Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/29/09

The NCAA Baseball Tournament gets underway today, so here’s a preview of each of the 16 regionals. I’m keeping this brief, as I don’t feel like writing a novel on this. But rest assured these are not wild guesses. I’ve done pretty well in this tourney the last couple of years, and I’m confident of doing so again this season.

Before getting into the rundown, a quick thought on the job done by the selection committee. HORRIBLE!!! I vow never to again complain about the hoops committee, as at least they have a clue. These bozos had no consistent criteria. They evidently used the RPI at some points and completely ignored it at other times. Baylor, Oklahoma State and Southern Miss in ahead of Eastern Illinois, Missouri State and URI is awful. Cal State Fullerton as the second overall seed is impossible. How does a team finish five games out in their own conference and get a second overall seed? Okay, that’s it for the rant, here’s the preview. Note that the #1 seed in each of the regionals has home field advantage.

Clemson should win their regional. Alabama lost its best player in the SEC Tourney and that probably dooms them here. As much as I disagree with Oklahoma State getting an invite, they are a very talented team and if their pitching comes around, they’re a legit dark horse. But I like Clemson to emerge and move on.

East Carolina has a big home field advantage, but I’m going with South Carolina to advance to the Super. I can’t give you anything really substantive here, I just think the Gamecocks are the better team. ECU can really bang the ball and the crowd will be nuts, but I’m taking the SEC school.

I’m also going to take a shot against Florida in their regional. The Gators have a very young staff and could be vulnerable, even in their opening round contest with a determined Bethune-Cookman entry. Miami has the stuff to win this sector and I like the way the Hurricane staff matches up with Florida’s lefty-laden offense.

Florida State probably has the biggest home field edge of any of the host teams and I don’t see a great challenge for the Seminoles here. Georgia flattened out badly late and Marist is overmatched. Ohio State is the dark horse and if they win their opener against the Bulldogs, they could be live.

Georgia Tech looks to be the favorite in their grouping. Elon can really rake, but I don’t think they can pitch well enough to win this. Southern Miss made a nice run in the CUSA Tourney, and the Golden Eagles are playing inspired ball for their retiring coach, but they may have achieved their goal by just getting here.

The Louisville regional is a complete tossup. In a double elimination format, I tend to give extra weight to the squads with the deepest rotations. I’m therefore going to go for the upset and give the nod to Indiana, the #4 seed. The Hoosiers can’t match the Cardinals on offense but even if they lose the opener, I like them to get through the loser’s bracket because of their starting pitching depth. Vandy and Middle Tennessee are also in the mix, and I don’t think it’s a shocker to see any of the four teams advance. So there’s your upset special with Indiana.

North Carolina should have an easy time at home against Coastal Carolina, Kansas and Dartmouth. The Heels can flip their rotation with the easy opening round game. Coastal has a nice team, and Kansas has played a great schedule, but North Carolina looks too strong here.

LSU is looking like a team that could be a very tough out and no one in this regional has enough to beat them twice in Baton Rouge. Baylor has been a flop and should be home for the summer. Minnesota is pretty good and I feel the Big 10 is a little underrated, but the Bayou Bengals aren’t likely to lose this at home.

The Ole Miss regional is a genuine crap shoot. The Rebels best pitcher is banged up and may not be able to go effectively. Missouri should win their opener but their pitching falls off considerably after Gibson. Western Kentucky can hit the snot out of the ball, but they don’t have great arms. Only Monmouth seems outgunned. I’ll pick Ole Miss, but with little conviction.

Rice should have gotten a better seed from the committee than the one they received. The Owls ought to roll here, but keep an eye on Sam Houston in the loser’s bracket. I think they’re better than Xavier in the event those two meet over the weekend.

Texas is the #1 overall seed and should shut down the opposition in their regional. Boston College and Texas State are both very solid teams, and I see the Eagles as a substantially underrated team. That said, even one close game for the Longhorns in this sector would be an upset.

I’ll be rooting for Jim Schlossnagel and TCU to make it to Omaha. Tough bracketing for the ex-UNLV mentor as they will have to take on Texas at the Super Regionals, if they make it out of this weekend, but the Horned Frogs are a very good team. So is Texas A&M, however, and I’m selecting the Aggies to move on. Oregon State doesn’t have the bats this year and they barely made the tournament, and I can’t see Wright State being good enough. A&M by a nose.

Arizona State has home field and Mike Leake, and that about says it all in their regional. Oral Roberts and Cal Poly are very good teams, but Leake is the difference maker here. He’s 14-1, 1.24 and it’s not like he’s the only guy on that Sun Devils squad.

I ripped the committee for overseeding Fullerton, but don’t be misled, I really like this Titans team and they could well win the whole deal. They’re as sound as it gets fundamentally and they got what looks to me to be a cinch draw for the regional. Nice job by Utah snaring a third bid for the rising Mountain West Conferencem, by the way. Very little chance of any upsets here, however, at least not where Fullerton is concerned.

I saved the best for last. The UC-Irvine regional is sensational. The Anteaters are a real threat to win everything this year. San Diego State has Stephen Strasburg. Virginia has a big time offense and actually pose a genuine threat to the unbeaten Aztec ace in today’s hookup. Fresno State seems a cut below the other three, but the Bulldogs are the defending CWS champs. I think any of the top three seeds here could be a threat in any regional, but obviously, only one will survive here. Despite the presence of the amazing Strasburg, I think Irvine is something special this year, so they’re my choice.

I’ll look at the Supers sometime next week. Meanwhile, enjoy this weekend action. Back at ya Monday.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/28/09

What a difference a year makes. The Tampa Bay Rays were one of the truly great stories in 2008. All those years of inept decision making upstairs and uninspired play on the field melted away as the Rays shocked the sports world with their first titles of any kind and a trip to the World Series.

Things aren’t going nearly as well in 2009 for the Rays. We really shouldn’t be surprised by this turn of events. When teams take a giant step forward one season, there’s very frequently a drop the following year. One year, everyone stays healthy and all the pieces just seem to fall into place. The next season, the inevitable injuries start to pile up. And guys who had career campaigns find they’re unable to repeat that success the second time around.

The Rays have all the symptoms of the overachiever that has to come back to earth. I don’t think there’s much question that there are some very talented players in this organization, so I’m not saying the Rays will be a one and done franchise that we won’t hear from again for several seasons. But if they did catch a little lightning in a bottle in 2008, they’re just getting rained upon in 2009.

The ‘08 Rays enjoyed good health throughout the season. This year, they have had some aches and pains. B.J. Upton was clearly still recovering from off-season surgery early and struggled badly. Scott Kazmir appeared to be uncomfortable from the start of the year and finally ended up on the DL recently after a stretch of miserable pitching. Aki Iwamura was lost for the rest of the season this past weekend. Jason Bartlett, enjoying an incredible season to date, has to hope the two weeks he’s now spending on the DL with an ankle injury won’t stifle his momentum.

The pitching was a huge asset for the Rays last season. This year it’s been an unquestioned liability. Matt Garza has emerged as a legit top of the rotation talent, and that’s not a surprise as the stuff has been there all along. James Shields has been okay, but not as sharp as he was in ‘08. Andy Sonnanstine has been terrible. Edwin Jackson is in Detroit, and Kazmir has been a huge disappointment. The bullpen has been flat out brutal at times. I was surprised the Rays didn’t address what looked to me to be a very dicey closer situation in the off season, and now they basically have no ninth-inning guy with Troy Percival injured and apparently mulling over retirement. (I understand there are many analysts who believe closers are overrated and that too much stress is put on the role. I completely disagree with that assessment, and while I comprehend the stats argument that’s put forth, I don’t feel that takes into consideration the psychological argument. More on that another time.)

Prior to the start of the season, I tabbed the Rays for third place behind the Red Sox and Yankees in the rugged AL East. They could still end up in that spot when the dust settles, but I would not be shocked if they finish lower in the standings. In any event, even if I get that pick right, I’ll be getting it wrong as I said they would win well more than they lose, and I’m now fairly well convinced that is simply not going to happen.

The good news for the Rays is that there’s still a very solid corps of young talent on the big league roster and there are some exciting prospects on the way. So while the drop back to mediocrity has to be disappointing to Rays fans, I can see lots of reasons this team will start moving forward again in 2010.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/27/09

It’s official. The one and only Matt Wieters will be making his big league debut on Friday night when the Orioles play host to the Tigers.

Wieters has been garnering all kinds of attention ever since being drafted fifth overall in 2007. If he lives up to the hype, which he has an excellent chance of doing, the conversation down the road will be about how the four teams drafting ahead of the Orioles in ‘07 managed to misfire so badly.

Just in case you’ve forgotten, David Price was the top pick in that draft, and he’s going to be a terrific big league pitcher. So you won’t hear me knocking the Rays for grabbing Price first overall, and he was clearly the guy almost everyone had rated as tops in that class at the time.

The second and third picks were not reaches either, as the Royals tabbed Mike Moustakas while the Cubs chose Josh Vitters. Both 3B have loads of upside, but neither is close right now. Moustakas is having a solid campaign with Hi-A Wilmington while Vitters is tearing apart Low-A with Peoria. I would imagine both prospects will be promoted to their next respective levels before much longer. While Moustakas and Vitters have fallen well behind Wieters on the prospect hot list, they both remain potential stars.

The team that has already caught the big heat for passing on Wieters is the Pittsburgh Pirates, and deservedly so. Dave Littlefield completely misread the money Wieters would turn out to be willing to sign for, and in true Pirate tradition, Littlefield went for Clemson lefty pitcher Daniel Moskos. Considering the level of talent in the ‘07 draft, this has a chance to be one of the worst picks ever. Moskos keeps getting promoted and is now at AA Altoona, but he’s done nothing to warrant getting moved up to tougher classifications. In fact, his numbers at the lower levels strongly indicate he needed to repeat those classes before moving forward. But apparently the Bucs would rather pretend he’s paying off on their investment instead of looking at things realistically. That’s really not so surprising. After all, it’s the Pirates.

As for Wieters, the rep just keeps growing. He was an All-American at Georgia Tech, and was a tremendous two-way player with the Yellow Jackets, before giving up pitching to focus solely on catching. Since emerging from school, he’s dominated everywhere he’s been. Wieters won top prospect honors in the 2007 Hawaii Winter League. Last season, in his maiden voyage as a pro, the switch-hitting Wieters hit .355 at two levels, banged out 27 home runs, walked more than he struck out and he threw out about 40% of those who tried to steal on him. Wieters was a runaway as the top prospect in both the Carolina and Eastern Leagues, and won honors as Minor League Player of the Year. Not a bad first pro season, huh?

There was speculation that Wieters would be called up last September and more talk that he would win the O’s starting catcher job this spring. But the organization wisely decided to exercise a little patience and they’ve allowed Wieters to progress through each level and hone his skills without any undue pressure. They even managed to see how Wieters might handle himself when the inevitable slump took place, as it did earlier this season at Norfolk. He didn’t sulk at all, or let it affect other aspects of his game, and Wieters emerged from the brief skid pounding the ball. His overall numbers at Norfolk are rock solid, and the Orioles have decided that now is the time to make the move and get him some action in The Show.

So, this Friday night, Wieters will take his first big league cuts. Interestingly, he will probably be matched up against another intriguing personality, as resurgent Dontrelle Willis should be on the hill for the Tigers before what will undoubtedly be a packed house in Baltimore.

As for fantasy impact, I’m assuming Wieters is already owned in virtually every quality league. So let’s hope there aren’t any so-called experts advising readers to run right out and use that waiver priority on Wieters, as that would absolutely qualify as useless information.

What should we expect from Wieters this season? I’d say he’s got a decent shot to hit .280 and deliver 15 HR. His advanced strike zone recognition will really help him avoid getting overmatched early and Wieters will also benefit from being surrounded by some pretty good hitters in that Oriole lineup. I would think he’ll settle into the #5 hole for most of this season, which should get him lots of RBI opportunities.

As for the future, the sky’s the limit. It’s easy to overhype prospects, but in the case of Matt Wieters, he looks like the genuine article.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/26/09

Time for the weekly rundown on the newest minor league callups. Note that I only rate the prospects on the way up. There’s already plenty of info on veterans returning to the majors, so no need for more input on those guys. I try and cover as many of the new big leaguers as possible, but this week has seen an unusually high turnover thanks to a rash of injuries. So if I happen to omit a player you’re curious about, just leave some feedback and I’ll provide what I can. Okay, here we go.

David Price, Rays: Finally back where he belongs. It took an injury to Scott Kazmir to get Price out of Durham, and he wasn’t very sharp in his return. Fact is, Price has not been putting up great numbers at AAA. Two contributing factors seemed to be possible disinterest and the fact he was working on his secondary pitches. Now that Price is back with the Rays, I’d look for him to get much sharper as he gets back into rhythm, and you don’t need me to tell you he’s worth owning in any fantasy format.

Reid Brignac, Rays: Brignac is one of the top rated prospects in this deep organization. He only figured to be up for a handful of games, but with Aki Iwamura now likely out for the year, Brignac may stick out of necessity. Brignac is blocked at SS by Jason Bartlett now and Tim Beckham down the road, so he’s either going to get traded or moved to another position if he’s going to start for TB. For now, he’ll fill a utility roll. Brignac does everything well, but may lack that one standout tool. I don’t think he’ll be a star, but I do believe he’s destined to become a solid regular somewhere.

Craig Stammen, Nationals: A 12th round pick in 2005, Stammen vaulted over several prospects to suddenly claim a starting job with the Nats. I can’t see it lasting very long. Stammen was 4-2, 1.80 at AAA, but had only 14 K’s in 40 innings. He’s a grinder with average stuff from what I saw in his debut. Stammen looks more like a long reliever to me.

Jesus Guzman, Giants: Every year, there are a handful of players who suddenly figure it all out and we see their stock absolutely skyrocket. Guzman clearly fits that bill. Guzman stalled at AA in ‘05-06, and ended up back at Hi-A in 2007. He made it back to AA last year and improved considerably. But the breakthrough came this winter in Venezuela, and Guzman has been on a monster roll this spring at AAA Fresno. He was hitting .363 with six HR before getting the call. Guzman can play either infield corner and has a chance to earn the starting 1B gig with the Giants as Travis Ishikawa is struggling badly. Once again, however, I’m not sold. Guzman still has a very high K rate and I am not seeing where he has the power to justify that ratio. More hype than substance in my opinion.

Anthony Swarzak, Twins: Wow, what a debut! Swarzak snared a win with seven shutout innings in his first start for the Twins, and he’ll use the Glen Perkins injury as his opportunity to force his way into the rotation. Swarzak has big league stuff and if he locates his curve on a consistent basis, he’ll be a decent major leaguer. I don’t see Swarzak as a staff ace, but he certainly profiles as a solid mid-rotation type.

Kris Medlen, Braves: Medlen was amazing at Gwinnett, with a 5-0, 1.19 ledger that included a 10/44 BB/K ratio in 37.2 IP and he got the call ahead of top prospect Tommy Hanson off those numbers. But Medlen’s major league debut was terrible. He couldn’t locate anything and when he did find the strike zone, he got ripped. His start tonight vs. the Giants either gets him a longer look or a return ticket to AAA. Medlen was a dominant reliever at the lower levels, but stalled badly when he got to AA. The Braves decided to try starting him and the experiment worked beautifully as Medlen took off. He has a four-pitch arsenal, and his best pitch looks to be his curve. In what seems to be a recurring theme this week, I’m not buying all the hype on Medlen. I’m sure nerves played a big role in the disastrous debut, as Medlen was forced to wait a whole week knowing the start was coming. But I didn’t really see great stuff from Medlen, and the fact he was dominating at AAA doesn’t mean he can do likewise in the show. Reports on him indicate he’s got excellent control but not such great command and my feeling is he’ll be heading back to Gwinnett for additional seasoning.

Sean West, Marlins: I don’t think West will be up for long this time, but he’ll be back down the road. West got the call from AA, where he was 4-2, with 48 K’s in 42 IP. But West also had an ERA of nearly 5, and he had allowed nine HR as well. Make no mistake, West is a very good prospect. The 6-8 southpaw was a first round supplemental in 2005, sat out ‘07 with a torn labrum, and is still very raw. But he’s got a chance to be a dominating pitcher. He’s got major heat, with a mid-90’s fastball, two sliders and an improving changeup. West got loads of attention in the ‘08 Arizona Fall League, and virtually all the scouting reports on him are positive. He’s still very inexperienced and hasn’t yet mastered the art of consistently repeating his delivery. But West is still only 22 and the high end stuff is unquestionably there. If you happen to be in a league where you can build a farm system, West is worth owning, as he is a potential staff ace.

Billy Buckner, Diamondbacks: I included Buckner in this rundown because he was at one time a high profile prospect, although his stock has been dropping. Nevertheless, the D-Backs brought up Buckner as part of what is a major in-season overhaul. Most scouts seem to agree that Buckner has big league stuff, but he’s never been able to put it together and he’s never put together anything resembling a breakthrough season. Buckner came to the Arizona organization in a trade for Alberto Callaspo, and the Royals are getting far and away the best of that deal right now. Buckner still profiles as a guy who can stick in the majors, but I would expect his role to be out of the bullpen. The consistency and command just aren’t starting caliber at this point.

That takes care of the main guys brought up over the past week. I’ll have a few additional notes on some recent recalls tomorrow, along with some other random thoughts.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/22/09

Let’s wrap up the first quarter All-Flop team with the pitchers. These aren’t necessarily the guys having the worst seasons, but they’re the ones that I feel failed to live up to expectations by the widest margin. Also, while it may not be very benevolent on my part, I don’t cut any slack for injuries. It may well be a great excuse for poor productivity, but the bottom line is that the player in question still has to be labeled as a big bust. Here’s my five-man rotation with a closer as well.

Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks: Great pitcher, but useless on the sidelines. One start, four innings, six runs and only a hope that he’ll return sometime next month.

Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees: Yikes! Three starts, six innings, 23 hits, 23 runs. Needless to say, 0-3, and then some phantom injury. Actually, I’m going to remain convinced the Yankees simply played it smart by DL’ing Wang and it looks like he’s ironed things out and is about ready to make the return trip to NYC. But those three April disasters guaranteed Wang a spot on this list.

Scott Kazmir, Rays: Kazmir has completely lost his slider and is getting absolutely crushed. He’s 4-4 overall, which isn’t terrible. But a 7.69 ERA is and there’s nothing to indicate he’s going to snap out of this brutal funk. Ratios are way off, peripherals stink. Can’t help but wonder what’s happening here.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins: Huge breakout last season, and Nolasco was brilliant in spring training. All downhill since. 2-4, 7.78 and only one quality start to date. He’s also been unlucky, but that’s not enough to offset his miserable numbers. The upside is that his ratios are still good and he seems to be throwing it well. Looms therefore as a strong buy low fantasy candidate.

Francisco Liriano, Twins: Liriano looked like a future Cy Young winner when we first saw him throwing for the Twins. Big heat and secondary stuff that was flat out filthy. That Liriano may never surface again. Velocity is okay, but not nearly what it was pre-injury and his command is not very good these days. 2-5, 6.04,m just four quality starts. There are still flashes of brilliance, but those outbursts are now sporadic at best.

Brad Lidge, Phillies: Plenty of closers to choose from for the first quarter All-Flop team, but Lidge wins out. Only two blown saves, but he’s been all over the place and is hardly reliable right now. 18.1 IP, 24 hits, 11 BB, not exactly shutdown numbers. Lidge has always been really streaky, so this could continue. Phillies fans hope not.

I’m outta here for the four-day weekend, so the next update will be on Tuesday with a look at this week’s call-ups. Enjoy the holiday, and stay safe.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/21/09

We’re at the quarter pole of the 2009 baseball season, so I thought I’d take a look at the first edition of this year’s Anything But All-Star Team. These are the guys who are, for whatever reason, dramatically underachieving. I’ll do the position players today and examine the pitchers tomorrow.

Catcher: Geovanny Soto, Cubs. Health problems have been a contributing factor, but the numbers Soto has put up are shocking. I thought it might be reasonable to assume Soto might dip a little from last year’s lofty level. But .198-1-10 is almost incomprehensible.

1B: Derrek Lee, Cubs. Injury issues are camouflaging a serious decline in power production for Lee. Only 11 HR since the end of May 2008. Add in a .230 BA this season and it’s becoming apparent to me the Cubs have a tough decision to make regarding Lee. He’s the veteran who’s been holding down the post for a long time, but with a couple of very live bats capable of playing this position and providing more sock, the Cubs may have to make a very tough call if things don’t turn around soon.

2B: Dan Uggla, Marlins. He’s now hit in five straight games with home runs in both ends of the Wednesday doubleheader, so maybe Uggla is finally shaking loose. But considering that all the recent outburst has done is to finally get Uggla above .200, he’s the choice.

3B: Garrett Atkins, Rockies. This was a tough call, as Cincy’s Edwin Encarnacion certainly warrants a strong dishonorable mention. But I’ve never been nearly as high on Encarnacion as many others. As for Atkins, he’s 4 for his last 45 and is now at .194-3-14 for the campaign. This slump actually began last August, as Atkins fell off sharply down the stretch in ‘08. He’s bottomed out so far this season.

SS: Alexei Ramirez, White Sox. Easily the toughest call, with several deserving candidates. Stephen Drew has been terrible for the Diamondbacks, Jose Reyes is underachieving with the Mets and there are a few others not far behind. But Ramirez is a monster flop so far this season. He gets a minor pass based on the position switch, but he’s 27/124 with no punch. Perhaps an encouraging sign is that Ramirez actually drew a walk in Wednesday’s win, notable as he’s been swinging at almost anything.

OF: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers. Looks as though Ordonez has hit the skids at 35. Ordonez was thought to be an old 30 with his knee problems, but completely silenced the critics with a monster rally the last few years. But he’s looked slow at the plate this year and his production has radically dropped.

OF: Milton Bradley, Cubs. I called this one when I heavily criticized the Cubs for signing Bradley. I know he’s supposedly a great teammate, but the guy is always hurt and is on perpetual suspension watch with his inability to control his emotions. But at least when healthy, Bradley has been a reliable producer. Until this season, apparently. Bradley is hitting .193. No wonder the Cubs are an uninspiring 21-17. They really ought to be much better than that, but the names on this list indicate why they aren’t.

OF: Chris Young, Diamondbacks. The ultimate tease. Young has had the five-tool label for years. It’s true, the tools are there. He’s got power and speed and looks like he ought to be great. But it’s not going to happen. Young’s strike zone recognition is actually getting worse, and he’s been horrendous this season. I would not be at all surprised to see Young get farmed out soon.

DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox. Easy choice. Big Papi finally knocked one out Wednesday night, but it’s been one ugly start to the season for the Boston slugger. Maybe the long overdue long ball eases the pressure and gets the big guy going. But Ortiz has to be on this list based on the disastrous first quarter numbers.

Back with the pitchers in tomorrow’s edition.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/20/09

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in all of baseball. They’re 28-13 following the Tuesday night win over the Mets, and it certainly looks as though they’ve recovered nicely from the initial shock that they appeared to suffer when the stunning suspension of Manny Ramirez was announced.

Juan Pierre obviously has a far different skill set than Manny, but the veteran speedster has done a great job since reclaiming an everyday job. The pitching has been fine, they’re getting solid contributions off the bench, and Dodger fans rightfully have a great deal of confidence in their team right now.

There’s that old adage that says if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Nevertheless, I’d like to see Joe Torre make some changes in the batting order for the Dodgers, as I think a little tinkering might result in more production out of the power spots. I like Pierre and Rafael Furcal hitting 1-2, although I would have no argument if Torre moved Orlando Hudson back into the second spot and dropped Furcal to the lower third until his bat comes around. Hudson is flourishing wherever Torre hits him, and while he’s anything but the prototypical #3 hole hitter, you can’t argue with the results so far. But

But the one spot Torre really ought to consider changing is cleanup. Andre Ethier has suffered the biggest impact from Manny’s absence, and he’s tumbled all the way below .260. Meanwhile, Matt Kemp is stuck hitting seventh and I feel that’s way too low for such a talented offensive force. Kemp is a better offensive player than Ethier and needs to be getting more plate appearances. Regardless of how well the team is going presently, I firmly believe they’d be better with Kemp and Ethier being flipped in the batting order.

The other possible move would involve Casey Blake, who’s on one of his rolls right now. Blake is somewhat streaky and I’d like to see the Dodgers capitalize on his current form by getting more whacks. Instead of hitting Blake eighth, I’d have him in the #6 hole behind James Loney.

The suggested alterations to the batting order would also create more righty-lefty alternating spots. That’s always nice late in the game in terms of creating matchup problems for opposing bullpens. The bottom line is that, while there’s little to complain about right now, there are ways for the Dodgers to become even more productive.
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David Ortiz returned to the Red Sox lineup on Tuesday and managed a walk in four plate appearances. He also struck out twice and looked terrible in his final AB of the evening. As noted previously, he’s still cheating on the fastball and is therefore dead in the water on anything off speed. I’m getting more pessimistic by the day as to whether Big Papi is just stuck in a slump or may simply be on the wrong side of that slippery slope.

In any event, I can’t see Red Sox manager Terry Francona continuing to kill the offense with Ortiz sitting in the #3 hole. Kevin Youkilis comes off the DL today, and I’d waste no time putting him into the all important third spot. As for Ortiz, I think he has to be dropped to #6 for the time being. I understand the loyalty factor and the reliance on the past performance chart as a barometer, but it’s really tough to argue with the eye test. The Red Sox clearly have the pitching to contend, and the defense is good enough as well. But with half the schedule being played at Fenway Park, offense is always big for the Red Sox, and like it or not, David Ortiz is a major liability right now.

There’s also little doubt in my mind that the Red Sox will move one of their three big pitching prospects to get a big bat, and it might be sooner than many think. My initial thoughts when Daniel Bard was brought up from Pawtucket to replace Javier Lopez in the bullpen was that it was more than just a move to fortify an already strong bullpen. Bard is going to be a big league closer, but it won’t be in Boston. Getting Bard big league innings right now is a great way to showcase him for a swap, and I think he’s going to be the bait. Michael Bowden is another candidate and so is Clay Buchholz. But I don’t think the Red Sox are crazy about having to part with Buchholz, and Bowden just doesn’t have quite the same ceiling so he wouldn’t likely draw as much in a potential deal. But Bard could be the perfect asset for a trade, as he’s big league ready right now and could close immediately for a team in search of a dominant young ninth inning guy. We’ll soon find out if Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has this in mind.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/19/09

What was I watching on Monday night? I thought it was big league baseball, although there were times I wasn’t quite sure that I hadn’t accidentally stumbled upon an amateur game.

In case you missed it, the Mets just gave one away in a loss to the Dodgers. Jose Reyes sat out another game as he’s evidently residing in manager Jerry Manuel’s doghouse presently. Veteran Ramon Martinez subbed for Reyes and made two of the five errors committed by the Mets. Jeremy Reed, subbing for injured 1B Carlos Delgado, made a throwing error on the game’s final play, and that was following an earlier 11th inning blunder by CF Carlos Beltran. Ryan Church’s mistake won’t show up in the box score, but he very well may have cost his team the game with a huge mistake in the top of the 11th frame. Church singled with two out and appeared to have scored the go ahead run on a triple by Angel Pagan. But the run was taken off the board when Dodgers 3B Mark Loretta noted that Church never tagged third base on his way home. Ump Mike Dimuro saw the same thing and correctly called Church out on the appeal play. Instead of taking a 3-2 lead with a chance to add more, it was still a 2-2 game and the Mets then proceeded to simply fall apart after that.

Nevertheless, the Mets should be able to look at this as an aberration. They have some definite chinks in their armor with Reyes sulking and Delgado injured, but they’re still a solid baseball team and I’d be shocked if they don’t play a big part in this year’s chase for playoff spots.
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On the flip side, if you want to see something really awful on a nightly basis, make sure and catch whatever it is the Washington Nationals are doing. For those of you too young to recall the Amazin’ Mets of 1962, this is a pretty decent facsimile. The Mets went 40-120 that season and only once has any team mounted a really serious challenge to that remarkable record of ineptitude. And as bad as the Nots are, I can’t see them losing quite that many games. But they’re sure giving it their best shot. This team is about as awful as it gets fundamentally. They can’t catch a cold defensively and made four more errors in Monday’s loss. The bullpen is an unmitigated disaster. I keep hearing what a great baseball mind manager Manny Acta has, and that may indeed be the case. But there’s really no excuse for any major league team playing such outrageously sloppy baseball. I made mention yesterday that this team should have an enviable starting rotation down the road, but it won’t matter much if they can’t put some real players on the field to support the staff, and there’s very little position talent in the system right now.
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Big Papi should be returning to action Tuesday night as Boston opens a series at Fenway with the sizzling Blue Jays. It’s been one miserable stretch for David Ortiz, and while the Red Sox have managed to do pretty well with zero production from their DH, Tito Francona was basically forced to give their reeling star an entire weekend off, as Ortiz did not play at all in the weekend Seattle series. Ortiz has had success in a small sample against Toronto’s Tuesday starter, Brian Tallet, and he’s actually been better against lefties thus far this year, so this is a good spot to bring him back. I’m not sure what to expect. Ortiz looks to have lost his bat speed and that’s causing him to cheat on fastballs, which leaves him extremely vulnerable to breaking balls and off speed pitches. Whether this is something short term that will correct itself or is a permanent decline is something we should find out soon. But there’s little question that Big Papi’s slump is a serious source of concern for the Red Sox.
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Another tough injury for Milwaukee 2B Rickie Weeks, who’s out for the season after damaging his wrist. Weeks was a monster prospect a few years back, and while it had become clear he was never going to live up to the initial expectations, it’s still a tough break for the Brewers. Weeks is never going to be a big BA type and he’s not a great defender. But he does get on base, has some power and his presence will be missed. The beneficiary may end up being rookie 3B Mat Gamel, who I previewed yesterday. The thought was that Gamel was up for use as the DH in interleague play, and that he would head back to Nashville after that for additional seasoning. But the Weeks injury might well alter those plans. I suspect Milwaukee could slide Bill Hall over to 2B in a platoon with Craig Counsell, meaning lots of starts at 3B for Gamel. The rookie belted his first homer on Monday in Milwaukee’s win over the Cardinals, and he’s sure to get a much greater opportunity to stick with the big club due to the Weeks injury.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/18/09

If someone had told me that there would be as many seven serious prospects recalled from the minors over just the last handful of days, I’d have bet big money that David Price, Matt Wieters or Clay Buchholz would surely have been on the list. But Price, Wieters and Buchholz are still on the farm. That said, there are some very intriguing names in the newest group of call-ups that I’ll capsulize today.

The Diamondbacks are in the process of doing an in-season overhaul, with several prospects getting a chance to strut their stuff with the big club. Gerardo Parra is the best of the bunch. Parra has a real chance to be a star and he’s clearly the best position player prospect in the Arizona chain. Just 22 and with his highest level to date being AA, there are sure to be bumps along the road for Parra. But the basics are all there. He’s got phenomenal plate discipline for someone so young. None of Parra’s tools jump off the page, but he does everything well. Right now, there’s not much power and it remains to be seen if Parra can learn to pull the ball a little more. But he’ll spray line drives, and should hit for a decent average right away. Parra doesn’t have sprinter speed, but can steal bases and he plays a good center field. The Diamondbacks may platoon him at the outset, but I would not be surprised at all if he becomes the everyday CF shortly.

Bryan Augenstein was also called up from AA Mobile, where he was on a phenomenal tear. Augenstein was 5-0 with a microscopic 0.78 ERA, so he was ready for the next challenge. I’m a little surprised the D-Backs decided to have Augenstein bypass AAA, however, and I expect that’s where he’ll end up shortly. Augenstein is not a high end prospect, and in fact was not even rated among the 30 best Arizona prospects this year by Baseball America. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, and has never really gotten much attention since turning pro. But those AA numbers were pretty impressive, so perhaps he’s just a late bloomer who slipped under the radar.

Mat Gamel caught everyone’s eye last season when he put together a phenomenal first half at AA Huntsville in the Brewers organization. He eventually cooled off a little, but ended up posting very strong numbers and earned a late season promotion to Nashville. Gamel has been sizzling all spring at AAA, blowing out a .336 BA with eight long balls. The consensus is that this is a cup of coffee for Gamel, and that he’ll probably be shipped back after interleague play. But the Brewers will use his bat as a DH in those upcoming games. The knock on Gamel is his defense, and he may eventually have to be moved to a position less taxing than 3B. But his bat will play in the big leagues, and he’s got little left to prove in the minors.

Nolan Reimold has been on a massive roll at Norfolk and the Orioles decided it was time to promote their best position prospect aside from Wieters. Reimold was going insane on the farm, hitting .394 with nine bombs and six steals to boot. Reimold was a second rounder back in 2005 out of Bowling Green and progressed slowly at first. But he started to figure things out in late 2007 bat AA Bowie, and he’s been on a roll ever since. Reimold is already 25, so he’s going to get the opportunity to become the regular LF for the Orioles. I would not look for him to be a huge BA guy, but Reimold can hit it far and definitely has a chance to be a 30 HR performer down the road. Unless he falls on his face with the O’s, he’s likely up for good as he’s simply got way more upside than Felix Pie.

Aaron Cunningham got a trial last September with Oakland, and he’s now back with the A’s following a short stint in Sacramento. Cunningham has bounced around since getting drafted in the 2005 sixth round. He started in the White Sox chain, but they sent him to Arizona in ‘07, and he was then moved to Oakland in the big Dan Haren deal following that campaign. Cunningham looks like a guy who will hit for average wherever he plays. But he’s got limited power and average speed. He doesn’t profile as a center fielder, and doesn’t really have the right skill set to be an everyday corner OF on a good team. Cunningham should be an okay big leaguer, but he’s not a star.

David Huff made his first big league start Sunday for the Indians and got knocked around by the Rays. Huff doesn’t appear to have great stuff, but he’s been a big winner in the minors. He was 5-1 this year at Columbus and 20-9 at various levels since turning pro. Huff has a very good changeup and that’s been his out pitch. But his fastball is average and he did not show a good breaking ball in his big league debut. I’m not especially high on Huff. I think he’s got more upside than fellow Cleveland lefties Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers, but he’s strictly back of the rotation. Huff will get by when he’s throwing all his pitches for strikes, but he doesn’t have good enough stuff to get big leaguers out when he’s off.

Ross Detwiler completes this week’s list. Detwiler has a chance to be top notch pitcher down the road for Washington. His minor league numbers to date are nothing at all to be excited about, and he’s still got mechanical issues to work out. But Detwiler has two out pitches in his arsenal already and his changeup is coming along. Detwiler has not been working deep into games with Harrisburg this season, but he’s arriving in D.C. off two five-inning stints where he totally dominated. I would think this is just a quickie for Detwiler as the Nats are shorthanded in the rotation right now, and it’s not like they need to rush a top prospect. On the other hand, if they’re willing to monitor his innings, there’s no real reason to send Detwiler back down if he shows he’s mentally ready for the big show. When Daniel Cabrera is the alternative, hey, why not give the kid a shot? Regardless, as awful as the Nationals are now, a down the rotation of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Detwiler and Collin Balester (struggling badly at Syracuse but still a prospect) is pretty exciting. In other words, laugh at the Nots now, but beware them in a couple of years if the talented young arms develop.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 5/15/09

Talk about parity. The 2009 season is less than 40 games old, yet we’re already seeing all kinds of congestion in all but one of the game’s six divisions. Just two teams are above .600, while five are languishing below .400. The one early runaway is in the NL West, where the Dodgers already own a five game lead and also have the best overall record at 24-12. But with the bat of Manny Ramirez absent until July, not even LA can be considered a sure thing right now.

This weekend’s slate is devoid of true marquee hookups, but thanks to all the tight races, there should be some terrific action to follow. I’d rate the Angels-Rangers set at the headliner. Texas is the biggest surprise team in the majors right now, and both teams are sizzling right now, each having won eight of the last ten. Even though it’s just mid-May, I think this is a huge series for the Rangers. They have a chance to make a bit of a statement that they’re a team to be taken seriously.

The best series in the NL heading in has to be the Brewers-Cardinals three-gamer. Milwaukee is the much hotter team coming in, but the Cardinals have been outstanding at home thus far. Four teams are separated by just a half-game in this sector, with Milwaukee and St. Louis just ahead of the Cubs and Reds. There’s a very good chance the two trailers could slip ahead after this weekend. While the Redbirds and Brewers battle it out against one another, the Cubs are hosting Houston while the surprising Reds continue their left coast swing at San Diego. The Astros are hoping to maintain some positive momentum after winning their series at Colorado, but this is obviously a tougher assignment. The Reds are in position to do some damage at San Diego. The Padres are stone cold right now, and Cincy is raising eyebrows with a 13-5 road slate.

The Dodgers have an opportunity to stretch their lead as they visit Florida. The Marlins were 11-1 once upon a time and there was all kinds of buzz about how the team with the small payroll was showing all those big budget teams how to win. They’re 6-17 since and now lead only the Nationals in the NL East. Welcome back to reality. The good news for the Fish is that they miss having to face Chad Billingsley, but the way they’re performing right now, this looks like a difficult set for the Marlins.

The Yankees snapped out of a nasty skid with back to back wins at Toronto, and they have to be encouraged with the way both Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabathia shut down the Blue Jays offense. They’ve got Minnesota in for the weekend, and the Yanks are hoping enigmatic Phil Hughes can figure things out off back to back horrible efforts. Hughes may have his job on the line here, as Chien-Ming Wang had a very encouraging rehab start at Scranton and may finally be finding his form.

The Red Sox are hoping they can get David Ortiz going against the back of the Seattle rotation. The Sox will miss Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard and Jared Washburn and the other Mariners starters are pretty soft. Boston is struggling away from Fenway, but they have a great chance to rip through this opponent. The Mariners are the coldest team in the game right now with nine losses in their last ten games.

Zack Greinke will look to maintain his phenomenal early season pace as the Royals get back home for a series with the poor traveling Orioles. Greinke draws Adam Eaton tonight, and the Royals are the heaviest priced chalk they’ve been in several years for this particular clash.

Finally, a quick look at the best potential pitching duel on tonight’s slate. That’s in Toronto, where lefties John Danks and Brett Cecil battle it out. Danks is showing that his 2008 breakout was no fluke. He’s held opponents to one run or less in four of his six starts this season. As for Cecil, the best pitching prospect in the Toronto organization was getting hammered at AAA Las Vegas, but the southpaw has been lights out in his two big league starts.

Back on Monday with a rundown on the latest minor league recalls, including Nolan Reimold and Mat Gamel. Enjoy the weekend!