Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/30/09

Today’s reports are on a pair of teams that narrowly missed post-season play in 2008. I believe both teams have the stuff to get to October this season, but neither is a sure thing by any stretch.

The Minnesota Twins should have won the AL Central last season. They failed to do so because they decided that saving a few bucks was more important than winning a couple more games, and in the end, that train of thought cost them a playoff spot.

Francisco Liriano wasn’t ready to pitch at the big league level at the outset of the 2008 campaign. The talented lefty was still in recovery from his elbow surgery and needed to start the year rehabbing in the minors/ The Twins eventually figured that out and sent Liriano down. To the surprise of nobody, Liriano eventually found his groove in Rochester and began stringing together strong performances. Naturally, everyone assumed the Twins would recall Liriano once he established his rhythm, particularly since #5 starter Livan Hernandez was getting torched with the big club. Everyone except the Twins, that is. They kept Liriano in Rochester, with the company line being something about there not being room in the rotation for him. They apparently felt we were all away from the planet on the nights Hernandez was pitching, or maybe they just assumed we’re all stupid. Liriano’s agent wasn’t buying it and threatened to file a grievance against the Twins.

The real reason Liriano didn’t get recalled is that the skinflint Twins were hoping to make sure Liriano didn’t qualify as a “Super Two” player, which would have left him eligible for contract arbitration. So they lied in an effort to save about $1 million dollars. And trying to save that money meant a couple more starts for the hapless Hernandez, and a couple less for Liriano, and there went the division crown in the process.

I see the Twins having an excellent chance to win the division this season, although that prediction comes with a huge cautionary note. The other teams in this division will be far more likely to add a player for the stretch run if they feel it will get them over the hump and into the playoffs. The Twins won’t, because they never do. That might mean parting with a few dollars, and that’s just not the Twins way.

Regardless, I think this team might be pretty good. Liriano might never get back to stud status. He’s not the same pitcher he was before the injury. But he’s still good, and so are Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker. Add in an improving Glen Perkins and you’ve got what is clearly the best starting quartet in the division. No one else is close. The fifth spot belongs to Nick Blackburn, who I’m not as sold on, but there aren’t many solid #5 starters around the majors, so that’s not a big deal.

The bullpen isn’t as strong. No worries late with Joe Nathan, but the setup roles aren’t as stable. Jesse Crain probably gets the eighth inning, although Jose Mijares has the right stuff to assume this role if he can figure out a way to find the strike zone consistently. Craig Breslow looks like an acceptable lefty specialist. The rest of the pen appears pretty shaky. Pat Neshek’s absence due to Tommy John surgery will be costly. The Twins would probably be best served to keep Anthony Swarzak with the big club as a reliever. But they’re saying they want him to remain a starter, so he’s heading to Rochester. Forgive me for being skeptical, but my suspicions are that they’re rather save a year of big league service for economic reasons, and that’s the real reason Swarzak will be starting for Rochester. After all, it’s the Twins.

The everyday lineup hasn’t got much power, but there’s loads of speed and with the good pitching, this team can grind out lots of low scoring wins. Carlos Gomez got bigger in the off season and I think you’re going to see substantial improvement from him this year. Justin Morneau is a superior talent who’s probably still underrated, despite having won an MVP award. A healthy Michael Cuddyer creates great outfield depth, with talented Delmon Young and Denard Span all vying for playing time. Young has all the tools, but hasn’t broken out yet. Span may end up as the odd man out of the rotation, as he’s having a terrible spring. Jason Kubel will get the bulk of the DH duties. Joe Crede won’t likely hit for average, but he will provide some needed sock toward the bottom of the order. The middle IF combo will be mostly Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto, and Brendan Harris figures to get a decent number of starts at three infield positions in a true utility role.

The one player I haven’t mentioned yet is the most crucial. That’s Joe Mauer, who’s having back problems and I’m wondering how many games he’ll be able to catch this season. It might be time for the Twins to think about a position change for Mauer. They need his bat in the lineup for 150 games, not 120. Considering his status entering the new season, I wonder if we might see Mauer taking some DH turns against lefties later on, as Kubel is shaky against southpaws and Mauer can hit against anyone.

I like the team, I like the way Ron Gardenhire manages them, and as of March 30, 2009, I think the Twins are slightly better than the rest of the AL Central, thanks to their starting pitching. I don’t like the organization at all, and that’s the rub. Call it an extremely shaky vote for the Twins to win the division and rack up around 86 wins. But don’t take this one to the bank.
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The New York Mets are petitioning Bud Selig to shorten the schedule to 130 games and eliminate September baseball. Okay, not really, but if they could, they probably would.

Once again, the Mets enter a season as one of the teams to beat in the National League. Two years ago, they had an absolutely disastrous close to the season that cost them dearly. Last year, the bullpen was beyond atrocious and was the clear culprit that cost the Mets a great chance to win a pennant and perhaps the World Series.

That bullpen problem appears to not only have been solved, but should go from a total liability to a big asset. Francisco Rodriguez may not throw as hard as he once did, and he’s no longer a wipeout 1-2-3 in the ninth inning. But K-Rod knows how to close the show and he did so in record-setting process last year with the Angels. The Mets have also added J.J. Putz and Sean Green to the mix, they have a good lefty specialist in Pedro Feliciano and ample depth to fill innings if needed during high scoring games.

The fortification of the bullpen means the starters won’t have to take the mound thinking they need to pitch a perfect game to win. The big beneficiary will be the brilliant Johan Santana, who becomes a good bet to win 20 games this season. It means John Maine can go full bore for six innings and call it a day. It means Mike Pelfrey won’t have to sweat falling apart after 60 pitches. Less innings translates into better numbers for both righties. Oliver Perez remains the ultimate enigma. He’ll be great at times and horrible at others. The #5 spot is a big problem right now, as Livan Hernandez can’t even eat up innings anymore. I have no doubt the Mets will address this later, either handing the spot over to Jonathon Niese or perhaps, if he gets it together, Freddy Garcia. Or they will go out and add someone if necessary. (The Mets are definitely not the Twins.)

The offense is loaded. Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and the Daniel Murphy-Ryan Church-Fernando Tatis trio in a platoon. That’s a pretty good group. Brian Schneider is a solid backstop. Luis Castillo is probably the weakest link in the everyday lineup, and he’s not the worst player in the world when he’s healthy. The bench is more than adequate.

The Mets are moving to new digs this season, and word is that this park will be more hitter-friendly than Shea. The ball apparently carries better and there’s much less foul territory. That should result in increased power and production from what is a strong lineup and even if it impacts the pitchers a little negatively, I think it’s a net gain for the Mets.

This looks like the best team in the league to me. I’m going with the Mets to overtake the Phillies for the NL East crown, and I like them to win about 93 games in the process. I also see them as the team to beat for the NL pennant.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/30/09

The season starts next week, so those of you interested in putting yourselves in good position to make some decent dollars on the diamond should leave contact info. I’ll get in touch personally and answer any questions you might have.

Today’s previews are on a pair of teams that made the National League playoffs last season. One has a good chance to return, but the other figures to regress somewhat.

First up, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the defending NL West champs. Unless a major surprise from the projected back of the division occurs, the Dodgers will be battling Arizona for the top spot in the sector and will also be in the hunt for the wild card should they trail the Diamondbacks. I think LA comes out on top and grabs the automatic spot in the playoffs.

The reason for the optimism is what figures to be a solid lineup. Rafael Furcal is healthy again, and he’s a tremendous catalyst. I’m not sure who manager Joe Torre will hit second, but Dodger fans should hope it’s Russell Martin and not Orlando Hudson. Either way, they’re okay but I prefer Martin toward the top of the order. Andre Ethier, Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp should be a very productive heart of the order, and I like the idea of hitting James Loney sixth. Add in Casey Blake and Hudson and we’re looking at one of the more balanced and top producing 1-8 lineups in the league. The bench is serviceable as well with savvy veteran Mark Loretta, plus Delwyn Young and Blake DeWitt. Doug Mientkiewicz and Brad Ausmus provide good defense when called upon. I’m assuming Juan Pierre will be moved at some point, if the Dodgers can find a taker. If Pierre stays, he can be an asset starting a game here and there.

The pitching may not be great, but it certainly looks adequate. The top of the rotation is strong with Chad Billingsley. Hiroki Kuroda is reliable and Clayton Kershaw has immense potential. I like the Randy Wolf pickup, as he likes pitching at Dodger Stadium, and Wolf will make a decent fourth option. The fifth spot might go to Jason Schmidt if he’s healthy, Eric Stults if he’s not.

We’ll see if Jonathan Broxton flourishes as the closer. He’s the prototype for the role to be sure, and should be fine. Hong-Chih Kuo was awesome last season, and Cory Wade also enjoyed a fine 2008 campaign. Watch for James McDonald to log some important innings for this team as well, and he could end up cracking the rotation at some point.

The Dodgers are clearly among the best teams in the league, and Joe Torre manages the regular season about as well as anyone. I just don’t see any major weaknesses on this team, and I will be surprised if they don’t win close to 90 games, and perhaps even more than that. Arizona will be stiff competition, but I am on the Dodgers to win the NL West.
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The Milwaukee Brewers ended a long run of mediocrity with 90 wins last season, and a spot in the National League playoffs. The Brewers took the big gamble when they rented high-priced CC Sabathia and the move paid off as the huge lefty keyed the Milwaukee run to the post-season.

Sabathia is gone, and the Brewers will likely have a tough time making the post-season again. But don’t look for this talented young team to come unhinged. They’re good enough to at least contend and with a good break or two, they could end up in playing in October for a second straight year.

There’s plenty of offense on hand. Rickie Weeks doesn’t hit for much of an average, but his OBP isn’t bad and he’s a decent leadoff option. This is likely the last year at SS, at least in Milwaukee, for J.J. Hardy. Alcides Escobar is on the way, and he’s going to take over that spot by next season. But there isn’t a thing wrong with Hardy, and it would not surprise me if he eventually moves to the hot corner, as that’s not a strength for Milwaukee at present. Hard hitting Mat Gamel is the projected 3B moving up the chain, but Gamel’s defense is so weak he may have to be moved to the outfield.

The middle of the order is very strong. Ryan Braun is a huge offensive threat, as is Prince Fielder. Corey Hart is a virtual cinch for another 20/20 and he’ll likely hit at least .280 as well. Mike Cameron and Bill Hall are about the same offensively. Cameron is an asset with his solid defense. Hall is a cut below average as a 3B and I would guess this will be his swan song as a starter for the Brewers. Jason Kendall won’t do much with his bat, but he was a rock behind the plate last season and seems to handle his staffs very well.

The absence of Sabathia and Ben Sheets obviously impacts the rotation negatively. But I’m very high on Yovani Gallardo, and I expect him to win at least 15 games this season. The rest of the starters are average at best, however. The Brewers are hoping Manny Parra can break through this year. If he does, Milwaukee’s chances are clearly enhanced. Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will eat up innings adequately, and Braden Looper is not the worst #5 in the world.

The bullpen is a major concern. San Diego decided to reward Trevor Hoffman for all the great work over the years by making him an insulting offer, and it turns out to be a good break for Hoffman. At least now he has a chance to finish his career with a big league team, as opposed to whatever the Padres are right now. Hoffman has seen better days, though, and he’s moving to a more hitter-friendly park than Petco. Hoffman is also hurt to start the season, which makes Seth McClung the likely closer early on. I like a couple of the Milwaukee bullpen residents. Carlos Villanueva seems well suited for relief and Mitch Stetter could be a very nice lefty specialist. The rest of the pen is shaky, although Mark DiFelice could be the guy who firms it up to some extent.

The Brewers should flirt with another winning season. But I don’t think they can catch the Cubs, and I’m expecting the Cardinals to move up this year. Milwaukee should be neck and neck with the Reds for third place, and I’ll give the Brewers the slight edge. I’ll tab Milwaukee for 82 wins, and with plenty of talent still on the way through the system, things are definitely looking better these days for this no longer mediocre franchise.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/29/09

Two-a-day previews continue with a pair of entries that have established very definite tendencies over the last several seasons. One hasn’t won in ages, the other is in the hunt every season.

The Kansas City Royals haven’t been relevant for many moons. A combination of an unwillingness to spend money, along with what can only be described as a bizarre front office mindset has seen what was once a great franchise turn into an annual laughingstock. The Royals did manage to finally vacate the AL Central cellar last year, however, and they seem to finally be inching toward respectability.

This team will definitely not be the 2009 version of last year’s Tampa Bay Rays. The Royals could make a push toward .500, but they’re not yet a good baseball team. But at least there’s now some hope for their long suffering fans. Kansas City was aggressive in the off season, and while I didn’t like all of their moves, I think the net result should be positive.

Coco Crisp arrives from Boston to shore up center field and hit leadoff. Crisp should be excited about returning to a mostly everyday role and while he’s not a star, he’s solid and will be a plus defender. Mike Aviles raised eyebrows everywhere with his sensational rookie campaign. I don’t see Aviles performing at quite that high a level this season, but he won’t fall off the map, either. David DeJesus will play mostly left field and while he lacks the power numbers that position usually needs to produce, DeJesus puts the ball in play and gets on base. The Royals are hoping Jose Guillen can play 140 games and not unravel in the process. Alex Gordon is the key to the team. He has fallen way short of the hype in his first two years as a regular and needs to step forward this season. Ditto for Billy Butler, who I actually think will be the most productive KC hitter. Mike Jacobs is the one pure power hitter in the lineup, but I did not like this acquisition. Jacobs can mash, but he’s a very poor OBP performer and he can’t catch a cold. Miguel Olivo will do most of the catching. The Royals are hoping Mark Teahen can transition to yet another new position, this time at 2B. Albert Callaspo is currently listed as the keystone starter, but Teahen has had a huge camp and KC needs to get his bat in the lineup.

The top of the Kansas City rotation is fine. Gil Meche and Zack Greinke are a solid duo that could easily win 30 games if they get a little help. The rest of the rotation is less impressive. I’m not at all sold on Luke Hochevar, Brian Bannister hits too many bats and Kyle Davies just isn’t a big league quality starter. But if the Royals can take leads into the late innings, they’re in good shape. Joakim Soria has become an elite closer and I really like the Juan Cruz acquisition. The rest of the pen is patchwork and what they’re paying Kyle Farnsworth is ridiculous. I’d like to see Carlos Rosa get a shot at some meaningful innings in long relief and have him listed as a possible sleeper.

The Royals are gradually improving the system and they now have four legit prospects who have a chance to become solid regulars or more. Mike Moustakas may still not be settled on a position, but the Royals will find a place for him once he’s ready. Eric Hosmer will eventually be the prototype #3 hitter the Royals presently lack. Daniel Cortes is now healthy and progressing nicely, and should be in the KC rotation by next year. Mike Montgomery is their best southpaw prospect in years.

Kansas City still figures as an also-ran, but they’re no longer an embarrassment to their fans. I have the Royals winning 77 games this season, and they should manage to avoid the cellar in the AL Central.
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The Los Angeles Angels look like they’re down a bit from last season. But they’re still the team to beat in the AL West. But while the Halos still appear to be best in the west, the rest of division is catching up and the sand in the hourglass is getting pretty thin for some of their long time stars.

The one big addition is Bobby Abreu, who no longer fits the ideal profile for a #3 hitter, but he’s still a good producer. Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick are good table setters and even a fading Vlad Guerrero is still a threat at all times. Torii Hunter is a tremendous defender and he’s a major asset in the clubhouse. The Angels clearly overpaid for Hunter, as he’s not a superstar, but he’s far from the weakest 5-hole hitter in the league. Mike Napoli won’t hit for average, but may very well lead the team in homers. Kendry Morales is having a very good spring and there are suddenly some very lofty expectations for the Cuban import. I’m taking more of a wait and see attitude with Morales. Gary Matthews was awful last year and figured to be a benchwarmer if the Angels didn’t trade him, but a big spring might be altering those plans somewhat. The Halos are hoping the Juan Rivera can get back to his 2007 standards now that he’s healthy. I really like the #9 spot in the order if manager Mike Scioscia goes mostly with Erick Aybar. Aybar and Figgins could combine for 60 steals. Maicer Izturis will play all over the infield and is an invaluable contributor. Brando Wood has not come close to fulfilling expectations yet but the tools are still there. If he ever gets it together, Wood could change the look of this lineup.

The rotation is always a source of strength and right now the only worry is health as both John Lackey and Ervin Santana have been dinged up this spring. Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders are a rock solid 3-4, and Kelvim Escobar is way ahead of schedule and could be back in the rotation by May. Hot prospect Nick Adenhart’s stock dropped some last season, but he’s having a big camp and might be ready to take his place on this staff.

The bullpen no longer has bellwether Francisco Rodriguez on hand to finish off games, but I don’t think the Angels will have problems in that area. Brian Fuentes was a very good acquisition. Scot Shields has slipped a bit from where he used to be, but Shields is a savvy veteran who can setup or occasionally close. Jose Arredondo was amazing last season and while he’s unlikely to duplicate his ‘08 stats, he should be fine. The rest of the pen is so-so, however, and long relief could be a problem.

The worry right now is the health of the pitching staff. The worry down the road is that the Angels top prospects have yet to deliver at the top level and they’re in a transition mode right now on the farm. But even if the Halos may be down a tad, they still look to be the strongest entry in the AL West. The A’s already took a big hit with the loss of Justin Duchscherer, the Rangers still can’t pitch and the Mariners are in a complete overhaul mode. So I have LA on top by default even if they’re down a little from past entries. I’ll peg the Angels for right around 90 wins and expect them to claim another divisional crown.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/28/09

The start of the season is nearly here and I’m more than ready to start firing. For those interested in obtaining my Personal Plays this season, please be sure and leave your contact info in feedback and I’ll personally be in touch with you.

Today’s previews are on a pair of teams that produced winning records in 2008. One looks like they might be better than projected again, the other would appear to be in major trouble.

The Florida Marlins have actually already scored their biggest win of the year. They’re finally going to get their new stadium after a protracted battle that at times looked like it would force the franchise to relocate. But the soon to be Miami Marlins are going to get their new home after all, which means they might be able to start signing some of their better veterans instead of constantly turning them over for prospects.

The Marlins have actually done a good job of maintaining respectability despite their financial issues. Larry Beinfest has proven himself to be a terrific judge of young talent. Even though everyone knows he’s behind the eight ball since all of baseball knows he can’t retain most of his starts, he manages to keep winning deals. Just think what Beinfest might be able to accomplish if he’s operating on the same level as most of the other teams in the game.

Most of the pre-season projections I’ve seen on the Marlins have them pegged for a big tumble in the NL East. I’m not so sure that will be the case.

The starting rotation has a chance to be pretty good. Ricky Nolasco had the breakout 2008 and I think he’s legit. Josh Johnson is finally back to good health and is a quality starter. Anibal Sanchez is now physically sound as well, and I see him as a decent mid-rotation performer. I believe 2009 will be the year where Andrew Miller puts it together. He’s got all kinds of stuff, but just hasn’t tied it all together yet. If it works for Miller this season, the Marlins are going to have themselves one terrific young staff. Chris Volstad is the #5 and while I don’t see him having a high ceiling, I think Volstad can maintain the last rotation spot adequately.

The Florida bullpen is less settled, but could be fine. Matt Lindstrom is a prototypical closer, but must stay healthy and prove he’s up to the challenge. Leo Nunez was a very good pickup from Kansas City and should take over the primary setup role. Renyel Pinto and Logan Kensing are okay, and Jose Ceda is an intriguing addition as well.

The offense is a little more questionable. Hanley Ramirez is an awesome talent, but he really needs to get comfortable as the #3 hitter rather than leading off. He’s clearly the key to the Marlins attack. Florida has decided to go with Cameron Maybin at the top. Maybin has enormous potential, and while he’s still raw, I like this move as his ceiling is basically unlimited. Dan Uggla will swing and miss on a regular basis, but he’s also a good bet to bomb out 70 extra base hits. The rest of the lineup is a bit spotty. Jorge Cantu will apparently divide his time between 3B and 1B and will mostly hit cleanup. Cantu doesn’t profile well as a #4 hitter and he could make it tough for Ramirez to see good pitches to hit. Cody Ross is no star, but has good power and is probably a little underrated. Jeremy Hermida is getting close to carrying the bust tag and needs to get it rolling this season. Dallas McPherson and Gaby Sanchez appear to be heading toward a two-position platoon that involves Cantu. McPherson has huge power, but his health history is ugly and he’s not going to hit for average. Sanchez has decent potential, but could struggle in his first extended big league tour of duty. John Baker is the best of a mediocre lot behind the plate.

I’m basing my reasonable optimism regarding the Marlins on the pitching, which has a chance to be very good. The offense will likely be average at best. If the pitching falters, this team will indeed be in trouble. But I like the arms quite a bit, and I’m therefore looking for the Marlins to finish right around .500. That’s likely not good for any better than fourth place in the rugged NL East, but it’s still far from being terrible.
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Cecil Cooper is being mentioned as one of the managers on the hot seat as the new season begins. Considering that Cooper somehow skippered the Houston Astros to 86 wins last season, Cooper ought to be as safe as any manager in the game. But unless Cooper performs another miracle this season, he figures to be the scapegoat for one of the worst organizations in the game.

There’s no reason for the Astros to be in their present predicament, and make no mistake, this team is in deep trouble. They’re offense is littered with aging veterans and is heading for a fall. The pitching staff looks like it could be horrible. And worst of all, there’s almost nothing on the way up thanks to the mindset of their owner, Drayton McClane.

I’m not a great believer in the small market bellyaching that’s used to explain poor results by too many franchises. This particularly goads me when it’s a tactic utilized by a team that’s not at all small market. The Astros qualify on that count in a big way. Houston is not a small market not by any stretch of the imagination. Fact is, the Astros don’t seem to have a real problem competing for big stars every now and then. But they’ve ignored their farm system, which to me is inexcusable, and the result is that the Astros have almost nothing in the way of even middling prospects at this point.

As for the big club, they’ve still got Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. Hunter Pence is okay, but if he’s the star of the future, the eventual torchbearer for the franchise, that’s not exactly reason to get excited. The rest of the roster is downright ugly. Miguel Tejada is on the decline. They got Pudge Rodriguez on the cheap to catch this year, but don’t be fooled by the WBC breakout, Rodriguez is a shell of what he once was. Kaz Matsui, Geoff Blum and Michael Bourn as mostly everyday players is not a good thing. The best of the bench personnel is yet another aging performer and there’s little of note behind Darin Erstad.

The staff is a mine field. Oswalt is still a legit ace, and Wandy Rodriguez has enough talent to be pretty good, although he seems to be frequently injured. But Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler and Jose Capellan has a real shot to be be the worst 3-5 combo in the game. Russ Ortiz is actually in the mix for a rotation spot, and so are Clay Hensley, Alberto Arias and Felipe Paulino. Arias might be the best of that lot and he’s not likely to break out anytime soon.

The bullpen isn’t any better. Jose Valverde is okay as the closer. But it looks like LaTroy Hawkins and Geoff Geary could be the primary setup guys, and that’s scary. Doug Brocail, Wesley Wright and a cast of nonentities will round out the staff.

The Astros are poised to take the biggest drop from last year of any team in the game. The only thing that might cushion their fall is the presence of the amazing Pirates in the same division. I’m calling for Houston to dip all the way to the mid-60’s in wins, and I see them as a strong Under play on the wins props that are available.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/27/09

Two-a-day previews continue today with a pair of teams that fell dramatically short of expectations in 2008. For one, there’s optimism that the new season will see a return to contention. For the other, things look mighty bleak once again.

Is it only one year ago that the Colorado Rockies were entering the season as defending National League champs? The Rockies put together one of the all-time great stretch runs to capture the 2007 NL pennant. It’s now pretty apparent that surge represents one of the most amazing flukes in baseball history. The Rockies were back to their usual mediocre selves in 2008 and they figure to be even worse this time around.

There’s just very little to like on this team. They dealt their one big star, Matt Holliday, away during the off-season, and the collection of holdover still on the scene is about as uninspiring as it gets. Despite playing in what is still one of the best hitting parks in the game, the Rockies will be lucky to have two players reach 20 homers, and their pitching looks terrible.

Garrett Atkins is their best offensive performer at this juncture. Brad Hawpe is okay if healthy. Troy Tulowitzki figures to rebound from an awful 2007 campaign. Colorado has a pretty solid young catcher in Chris Iannetta. The rest of the lineup is strictly patchwork. Todd Helton’s best years are now a distant memory. Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith are better suited to being fourth OF’s, but will likely start most of the season. Clint Barmes is barely average at 2B. The bench holdovers are led by Ian Stewart, who has yet to live up to the hype and still swings and misses way too often. Carlos Gonzalez came over in the Holliday deal, and he’s also carrying the big prospect tag, but he was frequently overmatched in his big league maiden voyage. Guys like Scott Podsednik and Jeff Baker are just roster fillers for the most part.

There is one young player to keep a close watch on, and that’s center fielder Dexter Fowler. He’s yet to flash long ball power, but most scouts believe Fowler is a legit five-tool talent. He’s had a good spring and should probably be given a chance to play every day with the big club. That likely means Fowler will head to Colorado Springs, as this organization generally manages to do just the opposite of what most analysts think they ought to do.

The pitching is below average right down the line. Ubaldo Jimenez has by far the most upside of the current crop and he could actually breakout this season. Aaron Cook is fairly reliable. Greg Smith showed occasional flashes last season in Oakland, but he’s now going to be pitching in far less friendly conditions. Jason Marquis and Jorge De La Rosa project as the #4-5 starters. Opposing hitters are already dreaming about the possibilities against that pair.

The bullpen is not exactly overloaded with studs. Manuel Corpas was great in ‘07, but couldn’t come anywhere close to duplicating the effort last season. Huston Street is now on the scene, but he’s had injury issues and the reality is that he’s not a dominant closer. The rest of the pen is dotted with pitchers who have fallen short of delivering on potential, or are nothing more than Quad-A types at this point. In other words, no Colorado lead will be safe at Coors Field.

Not only are the Rockies bad now, they have very little on the horizon. Fowler is the best of the position prospects, and there is hope that Jhouyls Chacin will develop into a genuine top of the rotation starter. But Chacin is only 20, and has yet to pitch above Hi-A, so he’s got a long road to travel. There’s very little to get excited about beyond that pair.

The truth is that the Rockies need to overhaul management and begin again. I don’t think the people are in place that can turn this organization into a winner, and there is zero question in my mind that the 2007 Rockies were among the luckiest teams ever to take the field. Colorado will be hard pressed to win 70 games and will battle the hapless Padres to avoid the cellar in the dreadful lower region of the NL West.
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The Detroit Tigers were a monster flop in 2008. The Tigers were among the favorites to win it all going into the season. Instead, they fielded a squad that couldn’t pitch, couldn’t win and couldn’t even beat out the Royals en route to a last place finish in the AL Central.

The 2009 Tigers have to be improved, right? Well, yeah, I guess so. But I still see all kinds of question marks on this team. I simply cannot agree with those who are labeling last season as an aberration and are now projecting Detroit as a good bet to win their division this season.

Let’s start with the pitching. Justin Verlander had a brutal season. He fell into some bad habits early and couldn’t get on track. But more importantly, his velocity dipped to the low 90’s at times last season. I have not seen Verlander work this spring, but I’m hearing he’s still not back to his 2007 level in terms of his heat. That tells me it’s really questionable whether he can get back to ace status, and that’s something this staff desperately needs, as the rest of the starters aren’t much. Jeremy Bonderman is coming back from surgery and was still throwing simulated games last week. Armando Galarraga was a huge surprise last year, but his peripherals indicate he’s likely to regress some this year. Edwin Jackson is dynamite at times, but I no longer regard Jackson as anything more than a back of the rotation type. Nate Robertson is a long reliever masquerading as a starter. Dontrelle Willis is toast. The Tigers spent the winter trying to refine his mechanics so that he might find the strike zone. In his most recent spring start, against minor leaguers, Willis abandoned the changes and went back to the old high leg kick, so it looks as though that experiment is finished.

The one pitcher who could positively impact the staff is Rick Porcello, who certainly looks like the real deal. But Porcello’s pro experience consists of 125 IP at Hi-A. It looks to me like the Tigers may have no choice but to accelerate Porcello and get him with the big club as quickly as possible.

The bullpen was a train wreck last season. I fail to see where it’s improved. Brandon Lyon will be the first of what figures to be a lengthy line of closers. Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya have each had way too many injury problems to be considered reliable. Guys like Zach Miner, Clay Rapada, Bobby Seay and Freddy Dolsi are mediocre at best. Juan Rincon and Scott Williamson are getting by on whatever guile they may have, as neither has big league stuff anymore. The Tigers best bet in the bullpen is another inexperienced minor leaguer. Ryan Perry is last year’s first round pick out of Arizona, and despite having just 14 professional innings under his belt, it’s my guess that he will inherit the closer’s throne in Detroit by mid-season.

The Tigers will at least be entertaining, as they can flat out rake. Curtis Granderson is a quality player who plays a terrific CF and is a decent leadoff hitter, despite not being a big BA type. Placido Polanco is the prototype for a #2 hitter. Miguel Cabrera is about as good as it gets and I think he may actually have found a position he can play at 1B. Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen are getting up there in years, but they’re still productive. I think Guillen will benefit from a move to the OF. That’s a very strong 1-5. The back end of the order is a little shakier. Gary Sheffield can’t be counted on as the DH and I would look for Marcus Thames to eventually take over. Gerald Laird takes over as the everyday catcher. He’s used to working with bad staffs, so won’t be a culture shock victim in Motown. But Laird’s shaky offense figures to dip as he leaves that hitter’s heaven in Texas. Brandon Inge is a .240, 15 HR 3B. Sorry, but unless he’s Brooks Robinson on defense, which he’s not, that’s simply not good enough.

I don’t think the Tigers will be as hideous as they were a season ago, and I would expect them to vacate the AL Central cellar. But I also don’t think they’ll be any better than average. I’ll call it 81-81 and a middle of the pack divisional finish for Detroit.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/26/09

Today’s previews are on the two Buckeye State entries, the Reds and Indians.

The Cincinnati Reds are garnering lots of support as one of this year’s surprise teams. Well, first of all, it’s not exactly a surprise if it’s being talked about by so many analysts. Secondly, I’m not seeing why the Reds are suddenly about to break through and emerge as contenders. Yes, they’re getting better. But there are still some serious holes on this team, along with plenty of question marks.

Let’s start with the potential strengths. I will agree wholeheartedly that the rotation has a chance to be very strong. I was touting Edinson Volquez before just about anyone and I drafted him on just about every one of my fantasy teams last season and obviously enjoyed the results. Volquez has dynamite stuff and his changeup is exceptional. Volquez wore down in the second half last season, but with the added experience he should be strong all year this time around. I also expect Johnny Cueto to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park and he’s a serious breakout candidate this year. Aaron Harang had an awful 2008 and should bounce back, Bronson Arroyo is an ideal fourth starter. The fifth spot is up in the air, although I would think it goes to Micah Owings.

The bullpen would seem to be okay. Francisco Cordero has declined a bit, but is still solid as long as he’s healthy. David Weathers is approaching 40 and 900 appearances but still grinds out mostly adequate efforts. Jared Burton and Bill Bray were solid last season and should be fine again. The rest of the pen looks shaky, but the Reds should be reasonably effective in protecting leads.

I’m not as sold on the offense. Willy Taveras steals lots of bases, but he’s a poor leadoff hitter. I keep waiting for Edwin Encarnacion to fulfill his potential and deliver a complete campaign, but it hasn’t happened yet. Shortstop could be a problem again if Alex Gonzalez keeps getting hurt. Ramon Hernandez has seen his power drop off the last couple years and he’s not getting any younger. I’m certainly not doubting that Brandon Phillips will have another good year, and I like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto as much as anyone. I’m also impressed with Chris Dickerson, who looks like a force in what will be the busier half of an apparent LF platoon. The bench is okay as well, with guys like Jerry Hairston, Norris Hopper and Jeff Keppinger on hand. One definite concern on this team would appear to be defense. There won’t exactly be a bevy of Gold Glove favorites manning the field in Cincinnati this season.

So yes, I do see the Reds trending positively and I think it’s entirely within the realm of possibility for Cincinnati to push .500 this season. But I just see too many question marks for them to go much higher. I’ve got the Reds in a battle for third place in the NL Central and I’m pegging them for about 78 wins.
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I generally have definite opinions formed on almost every team by this date. Mark down the Cleveland Indians as a huge exception to that rule.

The Indians are one gigantic question mark. One minute they look like the team to beat in the AL Central, the next they seem so unsettled that they could bring up the rear. This team would appear to have a solid potential everyday lineup, yet there are some very serious question marks and the regular 1-9 seems unsettled. The starting pitching is just as puzzling. They have the reigning Cy Young winner and could be outstanding. I can also envision the Tribe owning one of the weakest rotations in baseball.

Let’s start with the pitching. Cliff Lee was absolutely phenomenal last season. There’s no reason to speculate he won’t be rock solid again, although I think at least some regression from last year’s mind boggling numbers has to be expected. Your guess is as good or better than mine as far as Fausto Carmona is concerned. Carmona was huge in 2007, but got blasted in the post season and appeared to be mentally fried last year. His control issues were ridiculous at times, and he’s still been uneven in that department this spring. The 3-5 spots are now held by Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes and Scott Lewis. I kind of like Lewis. I do not like Pavano or Reyes, and I’m convinced the back of the Cleveland rotation will be a rotation of several bodies throughout the season. Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, maybe a couple of others. Jake Westbrook will hopefully return around mid-season. But he’s off TJ surgery as well as another cut on his hip, so expecting Westbrook to be a key contributor this season is unlikely. Personally, I think Huff eventually emerges as the third best starter on this team. I’m not sure that’s a good thing.

I absolutely like the Cleveland bullpen. It’s outstanding. Kerry Wood might miss a week here and there if his back acts up. But as many experts speculated years ago, Wood’s max effort delivery is far better suited to short stints than starting and he was reborn last year closing for the Cubs. Now that he’s used to the role, Wood should be even better in ‘09 with his new team. Rafael Perez is a superb lefty setup hurler and I’m pretty high on Jensen Lewis. Add in Joe Smith, Rafael Betacourt, Matt Herges, Masa Kobayashi and the Indians have no worries once the starting pitcher is done. And that list doesn’t include Adam Miller, who’s going to be a major contributor if he can ever stop getting hurt. There’s additional depth with Juan Salas and Jonathan Meloan. This is a truly outstanding bullpen on paper.

The offense is in good hands at the top of the order with Grady Sizemore. Stealing Mark DeRosa from the Cubs makes the #2 spot solid. From there, it begins to get dicey. I don’t know what to expect from Travis Hafner at this point. My guess is that it won’t be all that much, and my gut tells me his superb 2005-06 campaigns won’t ever be approached again. Victor Martinez gets a mulligan for last year, and if his elbow is sound, he’ll be fine offensively. But the Indians should not have VMart behind the plate. Kelly Shoppach is the better option and I’d much rather see Martinez at 1B, with Ryan Garko as the part timer. Garko could also be part of a platoon with Hafner, with Martinez serving as the DH against lefties. Jhonny Peralta is adequate at SS, although he’s not ever going to be the star many expected him to be. I’m fairly optimistic about the corner OF tandem of Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo. Francisco won’t be a huge BA type, but he’s capable of a 20-20 and Choo could deliver similar numbers. I also see a more consistent effort from 2B Asdrubal Cabrera. The bench is certainly serviceable, particularly given the fact that the Indians basically have ten starters for nine spots right now.

Two key components are on the way. Catcher Carlos Santana and OF Matt LaPorta are big time prospects. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear that rushing either player is necessary right now.

Picking a winner in the AL Central is extremely difficult. The Indians appear to be the consensus choice, but I’m going to look elsewhere. This team has been very shaky out of the gate under manager Eric Wedge and the major uncertainty in the rotation indicates to me they could dig themselves another hole in 2009. I see the Indians being a bit of a disappointment and while I think they’ll manage to eke out a winning season, I’m just not buying them as a playoff team. 82 wins and third place in the AL Central is my best guess.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/25/09

Big League Baseball ‘09 previews continue today with a look at the two Windy City entries.

The Chicago Cubs were the class of the NL Central in 2008, and seemed poised to get to the World Series for an opportunity at ending a century of frustration. Instead, it was just another brutal ending for their eternally faithful fans, as the Cubbies meekly bowed out against the Dodgers and extended the most storied streak of failure in all of sports. The good news is the team is still very well positioned to make another run, so there’s at least lots of reason for continued optimism at the friendly confines.

There’s a good chance the Cubs will be even better offensively than they were a season ago. There’s not a single soft spot in the projected everyday lineup. Alfonso Soriano may not be the ideal leadoff hitter in terms of his approach, but I can’t see what’s wrong with a .350 OBP, big power and plenty of speed out of the top perch. Derrek Lee didn’t hit for much power last season, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see him get back to the 25 HR neighborhood. Aramis Ramirez is a virtual lock for 25-30 long balls and somewhere around 100 RBI. Geo Soto established himself as a legit star behind the plate and hasn’t topped out yet. If the Cubs can find a way to get 120 games out of Milton Bradley, he’ll be a big asset offensively. Kosuke Fukudome should put up better numbers in his second season and the keystone tandem of Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot is adequate. Micah Hoffpauir is going to force his way into his share of AB, and I like guys like Aaron Miles and Reed Johnson as part-timers.

The pitching should be rock solid. Carlos Zambrano looks as though he may be declining a bit, but I’m of the belief that Ryan Dempster’s 2008 was not as much of a fluke as many seem to believe. Ted Lilly is an asset and Rich Harden, while always a huge health risk, can still flat out dominate in six inning stretches when he’s right. The #5 slot will likely go to Sean Marshall, who’s having a good spring and he’s certainly good enough to produce a .500 record at the end of the rotation.

Carlos Marmol is now the closer and we’ll have to see how he adapts to being the full time ninth inning guy. His stuff is pure filth, so all that’s up in the air is the ability to not get fatigued mentally or physically. Kevin Gregg is a decent enough insurance policy. Jeff Samardzija opened eyes last season, but right now he’s mostly a one-trick pony and the Cubs would apparently prefer to make him a starter, which means he needs innings at AAA. The rest of bullpen is populated by average arms, but they do have lots of experience.

The bad news for the Cubs is that their window of opportunity is going to start closing soon. This team is built for right now, and there’s really not a great deal on the farm right now. I also see the Cubs being better constructed for the regular season than the post season. I think they’re still good enough to win the NL Central, although I’d be surprised if they win 97 games again this season. But 90 wins will be good enough for the top spot in the sector and I’d be surprised to see the Cubs not garnering another playoff spot this season.
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The Chicago White Sox won the AL Central in ‘08, but I see them struggling this season, and the Pale Hose could well be a first to worst entry in ‘09.

Simply stated, the White Sox are going to have to rely on the three-run homer this year, and that’s not exactly a recipe for success. The projected everyday lineup is unlikely to produce a single .300 hitter, and while there’s plenty of power, I just can’t see enough guys being on base regularly enough to produce those consistent scoring opportunities. Carlos Quentin had a huge breakout in ‘08, but I am not convinced yet that he’s an elite player. Alexei Ramirez might have the highest ceiling on the team, but he’s still raw and is moving to a new position. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye are all getting on in years, and while they’re likely good for about 75 homers combined, they’re also likely to hit a collective .260. Josh Fields is now the the everyday 3B and he’s another potential 30 HR contributor, but he’ll also be hard pressed to hit .250. Center field and second base are probable weak spots, although the rapid progress of 2008 top draft pick Gordon Beckham may alleviate one of those concerns in short order. AJ Pierzynski will still get the bulk of the innings behind the dish, and he’s still serviceable but is yet another vet who figures to be descending at this point.

There’s no ace among the starting pitchers. John Danks is the most likely to step forward and he was pretty impressive last season. Gavin Floyd is more suited for the back end of the rotation. Mark Buehrle is a great innings eater and is the most reliable of the starters at this point, but Buehrle is no more than big league average at this juncture. I think it would be nothing short of a miracle if the Chisox get production out of Jose Contreras and/or Bartolo Colon at this point. At least the bullpen looks good. Bobby Jenks has lost some velocity but remains effective, and I like the power combo of Octavio Dotel and Matt Thornton as setup specialists. Add in Scott Linebrink and that’s a pretty nifty quartet on hand to protect late inning leads.

It’s pretty apparent I’m not very impressed with this edition of the White Sox. Ozzie Guillen is a great skipper, but his one flaw is a tendency to blow up when things don’t go well and I wonder about his ability to hold it together this season if things aren’t sailing smoothly. It looks to me like a long season for President Obama’s favorite baseball team, and I have the White Sox dropping with a thud in 2009. My projection is just 75 wins and a very good possibility of a last place finish in the AL Central.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/24/09

Today’s focus is on a pair of AL East entries that have been experiencing radically different fortunes of late. One team has put their mythical curse to rest and they’re now expected to contend every season. The other has a rich history, but has been nothing short of horrendous lately.

The Baltimore Orioles used to be a franchise that could counted on almost annually to be somewhere in the pennant hunt. But that was before Peter Angelos bought the team and began earning a reputation as a free spending but meddlesome owner who far too frequently overrode the decision of the baseball people he’d hired. The results have been a disaster. Unlike many of the consistent losers who have used limited market size and finances as an excuse for their shortcomings, the O’s have never been shy about opening the wallet. But they’ve made far too many foolish purchases and managed to ignore the farm system along the way.

Things are finally changing for the Orioles as Angelos has evidently figured out that he doesn’t know more than his management team. And for the first time in ages, things are beginning to look much brighter for the Birds. It may not show in the standings this season, but there’s no doubt that the Orioles are at last a franchise that is back on the rise.

The Orioles have the best prospect in the game among those players yet to taste the big leagues in catcher Matt Wieters. He’s ready right now, although the O’s may keep him on the farm for a month to ease him in (and save a year before Wieters is eligible for arbitration). But make no mistake, the future is now the present and Wieters will soon be getting lots of time on the nightly highlight reels. And he’s not the only top prospect on the way. Pitchers Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz are extremely well regarded and possess top of the rotation potential. Jake Arrieta is another talented young arm and some scouts think he projects even higher than Tillman and Matusz. If this trio progresses as expected, the O’s are looking at what could be a devastating rotation down the road.

The top young position talent has already arrived. Nick Markakis has been inked to a lengthy extension and Adam Jones looks like a rising star. I like the Felix Pie pickup from the Cubs. Pie may never figure things out, but the tools are all there and he could prove to be an absolute steal for the Birds. Then there’s the heart and soul of this team, Brian Roberts. He’s as underrated as any player in the game, and the best move Baltimore may have made was deciding to finally stop talking about trading Roberts, instead signing him to a multi-year deal.

So the future for the Orioles finally looks bright. The present is still on the bleak side, although I do believe this team will at least improve on last year’s ugly ledger. They should score their share of runs this season. I like the first four spots in the order quite a bit, with Roberts, Jones, Markakis and Aubrey Huff capable of doing plenty of damage. The rest of the lineup is a bit sketchy. Add in Weiters and it gets even better. The bottom of the order is more questionable. I’m not sure Melvin Mora has another big year in him, the DH spot is average at best with Luke Scott getting most of the starts. Pie remains a question mark and Cesar Izturis has trouble staying healthy. Izturis does, however, clearly upgrade the Orioles infield defensively, especially with the well below average Mora at the hot corner.

The staff is substandard and will remain that way till the young guns are ready. Jeremy Guthrie is miscast as an ace, although he has emerged as a quality middle of the rotation hurler. Koji Uehara will likely be the short term #2, and he’s likely seen better days. The rest of the present rotation is terrible. The bullpen isn’t very good, either.

The Orioles have the misfortune of residing in baseball’s best division, so climbing the ladder will not be easy. But I do feel they’re at least on their way, and I believe the O’s could well vacate the cellar this year. I project the Orioles for fourth place and about 75 wins. But there’s finally light at the end of what has been a blacked out tunnel.
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The Boston Red Sox just missed grabbing a third World Series title in five years in 2008. Injuries likely cost them the AL East and a playoff series against the upstart Rays. David Ortiz had wrist issues that sapped his power, Mike Lowell was rendered mostly useless with a bad hip and Josh Beckett was too banged up to deliver his usual clutch performances on the mound. The fact that the Red Sox came as close as they did with the walking wounded, as well as being saddled with an unreliable bullpen that let several leads get away, was in itself pretty impressive. That’s not even factoring in the bizarre Manny Ramirez episode that was a huge mid-season distraction for this team.

So the natural conclusion is that with a return to good health for three of their stars, a major upgrade in the pen and a Manny-free clubhouse, the Red Sox are now the team to beat, right? Well, sort of, but not necessarily.

There’s no guarantee Big Papi will ever be what he was a couple of years ago. He’s two years older and wrist injuries sometimes never heal completely. Lowell is no spring chicken and he’s coming off a serious surgery. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis had absolutely awesome 2008 seasons and repeating those numbers sure isn’t automatic. Jason Bay is a very solid player, but he’s not going to give opposing pitchers the shakes a la Manny. Jason Varitek was an offensive liability last season and while the team captain still calls a great game, he’s no longer adept at throwing out opposing base stealers. Jacoby Ellsbury had a good enough rookie season, but the Sox also had the luxury of inputting Coco Crisp into the lineup when Ellsbury floundered, and Crisp is now in Kansas City. JD Drew is already dinged up (there’s a real shocker) and it’s only March. That’s a load of question marks on offense, and while this team will clearly be solid offensively, they may not be as explosive as they’ve been in most recent years, and they may actually have to be on the lookout for a power hitter come trade deadline time. That mostly depends on Ortiz.

The pitching outlook is much brighter. Expect Beckett to come roaring back from what was a bad year by his standards. Daisuke Matsuzaka is one of the best I’ve seen in his ability to somehow wiggle off the hook after getting himself in jam after jam. Jon Lester could be the best young lefty in the game. The back of the rotation is less settled, but it could end up being outstanding if Brad Penny and eventually John Smoltz are healthy. Tim Wakefield is still on hand to knuckle his way to a handful of victories. Michael Bowden is just about ready and the hope is that talented Clay Buchholz gets it together at some point.

The Red Sox have a great closer in Jonathan Papelbon. Getting to Papelbon was a problem last season, but the setup corps in much stronger this season. Boston will very tough to beat late if they have the lead this time around.

Terry Francona has established himself as one of the game’s best skippers and I have no doubt he’s going to pilot the Bosox to another strong season. They won 95 games with all the problems last season, and I would think they can reach that level again this year. Whether that will be enough to win the powerful AL East is uncertain but I certainly think the Red Sox are at least on course to reach the playoffs once again.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 3/23/09

The start of the 2009 MLB campaign is nearly here, so it’s time to shift into summer mode and start focusing on my favorite sport. I’ll have what will hopefully be some very solid baseball info nearly every day, some of it gaming-oriented, some geared to fantasy baseball and lots of general observations.

For those of you looking for the free plays, they’re still available seven days a week at 1-888-567-7660. Also, be sure and leave your contact info if interested in receiving my personal daily baseball selections.

Over the next several days, I’ll be zeroing in on individual teams and their projections for the upcoming season. For those of you looking to bet the MLB win totals, I think you’ll be able to pick up some fairly clear opinions here.
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Let’s start with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs managed to forge a winning record in 2008, and I would look for moderate improvement this season. The NL West looks like a two-team race between the Snakes and the Dodgers, and while I give the edge to LA, it’s no upset if Arizona winds up on top.

The strength of this team is the top of their rotation with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. That’s as potent a duo as you’ll find anywhere, and it more than compensates for the potential weakness on the back end. Jon Garland and Doug Davis can eat up innings, but neither is anything more than .500, high 4 ERA at this point. The difference maker figures to be Max Scherzer, who has a chance to be a dynamic #5 if he stays healthy. Scherzer has monster heat and if he’s got his command, he’ll be a handful for opposing hitters. But the D-Backs will have to be careful with Scherzer and I would not think he’ll log more than 160 IP even if he takes his regular starts all season.

The bullpen looks okay, but by no means outstanding. Yusmeiro Petit is the long man and he’ll be a spot starter as well. Chad Qualls is now the closer, and while he’s been a very solid setup guy, it remains to be seen if he can shut the door in the ninth inning on a regular basis. Much may depend on the health of Jon Rauch as he teams with Tony Pena for the seventh and eighth innings. I can’t expect much from Flash Gordon at this point, and I really don’t know why the D-Backs let Juan Cruz get away.

The lineup has loads of questions. Improvement is being counted on for several young players heading into their prime. Stephen Drew, Justin Upton and Chris Young all have big time talent, and if they progress the way management hopes, this offense could be outstanding. Conor Jackson lacks power for his position, but he’s a solid hitter. Mark Reynolds is the big power threat. Chad Tracy can still deliver decent stats if he can stay in the lineup, and old pro Tony Clark can still pack the occasional wallop off the bench. Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero are an adequate combo behind the plate. No one knows what to expect from Eric Byrnes trying to come back from a really bad hamstring injury. Felipe Lopez could be a huge key. He’s taking over at 2B from Orlando Hudson. No way can Lopez replace the leadership and defense of Hudson. But Lopez showed signs of regaining his offensive form last season, and if he maintain that momentum, he becomes a potential catalyst at the top of the order.

This is a good team in a bad division, so I have little doubt that Arizona will be a playoff contender. If the high ceiling young position players get rolling and Scherzer emerges at the back of the rotation, I would not rule out 90+ wins. But I’ll take the conservative approach with my projection and I’ll tab the Diamondbacks for about 87 wins and second place in the NL West, with a good chance to make the playoffs as a wild card.
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The Atlanta Braves suffered through a miserable 2008 campaign and won only 72 games. They stand to be among the most improved teams in the game this season. Everything went wrong for the Braves last year, so they figure to be better just on the luck factor. But beyond that, I like the look of this team and I believe they will, at the very least, be in good position to return to the right side of .500.

The starting rotation should be good. Derek Lowe may not be the prototypical ace, but there’s nothing to suggest Lowe won’t be his usual reliable self. I like the Javier Vazquez pickup. I see Vazquez as one of those guys who just could not mesh with Ozzie Guillen’s high pressure style and I would look for the talented Vazquez to flourish working with Bobby Cox. Vazquez will never be the stud many thought he would be years ago, but there’s no reason he can’t go out there every fifth day and win 15 games. Jair Jurrjens should be a solid #3 and Kenshin Kawakami projects as an ideal #4. The #5 spot is interesting. Jorge Campillo was a revelation last season, Charlie Morton had his moments, Tom Glavine is on hand to finish off his Hall of Fame career and could grab this role. Jo Jo Reyes is in the mix as well. And, at some point, Tommy Hanson will get his shot and he’s got a chance to be a big time star. This is a very deep rotation and it should be a definite asset for the Braves.

The bullpen is a huge question mark. Closer Mike Gonzalez will be setup by Rafael Soriano and Manny Acosta, with Peter Moylan and Boone Logan in middle relief. Logan could also be a lefty specialist at times. The rest of the pen is unattractive, and there are going to be worries at all times about the long term health of Gonzalez and Soriano. The pen is clearly a worry spot for the Braves.

The offense is sorely lacking power and that figures to be what keeps this team out of the playoffs. There’s really not that much speed, either, so the Braves look like a team that will struggle to put up crooked numbers. Chipper Jones is awesome and Brian McCann is a tremendous offensive catcher, but the rest of the lineup is really spotty. Kelly Johnson has the potential to be a producer at the top of the order, and Yunel Escobar is an ideal #2. Jones and McCann will almost certainly put up good numbers in the 3-4 holes. But then what? The rest of the lineup looks like Jeff Francouer, Casey Kotchman, Garrett Anderson and Gregor Blanco and that’s not going to scare anyone. Francouer was awful last season, Kotchman has way too little power for a corner infielder, Anderson is still a pro hitter but no longer a great producer. Blanco or Josh Anderson might be okay in the #8 hole as they can run, but neither is a great hitter.
This is also a team that might be less than stellar defensively, particularly in the pasture.

Bobby Cox manages a 162-game schedule about as well as anyone, and there’s no question the Braves should be substantially improved. But the lack of sock and the bullpen questions keep me from projecting the Braves as a playoff contender. That said, I’d be surprised if they didn’t at least get back to +.500. I’ll put Atlanta third in the NL East and project them for 83 wins.

Dave Cokin’s 3/22 Free Play

My Tourney Game of the Year went south, as Gonzaga failed to get the money against Western Kentucky. Up 81-72 with two minutes remaining, things looked good, but the Hilltoppers just kept making everything from outside in an amazing shooting performance. Nevertheless, very few complaints with the way things have gone the last seven weeks, and I’m already liking the potential of the Sweet 16 round.

The Warriors open a very tough four game road trip tonight at New Orleans. Golden State has struggled in the first game of their extended trips this season. They’re just 1-6 straight up and 2-5 ATS in the opener of three or more game trek, and I’m going to back that trend tonight with an opinion on the Hornets minus the points.