Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/30/09

Just in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve been more than a little bit rough on the Cleveland Indians lately. This apparently prompted a note from one of the regular readers of this blog. He wondered if I was going a little over the top in my criticism of the Indians organization due to my possibly being a frustrated fan of the team.

Okay, let’s clear that up right away. I’m a native New Englander, and literally a card carrying member of Red Sox Nation. In fact, in the interests of full disclosure, I will readily admit that I have never made a single wager against the Red Sox. Nor will I ever do so. The Sox are my one passion, and while I handicap them without bias, I have never been able to bring myself to actually make a wager against them. I bet the games I give out to my customers, with that one exception. Fact is, it’s cost me some money as I’m pretty good in terms of having a feel for when things might not go their way.

One of the strongest opinions I can ever recall having was on the playoff series between the Red Sox and Chicago White Sox a few years back. That was the year the Pale Hose won it all, and they met the Bosox in the opening round. There was almost no doubt in my mind the Red Sox would get swept in the series. The Chisox were the better team, while the Red Sox were pretty beat up at the end of the regular season and were literally limping into the playoffs. So I gave out the White Sox in the series as a big recommendation, and also urged clients to take the odds on them scoring the sweep. It turned out to be a snap of a series, but there was no profit in it for me as I refused to make the bet myself.

I realize that may seem like a silly stance. It’s not like the money has any feelings, and passing on what was clearly a great spot is undoubtedly dumb. Nevertheless, it would still mean pulling against my one favorite team, and I just won’t do that. And it should be noted that while I’m also a fan of the Bruins, Celtics and Patriots, I have never had any problem wagering against those teams when the situation calls for it. The Red Sox are the one exception. Also, despite my detesting the Yankees, which is basically automatic for any Red Sox fan, I will happily bet on the Yanks when I think they’re right. But I’ll admit I enjoy it more when I cash a ticket against them.

As for the Cleveland Indians, they’re just another team to me. The fact I’ve been ripping them on a pretty frequent basis, both here and on my show, is based solely on my opinion of the organization. And as the Indians continue to stumble along at the bottom of the AL Central, it’s sure looking as though the negative viewpoints expressed are more than justified.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/29/09

Sometimes it’s simply better to be lucky than good. That’s an important factor when analyzing pitchers. Isolate those who have been catching some good breaks, and it’s likely to garner an edge in determining hurlers who are likely to start heading in the other direction once their luck starts to turn.

Back in the not so good old days, there were precious few stats widely available to help arrive at these conclusions. I found BB/K ratios to be about the most reliable factor, and I would primarily focus on pitchers whose numbers were varying widely from their norm. I still rely on these ratios, but thanks to some of the phenomenally in depth statistics that are actually pretty easy to find these days, I’ve been able to expand my scope of analysis considerably.

One of the new categories that I’ve found to be of immense help is known as BABIP. This is the batting average allowed by pitchers to opposing hitters on balls that are put into play. Find a pitcher who’s yielding an unusually high BABIP and that’s a guy who’s likely to start catching a few more good breaks. Obviously, the reverse is frequently the case for pitchers sporting an unusually low BABIP.

We can use just the past couple of nights as an example of how quickly things often turn around. Heading into Tuesday night’s action, John Danks had a .149 BABIP, a clear indicator he wasn’t pitching as well as his basic stats indicated. Anthony Reyes was at .157 going into his Tuesday start. Both pitchers got trashed. Of course, it doesn’t always work out so well, but the idea here isn’t to win all the plays, just a good enough percentage to yield a profit.

On the flip side, Cole Hamels had a ridiculous .429 BABIP going into his Tuesday start. Hamels had to leave early when he sprained an ankle, but he was pitching shutout ball in the fifth inning when he got hurt. The prior night, Justin Verlander finally avoided having an absurd number of batted balls find open spaces and he dominated the Yankees.

Ideally, I like finding a pitcher with a BABIP that’s way off average in either direction, and then also seeing that this pitcher’s BB/K ratio is also far off center. When I find a pitcher that qualifies on both counts, either positively or negatively, it’s very likely to lead to game I’m going to take a strong stance on. And make no mistake, these numbers can also be used by fantasy baseball players as a guide toward plucking undervalued free agents or perhaps in working a great deal that pays off down the road.

Here’s a pitcher to consider fading in his next start. Brian Bannister has roared to a 2-0 record since being recalled by the Royals. On the surface, he would seem like a live dog for his likely Saturday hookup with Glen Perkins. The BB/K ratio and the BABIP for Bannister indicates that just isn’t the case. Bannister’s 2-0 is far more luck than skill. In 13 innings of work, Bannister has issued eight walks with just three strikeouts. While he’s not by any means a strikeout pitcher, that’s still below his norm and the walk rate, even in a small sample, is much higher than it ought to be. As for Bannister’s BABIP, it’s an amazing .122. That’s beyond lucky, it’s downright phenomenal. And what it means is that he’s about to get bombed.

It might not happen in this next start, but a Bannister blowup is coming and very soon. You can take that to the bank. Work closely with ratios such as the ones described here, and you’re likely to be making lots of positive trips to the bank.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/28/09

Pardon the rant, but if there’s one thing that drives me nuts, it’s when teams with obvious needs refuse to promote high end prospects who are absolutely ready and deserving of an opportunity to prove themselves in the show.

I completely understand that in many cases, the reluctance to promote a player is strictly business. The longer a team can keep a prospect on the farm, the longer they can own him without worrying about arbitration and it also may mean an extra year of service time until said player can opt for free agency. I’ll completely endorse this tactic when the team is a non-contender, or there’s no pressing need at the player’s position, or if the prospect is simply blocked by a capable veteran already at the major league level.

That’s why I haven’t been at all critical of, for instance, the Orioles letting Matt Wieters log a good portion of this season in the minors. Baltimore isn’t going to contend for anything right now and Wieters at least needs to prove he can handle AAA before moving up. Plus, it’s also good business for the most part, although I would submit that whenever Wieters does get the call, the Orioles will see a spike in ticket sales.

Several teams have made the decision that their best prospects are of more use with the big club than at some lower level. Congrats to the Rockies for putting Dexter Fowler on the field right away. The Tigers have both Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry contributing with the big club. Derek Holland is a future starter for Texas, but meanwhile he’s learning the ropes in the bullpen. The A’s decided to let young pitchers Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill sink or swim at the major league level. The Cardinals could easily have sent Colby Rasmus down for more seasoning, but he’s plying his trade in St. Louis. Even the inept Nationals and the skinflint Marlins have their best kids upstairs.

So what in the world is with the Braves, Indians, Pirates and Rays? Tommy Hanson, Matt LaPorta, Andrew McCutchen and David Price should all be in the majors right now, and the fact they aren’t is ridiculous.

The Braves sure aren’t the same organization we all got used to seeing for so many years. All you need to do is see what the back end of their rotation looks like right now and then take a look at what Hanson is doing at Gwinnet. He’s 0-3, but he’s completely dominating AAA. Hanson’s ERA is 2.18 and he’s got a smashing 7/29 BB/K ratio in 20.2 IP. Sorry, but there’s no justification for a supposed contender starting someone like Jo Jo Reyes ahead of Hanson.

The Indians are going with a substandard combo of Ben Francisco and Trevor Crowe in left field. Francisco has been horrible and Crowe is no more than a fringe prospect. I’ll admit LaPorta is not exactly Gold Glove material, but how can an apparent contender in a soft division not get this guy’s bat in the lineup? LaPorta is flat out destroying International League pitching. He’s 24/63, which works out to only a .381 BA. Five HR, 14 RBI and only six whiffs. And that’s following a spring training where LaPorta clearly outplayed his competition. I find this to be totally absurd, and it supports my long-held contention that the Indians don’t really care about winning. They’d like us to believe they’re a “victim” of being stuck in what they themselves refer to as a small market. First of all, that’s a load of crap. Cleveland is not a small market. It’s not New York or Los Angeles, or Boston or Chicago, but it’s absolutely not a small market. Indians fans need to stop buying into this line of bull. And the Indians need to bring up LaPorta yesterday.

I discussed McCutchen’s situation with Pittsburgh yesterday, so I won’t bother to rehash that. Besides, it’s the Pirates, and they haven’t gotten anything right since Barry Bonds left town.

Finally, there’s the mind boggling David Price situation with the Rays. He’s putting up pedestrian numbers at Durham, and I’m not surprised. Price was very displeased about getting sent down after what he did last fall and he’s got every justification for being really hacked off at the organization. Tampa’s reasoning for sending him down is a total lie. The real reason he’s there is so that he won’t be eligible for arbitration next winter as a potential Super Two player. It’s the same garbage the Twins pulled with Francisco Liriano last summer when he should have been with the big club. As for Price, you can bet that he’ll never sign a long term pact with the Rays and will get out of town as soon as he’s eligible for free agency.

That last point is something to remember down the road. I have little doubt that when the time comes we’ll see Hanson, LaPorta, McCutchen and Price leaving their present organizations in search of greener pastures. The Braves, Indians, Pirates and Rays will play the hackneyed and phony small market card and the local talking heads and the fans will buy it, hook, line and sinker. I won’t, though. Each of these players knows full well that he ought to be in the bigs right now, and I sure won’t blame them for filing the current snubs from above in their individual memory banks. Neither should you.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/27/09

Two top prospects are likely to get into big league action this week. Phil Hughes is tearing it up in Scranton-Wilkes Barre and with the “injury” to Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees need another starting pitcher. Ian Kennedy has been equally impressive so far at AAA, but Hughes is the prospect with the much higher ceiling. Hughes should get the start on Tuesday at Detroit. There is absolutely no question about this kid’s stuff. He’s got top of the rotation talent. The key is in Hughes trusting his own stuff, which he did not do last year. He basically was trying to get by on just two pitches last season with the Yankees and wasn’t even commanding those very well.

According to reports, Hughes is using his complete arsenal this year and while dominating International League hitters isn’t close to outclassing a lineup as potent as the one he’ll see Tuesday night, it’s still a very positive sign for a team that could use one right now. The flip side of the equation is that there’s no guarantee Hughes will flash the same impressive command as he returns to the show for a third trial. It’s important to note, however, that Hughes is still only 22 years old, so even another misstep should not be viewed as a disaster.
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The Pirates are reportedly set to call up highly regarded Andrew McCutchen. He’s been the top prospect in a mostly barren Pittsburgh organization since being drafted 11th overall in 2005. With the oblique injury to Nate McLouth looking as though a DL trip may be necessary, McCutchen seems likey to get his first taste of life in the majors.

There is some debate as to how good McCutchen will end up becoming. He originally was projected as a future #3 hitter, but the power just doesn’t seem to be there, and he’s now viewed more as a leadoff type. He’s had some problems in the past with strike zone command and has struggled with breaking balls. McCutchen has great speed and started figuring out how to use it last season at Indianapolis, where he stole 34 bases, although he was also caught 19 times. This year he’s a perfect 4/4 in steals. He’s off to a very good start at the plate this year, hitting better than .300 and striking out only eight times in 73 AB. There’s zero question about McCutchen’s defense. He’s got Gold Glove potential and is big league ready as far as that part of his game is concerned.

McCutchen already has 168 games at AAA under his belt. The Pirates should use the McLouth injury as an opportunity to let McCutchen get a good look, and if he’s ready, find a place for him in the everyday outfield. Nyjer Morgan has been amazing so far and a healthy McLouth is obviously playing everyday. But right field has been mostly manned by Brandon Moss, who’s more a fourth OF type than a regular. McCutchen is a center fielder, but if he has to get moved to get him the lineup on a regular basis, so be it. The bottom line is that it’s time for the Bucs to see what the kid can do and the injury to McLouth creates at least a window of opportunity for McCutchen.
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The Red Sox have talented arms throughout the organization and one of them was razor sharp in two perfect innings Sunday night as Boston finished off a thrilling three-game sweep against the Yankees. Michael Bowden pitched two perfect innings in the victory. Bowden picked up a win in an emergency start last year and appears to have a great deal of poise for a 22 year old. He’s been awesome in the early going for Pawtucket and looks very close to being ready for regular big league duty. Bowden doesn’t have the ceiling of some of the other top Red Sox prospects, but he has excellent command and is therefore the most ready pitcher in the system right now. Bowden is heading back to the Pawsox today to make room for Julio Lugo. But should the Red Sox need immediate pitching help, it’s clear that Bowden is ahead of the more highly touted Clay Buchholz at this juncture.
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The Florida Marlins are looking for a #5 starter. Andrew Miller continues to be all hype and no production, and now he’s hurt again. The Fish brought up lefty Graham Taylor for Sunday’s start against the Phillies and he got destroyed. How bad was this game for the Marlins? They ended up using OF Cody Ross to pitch the ninth inning.

Taylor will apparently get at least one more start. Good luck. It’s against the Cubs, who can be pretty nasty against southpaws. Regardless, Taylor really isn’t a high end prospect. At best, he might fit the crafty southpaw category, but I kind of doubt it. He tops out in the high 80’s and while his deceptive delivery and ability to throw strikes has helped him progress through the system, he didn’t look to me like a pitcher who will fool too many good big league hitters. In fairness, this is a kid on an emergency callup from AA Jacksonville, so he’s got plenty of time.

The Marlins appear to have a real problem at the back end of the rotation. Brett Sinkbeil is getting crushed at New Orleans, as is Ryan Tucker. Sean West has looked pretty good at Jacksonville, and he’s the best pitching prospect in the farm system. But West probably is right where he should be for the present, and the Marlins likely would prefer to resist the temptation to bring him up this soon. They’re better off getting by with what certainly looks like a rock solid four-man rotation and just hoping for the best with the fifth spot.
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I mentioned last week that while the Toronto Blue Jays are a very pleasant surprise out of the gate, I don’t see how it can continue. One of the keys to their early success has been Ricky Romero, and now he’s on the DL because he pulled a muscle sneezing. Romero’s replacement in the rotation is Brian Burres, a limited southpaw who was mostly overmatched during his two seasons with Baltimore.

The high end prospect currently in Las Vegas is Brett Cecil, but he’s been absolutely terrible. Burres was 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA for the 51’s, so the fact he got called up is a pretty good indicator about the problem Toronto has with Romero unavailable. Right now, the hottest pitcher on the farm is a 5′7″ lefty named Fabio Castro, who’s been absolutely lights out at AA New Hampshire. Maybe the Jays should roll the dice and see what he’s got.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/25/09

Blog returns on Monday morning, but just a quick update on the selections. 2-0 Friday, now at +1422 for the season, and #1 rating at vegasinsider.com

Feel free to leave your contact info if interested in getting my best bets each day.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/24/09

Just in case you haven’t heard, “Moneyball” is about to become a feature film. The book, authored by Michael Lewis, created quite a stir when it was published, with plenty of hot debate and widely varying opinions, not only about the book, but also about the concept itself.

The book focused on Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane and his philosophy on how to build a contender while working under the constraints of a limited budget. A good deal of the writing concentrated on the tools vs. stats argument when it came to drafting.

The one enduring memory of the commentary on the book was ESPN’s Joe Morgan making a complete fool of himself when he condemned the book, while also admitting he hadn’t read it. A definite Hall of Shame moment for the Hall of Fame player turned analyst.

As for my views on the book and of the “Moneyball” concept itself, nothing has really changed much. I thought it was an interesting read, but it was also crystal clear that the author was completely sold on the argument by Beane. There were times that I felt I was reading a puff piece on the GM rather than an in-depth study of a very controversial and fascinating approach to building a big league roster and organization.
As for the “Moneyball” concept itself, I’ve never been one of the believers. I’m much more in accord with those who focus on tools rather than stats at the prospect level. While there are other aspects of the plan that make sense to me, this one doesn’t and I have always felt that it was the crucial hole in Beane’s process. I also disagreed with the idea of focusing almost exclusively on college players and bypassing high schoolers, with the former considered safer selections while the prep players wre too high risk. The fact that the A’s have clearly gotten away from the “Moneyball” philosophy indicates to me that it was a novel and revolutionary concept, but it simply didn’t work. The A’s did have that one memorable 20-game win streak along the way and they did manage to get to the post season, but they never won a playoff series.

I’m not going to crush the film without seeing it, although I’m absolutely scratching my head as to what would make this must-see material. Some books seem made for the big screen, but I have no clue as to what the grab is here. But there are some notable people involved with the project. Stephen Soderbergh is directing, and Brad Pitt has signed on to play Beane. So the one thing we know is that “Moneyball” the movie won’t be utilizing the frugal principals of Beane and the A’s. Sure looks like the producers are taking anything but the small market approach to making the film!

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/23/09

+1247 through Wednesday’s action, which has me at ther top of the heap at Vegasinsider, where I post many of my plays. For info on how to get these plays for yourself, leave a note and I’ll be in touch.

The Florida Marlins still own the best record in baseball, but another surprise entry is now hot on their heels. That would be the Toronto Blue Jays, who pulled one out in extras on Wednesday, raising their record to 11-5.

Small sample or not, this is very impressive when noting the fact that the Jays are minus most of their starting rotation, aren’t getting much offense from their two best offensive talents and have a closer who has looked terrible so far. There have been some immense early contributions from unexpected sources. You can take that in a coupe different directions. The glass half-full viewpoint would be that the Blue Jays are stamping themselves as a possibly huge surprise entry this season. The pessimistic stance would be that the big numbers being turned in by lesser players is a blip and that the team is due for a big fall. Let’s look at those numbers and try to make a determination as to whether what we’re seeing is reality or just a mirage.

The pitching staff is getting about what’s expected from #1 Roy Halladay. He’s as legit an anchor as you’ll find and in terms of reliability, there aren’t many hurlers I’d put ahead of Halladay. The shocker on the staff has been Ricky Romero, who was supposed to be pitching in Las Vegas right now. Romero’s stock has dropped in a big way since being drafted sixth overall back in 2005. He came into this season with a 16-22 minor league ledger, and nothing that indicated he was going to suddenly shed the “bust” label that had been assigned to him as he slid down the organizational depth chart. Romero has been lights out so far with three successive impressive outings. But bear in mind that he’s a lefty making his first trip around the league. I’m not saying this run cannot continue, but I lost count long ago of the number of lefties who shine early but quickly lose their luster as opposing hitters figure them out.

The rest of the rotation features erratic lefty David Purcey, unheralded Scott Richmond and yet another southpaw, Brian Tallet. It does not feature anyone named McGowan, Marcum, Litsch or Janssen, as all of those pitchers are hurt.

B.J. Ryan is the money man in the bullpen, but he’s really struggling. On the other hand, the Jays could not ask for more than they’re received from Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp.

On offense, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are supposed to be the two big horses. Wells has been spotty, and Rios was invisible until busting out with four hits in Wednesday’s win. But Wells and Rios have been more than picked up by resurgent Aaron Hill, young stars Adam Lind and Travis Snider, surprising Marco Scutaro, and vets Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay and Kevin Millar. Rod Barajas has been cold, but exploded for two HR Wednesday and even Jose Bautista has been big off the bench.

I would have to lean toward labeling the Blue Jays as a bit of a fluke, but I’ve been wrong before and maybe they’ll fool me and just keep winning a la the 2008 Rays. I do like the offense more now than I did prior to the season, as it looks like Lind and Snider are legit, and Hill’s return to good health is big. Add in Wells and Rios getting it together as they should, and this is a pretty decent attack.

But I do not like the Toronto pitching at all, and I believe this will be their undoing. Halladay will be outstanding, but I’m not yet sold on Romero and the current back three in the rotation are a major implosion just waiting to happen. It looks as though my original stance on the Blue Jays was off, as they’re a better team than I thought they would be. But I still can’t see them maintaining anything close to their current clip.

My advice on this team from a betting standpoint is to simply wait for the sell signal and then look to fade them once the staff begins what I feel is an inevitable crash.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/22/09

I kind of had a feeling this was coming. I noted in Monday’s entry that I’d stolen a couple of runs line winners over the weekend with the Marlins, and there was an inevitability that I’d have one go the other way soon enough. That took place pretty quickly as it turns out. The Indians led 6-1 early and 8-5 late last night against the Royals. But a scratch infield hit and a two-out David DeJesus blast against closer Kerry Wood got the Royals within one run, so I’ll have to mark one down on the tough loss side this time. Nevertheless, the huge start to the season is still very much intact, so no complaints from this corner.

There was no better story in the big leagues last year than that of the Tampa Bay Rays. The long downtrodden franchise put everything together and made it all the way to the World Series. I was not surprised the Rays enjoyed a winning season, and had forecast that prior to the start of the campaign. But I was totally shocked that they won the AL East and than captured their first pennant in the process.

The fact the Rays now seem to be suffering through an early season hangover of sorts should not be considered a big surprise. We frequently see teams take a step backward after exploding to an unexpectedly huge season, and the Rays have the makeup of a team that seemed vulnerable to this occurrence. The youth on the team has much to do with that, and they are definitely struggling right now at 5-9. The talent on hand is still outstanding, but it’s important to note that the ‘08 Tampa Bay bullpen had what amounted to a group career year, and we’re seeing a substantial decline there to start this year.

I expect the Rays to start winning more than they lose at some point. The starting pitching and the defense are definite assets and teams with that combination are usually fine. But right now, this is a team that’s looking a little shaky and it’s apparent they’re having trouble relocating that magic that carried them to the heights in 2008.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/21/09

It’s possible we may be seeing a new entry as the worst franchise in any professional sport. The Washington Nationals are pretty amazing right now. Not only have they been phenomenally inept in the early going, the comedy of errors at the organizational level are absolutely Clipperesque.

Basically, this outfit is baseball’s version of “The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight”, and I’m not just talking about their play on the field. They’ve bee racked by scandal upstairs, much of it centering around allegations of skimming by deposed GM Jim Bowden. Whether or not any of that stuff is true I have no way of knowing. But Bowden, along with Jose Rijo, were forced to resign in the wake of the discovery that a highly touted prospect was using an alias and was four years older than previously listed.

The “Nots” have tied themselves to players with checkered pasts and character issues. They’re drafted poorly, failed to develop quality prospects, and managed not to sign last year’s top draft choice. They have the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft, and that means a shot at one of the most exciting prospects ever in San Diego State flame thrower Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals must draft and sign Strasburg, even at what will be a very high asking price. It’s a no brainer. But since this franchise may not have a brain, I’m not chiseling anything in granite just yet.

So there’s no argument that the Nationals are pathetic in every respect, which goes a long way toward explaining why in just their third year in the nation’s capitol, no one is showing up for their games. I won’t pin that entirely on the organization. It’s a lousy baseball town, the stadium is reportedly nothing special and the parking situation is apparently horrendous. The city gets the blame for that gaffe, and on that level, it looks as though D.C. and the Nationals are made for one another.

Now we can add this weekend’s hilarious uniform typo to the litany of mind-numbing blunders by this joke of an operation. You’ve probably seen it by now. On Friday night Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman took the field wearing jerseys that proudly read “Natinals” instead of “Nationals”. That’s right, their own team name was misspelled. The error was obviously courtesy of the manufacturer, but still, how do you take the field wearing these jerseys? Majestic Athletic, the rights holder for uniforms for all 30 Major League teams, took the blame and issued an apology.

Nevertheless, I just can’t imagine this happening to any other franchise. For years, the NBA Los Angeles Clippers have been widely regarded as the most incompetent franchise in any of the four major sports. Well, it looks as though the Clippers may be about to fall off their pedestal as the Nationals are seemingly doing everything in their power to supplant them as the ultimate joke.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 4/20/09

You know it’s going well when you’re winning games you should have lost. I had the Marlins on the runs line both Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, they rallied to tie the game against the Nationals in the ninth inning and then tossed up a three-spot in the 11th inning to cover. On Sunday, they trailed by a run heading to the ninth and scored four runs to again get the money. That’s two wrong side winners, and I’ll be happy to take them. Make no mistake, I know that at some point I’ll lose a couple in similar fashion and I’ll swear to anyone within earshot that I’m cursed and can never catch a break. But right now, Lady Luck seems to be looking my way and I’m sure not about to argue with her. I’m up a ton to start the season and enjoying the ride! It’s not all luck, as I have a pretty good idea of what I’m doing. But getting a little help is always welcome.

The new Yankee Stadium may well be an absolute launching pad, based on the early results. There is some speculation that once the old stadium is demolished, the winds off the Harlem River might not play the same in the new facility as they are right now, but there’s no question that there have been some real cheapies in the new park already, especially to right field.

But the conditions at the stadium had little to do with the latest Chien-Ming Wang meltdown on Saturday. Wang has been annihilated in his first three starts. His mechanics are completely screwed up and he can’t get the ball to sink. With no sink, Wang is throwing batting practice and big league hitters are going to eat that stuff up.

I’m not sure what the Yankees intend to do with Wang at this point. I suppose they have to hope he gets things straightened out and will give him at least a couple more starts. But in the rugged AL East, the Yanks can’t afford to give away games, and I would think they’re strongly considering calling up someone to step into Wang’s spot in the rotation.

Both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy are off to good starts at Scranton. Hughes is 2-0, 2.31 so far and owns a nifty 2/12 BB/K ratio. Kennedy has been even better. He’s just 1-0, but has allowed only two runs in 12 IP with 16 K’s. Hughes has the higher ceiling, but Kennedy could be the better short term option. Either way, I would not be surprised to see one of them get the call very soon.

The Yankees could also be on the verge of calling up Mark Melancon to help out in the bullpen. Melancon has been spectacular thus far. He’s yet to give up a run in nine innings, permitting just two hits with an eye-popping 3/15 BB/K ratio. Melancon has moved through the system in a hurry and sure appears to be ready to contribute at the big league level.

Another team likely to be plucking some minor league arms to help out upstairs is the Texas Rangers. Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland are the two mega-prospects toiling in AAA right now, but neither is quite ready just yet. But Beau Vaughan, Brian Gordon and Luis Mendoza could be in line for recalls soon, particularly given the shaky status of some of the current Rangers. Mendoza has been up before. He enjoyed a successful trial in ‘07, but got lit up in a more extensive test last season. Vaughan is an ex-Red Sox prospect who came over in an off season deal and is off to a terrific start this season. He could provide help in the bullpen. Gordon is the most interesting of the trio. He’s been around since 1997, but only started pitching in 2007. He got a cup of coffee late last season with Texas. I would tab Vaughan as the most likely of the group to stick with the big club if the call comes.

Here are a few other names to keep tabs on, as they may be up sooner than later. Anthony Swarzak may force his way into the back end of the Minnesota rotation. Nick Blackburn hasn’t been sharp, and Swarzak has been lights out on the farm, despite a misleading 0-2 record. Ken Takahashi signed with the Mets in the off season and he’s looked good thus far at AAA. Takahashi’s main roadblock right now is that there isn’t room for him in the Mets bullpen, but he’s first in line should an arm be needed. Highly regarded Phillies prospect Carlos Carrasco has been absolutely great thus far, and the Phils might need to move him up soon, as Chan Ho Park in the #5 rotation spot isn’t an asset.

Felipe Paulino and Jordan Zimmerman have already gotten the call they were hoping for. Paulino pitched a gem for Houston on Sunday before the bullpen screwed things up. He’s been clocked in the past at triple digits, but that was before injury issues. But Paulino looked great Sunday, armed with a 96 MPH four-seamer and two quality secondary pitches. Given the state of the Astros rotation, Paulino could really change the look of their staff. As for Zimmerman, he makes his big league debut Monday. Zimmerman is an outstanding prospect, but I would not be surprised if he takes some early lumps.

And finally, there’s Atlanta sensation Tommy Hanson, who almost has to get recalled shortly. The Saturday Jo Jo Reyes disaster figures to accelerate the timetable. Hanson has been ridiculous so far at Gwinnett. He’s already racked up a whopping 23 K’s in just 14.2 IP. Hanson may well be the best righty prospect in the game right now and I can’t see Atlanta not making use of him very soon.