shocker is that they’re riding high thanks to their pitching, and the fact is they actually could use a bat. Josh Hamilton can’t stay healthy this season, Chris Davis might be better off in the minors right now and I’m just not wild about the David Murphy/Marlon Byrd OF combo. Texas has an incredibly deep system right now, with prospects galore to dangle. No one has mentioned the Rangers as a possible destination for Matt Holliday, but I would definitely not rule them out as a potential player. If they set their sights slightly lower, I feel confident they could pry Adam Dunn away from the Nationals. The bottom line is that, even though the Rangers are built for the future, there’s no reason they need to ignore the present as they’ve got a legit chance to win the AL West if they can add one potent hitter.

Back on Wednesday with AL sellers.

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The Rockies were my top play Monday night, and they came through by blowing away the Angels. This team is on a run that’s very reminiscent of the one they put together back in 2007. Ubaldo Jimenez has been tremendous lately and he has to rate the edge over Halos rookie Sean O’Sullivan. The Angels have now lost three in a row following their own hot streak. There’s not much value in the price, but there’s also not much reason to get off the Rockies express right now.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/22/09

Five rookie recalls to look at this week, along with the free MLB opinion for Monday night.

The most intriguing of the prospects getting their baptismal fire in the big leagues is unquestionably Kyle Blanks. The top-rated Padres positional prospect is enormous. Blanks is listed at 6′6″‘, 280 and it’s definitely not an exaggeration. The Padres are obviously hoping Blanks develops into a big time run producer, and while he’s got a long way to go, he’s clearly got possibilities. Blanks is blocked at 1B by Adrian Gonzalez, so the Padres are moving him to the OF to get his bat in the lineup. He’ll have to pay close attention to conditioning, as it’s easy to see Blanks having problems staying under three bills. He moves pretty well for a big man, although speed will never be his forte. Right now, Blanks hasn’t quite mastered the art of getting his entire body into his swing, so he’s got lots of work to do to capitalize on his HR potential. Blanks also might get overmatched against lefties. But he’s got good plate discipline, and in an organization nearly devoid of quality offensive talent, he’s the one to watch. I would not expect a great deal from him this season, but his ceiling is high enough that a decent FAAB bid in keeper leagues seems warranted.

The Giants promoted Matt Downs and sent down Emmanuel Burriss, and it looks Downs has a good chance to stick with the big club. Downs profiles as the quintessential utility guy. He’s lacking outstanding tools, but does a little of everything and can play almost anywhere. Downs is a grinder, which isn’t a shock considering his status as a 36th round pick out of Alabama in 2006. But he’s got a little speed and some occasional sock, and most of all, he’s just one of those guys who knows how to play the game. I don’t see Downs having a great deal of fantasy value, although he could be nice depth for deep NL-only owners.

Mike Carp has gotten the call from the Mariners and did a nice job with a couple of starts this weekend. Carp had put up okay but not outstanding numbers in the Mets organization after getting drafted in the ninth round back in 2004. He had apparently fallen out of favor with Mets management, with rumors of an attitude problem and poor conditioning basically knocking him off their radar screen. But after being thrown into the off season J.J. Putz deal, Carp seems to have turned a corner with his new organization. Carp doesn’t project as a star. He’s got no speed and is not real handy with the leather. But Carp does have some power and could find a home as a platoon type on a good team, perhaps as a regular 1B on a weaker squad. Consider a small bid in a deep AL-only league.

The Blue Jays continue to run a pitching shuttle between Toronto and Las Vegas, thanks to a glut of injuries on their big league staff. The latest new arrival is southpaw Brad Mills. Drafted out of Arizona in the ‘07 fourth round, Mills doesn’t appear ready to contribute much in the majors just yet, but he’s a pretty good prospect. Mills is not overpowering but he’s got a big league changeup and a good curve. He’s also got a deceptive 3/4 delivery that looks like it could be tough to figure out. Mills throws mostly high 80’s heat, so he’ll have to be crafty to thrive against good hitters and his tendency to pitch high in the strike zone could leave him vulnerable to long balls. I see Mills being good enough down the road to claim a back of the rotation spot, but I wouldn’t count on much from him just yet.

Arturo Figaro is the last of this week’s rookie recalls, and he had a successful debut with the Tigers. Figaro was originally signed by the Dodgers, but now he’s getting to play with his cousin, Detroit closer Fernando Rodney. Figaro has plenty of sink on his fastball and he throws a nice changeup. His breaking ball still needs quite a bit of work. The Tigers are hurting toward the back of their rotation, so Figaro has earned himself at least a couple more starts with his solid first effort. I don’t see him being worth an investment just yet, however,
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The Cubs have suddenly snapped out of their funk. Three straight rallies for walk-off wins followed by a wire to wire win on Sunday, and the Cubs are now a hot team as they head to Atlanta. Javier Vazquez rates the edge over Ryan Dempster as far as the pitchers are concerned. But Vazquez has not exactly been lucky at home, and at the price, I see solid value in backing the suddenly streaking Cubs for the Monday comp opinion.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/19/09

I thought I’d write about a few more largely unowned fantasy players who could have some value in the short term and possibly beyond. These suggestions are basically for the last spot or two on your roster if you’re in a strong and deep league. Too many owners ignore those back of the roster spots, and having a decent contributor there can really pay off in the long run. These are the lightning in a bottle spots, where a low risk pickup can occasionally yield an unexpectedly high reward.

First on the list is Maicer Izturis, who has multi-position eligibility with the Angels. Izturis has made his way onto a good number of deep league rosters thanks to the demotion of struggling Howie Kendrick to the minors. I would think Kendrick will be back once he gets his bat straightened out. But in the meantime, Izturis has some nice value. He won’t deliver much power, but Izturis should hit for an okay BA and will steal a base here and there. It’s also worth noting that his success hitting with men on base hasn’t gone unnoticed by Halos skipper Mike Scioscia. Izturis hit third on Wednesday night, and while that was a by-product of Torii Hunter sitting out, it also indicates Scioscia has no problem putting Izturis in a key production spot in the lineup. Izturis figures to get all the 2B starts vs. righties, with Sean Rodriguez getting a chance to hit vs. southpaws.

I’ll be interested to see how Jeremy Accardo ends up being used in Toronto. At first glance, his save Thursday looks like a fluke. The Blue Jays opted to use Jason Frasor in an eighth inning jam and then pinch-hit for him in the ninth inning. B.J. Ryan appeared to be in line for the save, but after putting one on and getting one out, Cito Gaston decided to give the ball to Accardo. The initial assessment is that this was simply a case of Accardo being the last available option. But upon further examination, that may not necessarily be the case and Accardo could well become part of a temp committee for the Blue Jays. Remember, Accardo had 30 saves and was basically lights out for this team in 2007 when Ryan got hurt. He’s been doing a good enough job here in Las Vegas, notching nine saves for the 51’s. I sure wouldn’t gamble a high waiver priority on Accardo, but if he’s a free agent and you’re carrying a pitcher who’s not really contributing, there are worse gambles you could make.

Carlos Gonzalez hit one out Thursday for the Rockies. My assumption is that he’s long gone in any quality keeper league. Gonzalez is a big time prospect and the fact he’s with the Rockies makes him a terrific down the road fantasy prospect. But in annual leagues, his worth is considerably less. That said, I wouldn’t immediately dismiss Gonzalez for the rest of this season. I don’t see him delivering a high BA as he still K’s too often. But he’s got some power, might run on occasion, and there is the still viable Coors factor. For those looking for a platoon OF, keep an eye on Gonzalez.

Last up on this rundown is a surprise from the 2008 campaign who’s fallen off the map this year. David Murphy was a find last year. While he did not have one spectacular category, he contributed across the board and was a late round draft day consideration this season. But Murphy got off to a terrible start and was rightfully scrap heaped nearly everywhere. Murphy has since rebounded, however, and with a nice run over the last few weeks, he’s suddenly got some value once again. That could change once Josh Hamilton returns, but I’m not sure that will necessarily be the case. In fact, it could well be Marlon Byrd that sees the biggest reduction in playing time when Hamilton gets off the DL. In the meantime, Murphy is a good end of the roster grab for use against righties.
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Scott Feldman is looking to stay perfect on the road as the Rangers visit San Francisco. Feldman has made four road starts and has won them all. There’s nothing wrong with Randy Johnson right now, as the Big Unit has been sharp lately. But there’s not much doubt about which team has the better offense, and with Feldman continuing to register mostly quality starts, I’ll look the Rangers way tonight.

Saturday and Sunday’s comp opinions are available on my free pick line, which is 1-888-567-7660. I’ll return on Monday with a look at this week’s rookie recalls. Enjoy the weekend!

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/18/09

This may sound like it’s chest-thumping, but I’ve got some pretty strong fantasy baseball credentials. I won’t bore anyone with a lengthy rundown of the achievements. Suffice to say I’ve been playing for close to 20 years in virtually all formats, and I’ve got a good idea of what I’m doing.

That’s also why much of the fantasy advice that’s dispensed at various websites kind of cracks me up. It’s not that it’s necessarily bad advice, but much of it is little more than useless advice. Is the information potentially valuable to a casual player in a soft league? Sure it is, but those aren’t the owners perusing those websites. Therefore the analysis should be geared to hard core fantasy players in tough leagues where some legitimately expert advice may be needed.

Here’s an example of what I mean. Toronto closer Scott Downs went down with a knee injury in Tuesday’s game against the Phillies. Virtually every site I visited was quick to urge readers to go get Jason Frasor right away with Downs a good bet to land on the DL, which in fact he did on Wednesday.

The suggestion is okay in that Frasor seems like one of only two possible options to be the interim closer for the Blue Jays, with the other being BJ Ryan. Since Frasor has enjoyed the far better campaign, he’s the logical frontrunner, although a committee with Ryan based on matchups is certainly a possibility.

The problem I have with this advice is that neither pitcher was likely available in any quality league, and I’m talking about 5×5 leagues where holds don’t matter. In a good league of any depth, understudy closers with good numbers aren’t largely available, so that takes Frasor out of the mix. As for Ryan, he was drafted in almost every league, and in deeper leagues, owners are generally reluctant to let go of drafted closers even after they lose their jobs.

My aim, when I’m writing about fantasy baseball, is to focus on players I know are likely available in deep leagues with sharp owners. That’s why I spend time running down the first-time recalls every Monday. My take on these players is frequently exactly opposite of what is widely suggested elsewhere, and while I will certainly miss on occasion, I feel safe in stating that I’ve got a better batting average than most on the newcomers.

As for advice on veterans, I’m simply amused at how many players I can virtually guarantee are absolutely NOT available in a deep quality league, yet are the recommended grabs by the “experts” authoring the columns. In my 15-team mixed annual league, the highest rated free agent position player available right now (based on Yahoo rankings) is Ryan Spilborghs. The only other player in the top 500 that’s out there is Miguel Olivo. In other words, if someone is writing for the owners in my league, they need to come up with someone under the radar. Just because a player may only be owned in 25% of all Yahoo leagues doesn’t mean he’s available in quality leagues. Those numbers are based on all leagues, including shallow public leagues where half the owners gave up two weeks after the draft. Thus, my contention that the majority of the info dispensed is useless.

Okay, talk is cheap, so here’s a suggested move for owners in real leagues with sharp competitors. Take a shot on Giants 1B Travis Ishikawa. He’s a candidate for a lightning in a bottle strike. Perhaps not for the rest of the season, but at least for a little bit. Ishikawa has more power than he’s shown so far this season. More importantly, he’s a streak hitter and he’s getting hot right now. Oh, and he’s available almost everywhere. Chances are that if you’re in one of those solid leagues, the last spot on your roster is someone who’s hardly indispensable. Grab Ishikawa and gamble on him running together a hot month.
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Here’s the free opinion for Thursday. As always, bear in mind these are not my strongest plays. If you want those, leave your contact info and I’ll get in touch.

Rookie Vin Mazzaro is off to a dynamite start for the A’s. But he’s also been a bit fortunate. All 14 of the hits off Mazzaro have been singles, which means that’s he’s been largely able to avoid the high stress situations that really test a rookie’s mettle. Mazzaro draws a tough foe tonight, as the Dodgers have been outstanding at home. Oakland doesn’t exactly crush lefties, so this could be a good night for LA’s Randy Wolf. I’m not a big fan of laying substantial prices, so this isn’t a strong opinion, but the Dodgers seem like the right side to me.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 6/17/09

Maybe the seeding wasn’t so bad after all. I’m one of those observers who didn’t feel Texas was the best team in this field, despite the Longhorns being seeded #1 overall. Following Tuesday’s action, I might need to start eating a little crow, as the Longhorns came from way back against one of the nation’s best pitchers to earn their second straight dramatic win.

I really thought this one was over early. Arizona State had their ace on the mound and Texas was disintegrating in a woeful first few innings that saw the Sun Devils jump out to a 6-0 lead. Mike Leake, a dominant college pitcher fresh off getting drafted #8 overall by the Cincinnati Reds, was rolling with five K’s in three innings. ASU looked like a virtual cinch to move along in the winner’s bracket against a suspect Texas offense, and the normally efficient Longhorns defense was playing poorly as well.

Unfortunately for Leake, this proved not to be his finest hour. Texas started hitting him all over Rosenblatt Stadium, the Sun Devils got completely shut down by the Texas bullpen and ten unanswered runs later, it was Texas still unbeaten and the Sun Devils heading into a tough loser’s bracket showdown with North Carolina. And all of a sudden, my ASU pick to win it all is in deep trouble.

This result was a big win for the books, by the way. The oddsmakers opened #5 ASU as pretty substantial chalk against the top seeded Longhorns, and the money kept pushing the number higher. Couple with the stunning early exit by highly regarded Cal State Fullerton, the accountants are collecting all the cash in this CWS and the bettors are largely licking their wounds right now.
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Tonight’s Rays-Rockies pitching matchup favors the Rox, as Aaron Cook has been outstanding of late for Colorado. TB lefty David Price is having control problems and that’s led to very high pitch counts and early exits, although he’s managed to avoid big innings. Those issues prevent me from taking a strong stance on the Rays tonight. Nevertheless, it’s a decent spot for the road dog. The Rays are now winners of six straight and their offense is hot, while the Rockies finally dropped one last night and could be ready to regress. That gets me tilting toward the Rays as road dogs tonight.