Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/17/09

The first of the bowl games is the eagerly anticipated New Mexico Bowl featuring Fresno State and Wyoming. Okay, maybe it’s not so eagerly anticipated.  In fact, chances are that outside of those with ties to the two schools and perhaps some locals in Albuquerque, the only people giving a hoot about this contest will be those who have a wager on the line. Perish the thought of this meaningless exhibition game falling by the wayside due to a lack of interest if a college playoff were to be implemented. But the BCS and the great tradition of games such as the New Mexico Bowl needs to be preserved. Just ask Ari(diculous) Fleischer and the other BCS shills who evidently believe we’re all stupid.

As for the game itself, Fresno State is the better team but Wyoming seems to be approaching the clash with a little more excitement. The Cowboys are limited offensively, but if they can avoid turnovers, their defense may be good enough to keep them in the hunt.  Double digit bowl underdogs are a substantial long term winner, which is another edge for Wyoming. I’m still very reluctant to get involved here, as the Cowboys can’t match scores with a pretty high octane Fresno offense. If the dog falls behind early, they could be in a heap of trouble. Nevertheless, if I do play this game, Wyoming plus the points would be the choice.

My 14-0 run on the games I sell online came to an end on Wednesday night. Richmond fell apart down the stretch in their game at South Carolina and ended up on the short side of a misleading blowout. The good news is that my personal service plays were on the money and the free opinion on UAB was an easy winner as well. Tonight’s comp play is on the Knicks-Bulls hookup and it’s on tape now at 1-888-712-6800.

Finally, if you’re up for getting my best stuff in the bowls, leave your contact info in the comments section (don’t sweat, it won’t be published, sold or traded) and I’ll be in touch directly.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/16/09

The bowls are about to begin, so I thought I’d share a little of my philosophy as far as beating the number on these games is concerned.

I’m not going to get overly specific with this for a couple of reasons. One is that the idea is to get you to purchase my Bowl Package, and there’s not a lot of reason for anyone to do so if I basically give away the store here. Also, much of what I will do is based on my own set of variables, and there’s simply no way to condense that into a couple of paragraphs.

But one great piece of advice I can share is to read up on how each team is preparing for its bowl game, and this is of particular importance in the lesser bowls. Get the goods on what’s taking place from the local beat writers who cover the various teams, and also find out whether the game means much to the fans of the schools involved. Most schools have a fan forum and you can often get a real feel for how big the bowl game is for the team by reading what the fans have to say about the contest.

I’m not about to tell you that there will be good enough info to warrant a play on every game, as this is simply not the case. But you’re liable to find a couple of bowls where there’s a decided advantage one way or the other on the emotional side, and that can be big. Remember that motivation is very often the most important factor in the minor bowls and it’s definitely worthwhile to try and figure out the right side on that aspect of a matchup before placing a wager.

My Bowl Package is still available for anyone who’s interested. Just leave your contact info for me and I’ll get in touch with details.

Also, I have to mention what has turned into a remarkable run on the games I sell online at picksonline.com or various other sites. Over the last 11 days, I’ve posted 14 plays and have won them all. I’ve been hesitant to mention this here as I don’t want to jinx myself, but after a 14-0 run, I guess I’ll take my chances. My Wednesday play is on a college hoop game and sells at the aforementioned site for $25, so be sure to check it out.

The first of the bowls is the Wyoming-Fresno State hookup in Albuquerque, and as I will definitely not be using this for an official play, I’ll try and shed some light on it here tomorrow.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/13/09

I must have missed the rule change as far as the Heisman Trophy is concerned. I always thought the award was supposed to go to the best college player in the country. That is clearly not the case anymore. Now it’s simply for a top skill position player on one of the big name elite teams.

Mark Ingram is a terrific running back, and Alabama may well be the best team in the country. But Ingram is not only not the best player in the country, he’s not even the best player on his own team. That honor would go to nose guard Terrence Cody, who has been utterly phenomenal all season and almost singlehandedly blew up Tim Tebow and the Florida offense in the SEC Championship game.

I wrote a couple weeks back that Toby Gerhart was the clear choice for the Heisman Trophy, and also predicted he would not get the hardware. Stanford isn’t an elite team and I would not be surprised if half the voters have probably never even seen him play. In fact, I’m kind of stunned Gerhart managed to finish second in the balloting.

Of course, I should not be surprised by any of this. Considering that D-1 College Football can’t even come up with a system to produce a true national champion, why would I possibly think they could get the award for the nation’s best player correct? Hey, at least Gerhart and Ndamukong Suh got to spend an expenses paid weekend in the Big Apple!

George Mason rallied to prevail as my Saturday free play, which was on tape at 1-888-712-6800. I have a free play every day on that line, so be sure and call on days that I don’t post anything here.

This week’s free NFL play is Jacksonville. The Jaguars will probably have to make do without their best WR today, and they have a minimal home field advantage. But my thoughts are that Miami could flatten out a bit following their dramatic win over the rival Patriots, and I’m willing to spot less than a FG with the Jaguars in a game they need badly.

Today is your last shot to get in on the Bowl Package at the 50% discount, as my regular fee goes back into effect tomorrow. So make sure to leave your contact information in the comments section if you’re looking to make some solid profits throughout the college post-season!

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/11/09

Brian Kelly is making the move to Notre Dame, to the surprise of nobody. That’s with the possible exception of the players he’s been coaching at Cincinnati. Based on some comments by a few of the Bearcats, they’re not pleased with Kelly’s decision and feel as though they were somewhat betrayed.

Sorry, but those players are way out of line. Kelly has done a great job of coaching them to heights they could only fantasize about when they signed on the dotted line to play at Cincinnati. These players have gotten far more visibility than anyone could have envisioned. Moreover, their prospects for the future after college, either in football or in some other endeavor, are now tremendously enhanced. Oh, and by the way, a free college education in the present economy is definitely nothing to simply take for granted. In other words, no one on this football team should be complaining about anything, with the only possible exception being the BCS denying them a chance to play for a phony national title.

Beyond that, how can anyone blame Kelly for bidding adieu to Cincinnati and heading for South Bend? Notre Dame may or may not recapture their past glory under Kelly. Regardless, it’s still a job with a far greater ceiling than Cincinnati. More money, much better facilities and the opportunity of a lifetime for a coach who’s climbed the ladder in spectacular fashion. Plus, the bottom line is that Brian Kelly is leaving Cincinnati in far better shape than they were in when he arrived. That’s also true for each and every player on the Cincinnati roster. So two words of advice for those Bearcats who are barking over their coach leaving them. Shut up.

I have no idea what to do with the Army-Navy game. On paper, it’s another easy win for Navy. They’re simply better than the Cadets and on my numbers, Navy should be a 16-point favorite. But this is an even bigger game than usual for Army. The Cadets get a bowl bid with an upset win, while the Midshipmen already know they’ve got Missouri on deck at the Texas Bowl. I don’t consider that to be enough of a motivational edge to support Army, however, as this is the game that matters most to both squads. I have no good advice on the Total either, as I made that number 40. So there’s no play that I can see being worthwhile on this contest.

I do have a free basketball play for Friday, and that’s on tape at 1-888-712-6800. Also, the Bowl Package is available for anyone intent on making some extra holiday money. Just leave your contact info and I’ll get in touch with details and answer any questions you might have.

I’ll be back on Saturday with this week’s free NFL play.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/7/09

Boise State vs. TCU. Really?

Screw the BCS. I refuse to comment any further on the completely meaningless and morally bankrupt system that somehow still controls college football. You guys can fire away in the comments section.

Actually, not even the BCS can alter my mood right now. I had one of my most enjoyable football weekends ever, winning virtually every play I released and sweeping all six top selections, including my NFL Game of the Year.

As far as the college post-season is concerned, the system might suck, but from a wagering standpoint, it always produces some great spots, and this year will be no different. I already have six games circled as likely big plays and a handful of others where I’ll have a good opinion. Not to brag, but I beat the crap out of the bowl numbers virtually every season, and I can pretty much guarantee no one is hotter than I am over the two weeks that just concluded. I won roughly 65% of my college plays for the entire season (documented and verifiable) and I figure to increase that bottom line substantially over the next month. If you want to come along for the ride, leave me your contact info and I’ll personally get in touch with the info.

If you’re going to do your own analysis in hopes of cashing some bowl winners, my best advice is to bookmark the main local sites for every team and check in daily for quotes and info. Believe me, you’ll garner some solid data that will either get you on some right sides, or take you off some wrong ones. The local beat writers do a great job of letting readers know which teams are excited to still be playing and which ones are going through the motions. One of the greatest ever cases in point was last year, as it was crystal clear to anyone reading the stories in the Birmingham paper that Alabama’s season had ended with the loss to Florida. Utah on the money line was legal larceny. Rest assured you’ll be able to find at least one team in very much the same scenario this year, and right off the top it would not shock me if it’s Florida. Of course, we might also have a developing situation with Brian Kelly likely leaving Cincinnati for the browner pastures of Notre Dame (they’re greener only in the monetary sense), so digest as much info on these two teams as you can, as it might pay off with a big winner.

No blog for the next couple days, but I’ll have my daily free plays on tape at 1-888-712-6800.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/6/09

I had an awesome Saturday with my college football plays. 8-1 overall and the only loser was the smallest play of the bunch on Boise State. Everything else won, and that perfectly sets up my NFL Game of the Year that goes today. Anyone wishing to receive this play can do so by calling the office at 1-866-896-1634 or simply leave your contact info and I’ll get in touch in the morning.

The free college play posted here on Friday was Alabama, so that was about as easy as it gets. Make no mistake, I’m pretty surprised Florida was so badly outplayed, but I thought the Tide were at the very least an excellent value at the number. Mark Ingram will probably win the Heisman Trophy off his awesome performance in a huge game. I still believe Stanford RB Toby Gerhart is the rightful winner, but Ingram is a great talent and he came up huge when it counted most.

My free play for Sunday in the NFL is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have shown a little life since going to rookie QB Josh Freeman, and while they’re still a lousy team, they’re at least playing more competitive football now. As for Carolina, they will try Matt Moore at QB with Jake Delhomme sidelined. As horribly as Delhomme has played, this may not be a bad thing for the Panthers. But on the other hand, what does it say about Moore that it took an injury to get him on the field? Delhomme should have been benched weeks ago, but apparently the coaching staff had little belief Moore would be even a minimal upgrade. The game plan for the Bucs should be to pack the box and contain the Carolina running game, forcing Moore to prove he can beat them. Assuming that’s likely the game plan, I’ll take my chances getting some decent points with Tampa Bay.

Back on Monday with a first look and some comments on the bowls.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/4/09

I had to settle for a split on my two top Thursday plays. Western Kentucky was a wire to wire spread winner in college football, but all those missed free throws by Texas cost me a winner in college hoops.

A quick college basketball observation. I knew the PAC-10 was down this year, but I underestimated just how awful this league may be. Something to keep in mind come March Madness.

I won’t be blogging tomorrow, so if you want to get my NFL Game of the Year and/or my College Bowl package at a reduced rate, make sure you leave your contact info today!

Today’s conference championship preview is on the top of the marquee hookup between SEC powers Florida and Alabama. It’s a tremendous matchup, and I can guarantee that I will be glued to the big screen for this Saturday afternoon duel. It doesn’t get much better than 12-0 vs. 12-0 in a playoff game, and I absolutely believe this one lives up to the hype.

I was on the wrong side of a tough loss last year, taking +10 with Alabama in an eventual 31-20 win for the Gators. But the game was tighter than the final score indicated. Florida barely won the stats, and I was convinced coming out of that game that there was not much of a gap between the two teams. I’m of the same mindset this year, and so are the oddsmakers, as the number is much shorter this time around.

I give the Gators an edge on offense, but I doubt the advantage is as great as is the general perception. On the defensive side, it’s almost dead even. The bottom line is that my math has Florida three points better than Alabama on a neutral field. In other words, it’s a game that can go either way, and barring one of the teams just falling apart, it’s difficult to envision this game not being close. Thus, the concept of getting more than three points with Alabama is already appealing to some extent.

I’m also a big fan of backing underdogs that run for better than 200 yards per game while allowing less than 100 yards per contest on the ground, so there’s another plus for Alabama. However, that advantage is lessened by the fact that Florida also has the magic +200/-100 ratio. Nevertheless, when I can take points with teams that qualify on these ground game stats, it’s a virtual automatic for me, and this game will be no exception.

I can’t find any key intangibles that definitively point to one side, although the suspension of Florida defensive front stalwart Carlos Dunlap is obviously not a good thing for the Gators. However, I don’t really feel this will be a major distraction for Urban Meyer’s team. There’s too much on the line here for the Dunlap incident to be something that will cause a lack of focus. In fact, I’m far more concerned with Mark Ingram’s hip injury. He’s playing, and from what I can gather he’ll be fine, but the Crimson Tide need their star RB to be fully functional on Saturday.

This won’t be a monster play for me, as there’s not a great margin for error, and it’s not as though Alabama is a no-brainer on my numbers. But if Florida is #1, Alabama is #1A and the only way I can play this is to take the points with the Tide.

My NFL free plays have been on a very nice roll, and I’ll try and extend that winning streak when I return on Sunday with this week’s opinion. See you then!

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/3/09

Wednesday night was as good as it gets for me. My College Basketball Game of the Month was a blowout winner as Tulsa demolished Oklahoma State, and just about everything else got home as well, including the free play (today’s comp selection on tape now at 1-888-712-6800). The Thursday card is not nearly as deep, but I like one of the college football games and there’s one stickout on the college hoop slate. Plus, I’m gearing up for my NFL Game of the Year on Sunday. Anyone interested in getting my personal selections should leave contact info and I’ll be in touch.

Georgia Tech and Clemson get together for the second time this season on Saturday. There’s obviously much more on the line this time, as the winner is the ACC champ and also gets the automatic invite to one of the BCS bowls.

The early season clash was like two games rolled into one. Georgia Tech raced out to a huge lead and looked to have the game salted away. But the second half saw Clemson mount an inspired comeback from the huge deficit and Georgia Tech was lucky to escape with the narrow win. The real difference in the game was on special teams, with the Yellow Jackets basically garnering a 14-0 edge in the duel between those two units.

Both Clemson and Georgia Tech are substantially better now than earlier in the season. It’s also clear that the two teams are totally focused on this battle, as they were both distracted last weekend in very poor performances against their two main rivals from the SEC.

The two offenses are very talented, so I’m of the belief that the winner here will be the team that executes better on defense. Clemson needs to utilize their team speed to contain the vaunted Tech option. The Ramblin’ Wreck can’t let C.J. Spiller run wild or they’re going to be in a world of trouble.

I think this is a really tough call. My math says Georgia Tech is the better team. But Clemson might well be the one ACC team that has the physical tools to limit the option and that offsets the numbers edge I give the Yellow Jackets. Of the five conference title games on this weekend’s docket, I’ve got less of a feel for this one than any of the others, so the likelihood is that I’ll just be watching. But there’s a great chance this could be such a good football game I won’t need a wager to enjoy it!

Another preview on tap tomorrow, and I’ll have a more definitive opinion on what is clearly the marquee tilt on the schedule. It’s Florida-Alabama in my Friday blog!

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/2/09

I’ll preview one of the upcoming conference title games today, and I’ll do the same tomorrow and Friday.

A couple of quick notes first. The Wednesday free play is on the Pittsburgh-Duquesne hoop clash, and that’s up now on tape at 1-888-712-6800. My College Basketball Game of the Month goes tonight, and I’ve slated my NFL Game of the Year for this Sunday. These games will be sold individually, or I’ll include them for anyone joining me for my College Bowl Package. Leave me your email address in the comments section (not to be published, sold or traded) and I’ll get in touch with details.

The first of the college football conference championship hookups is Friday night as Ohio challenges Central Michigan for the MAC title. The number on this game is doing precisely what I thought it would do. CMU is the much more public team, they’re explosive offensively, they have a site advantage and they are, in fact, the better squad. This contest opened at CMU -10.5 on Sunday night, and as this is being written, the number has blown all the way up to -13.

CMU has been dominant in the MAC all season. They’re 8-0, the average margin of victory is 24 points per game, and they’re definitely used to the spotlight. This is the third MAC title appearance in the last four years for the Chippewas, and they were blowout winners in both 2006 and 2007.

Ohio, on the other hand, has been mostly grinding out their wins. The Bobcats are 7-1 in the MAC this season, but the seven wins are by a combined 71 points. They are definitely not a team with a great deal of flair, and they’re basically a team that has spent the season flying well under the radar.

But it’s important to note that Ohio has not been blown out in any game this season. They lost by seven to Connecticut, gave Tennessee a real battle in a 34-23 loss and, in fact, their only really bad game was a 20-11 home loss to Kent State in which the Bobcats did everything wrong.

The spread on this game is absolutely inflated. The game power rates about -8 or so in favor of CMU. But the oddsmakers knew where the money would show in this game. So they opened it high, and it has predictably climbed. I would not be at all surprised to see the game to -14.

Based on the the potency of the Central Michigan offense, I’m not going to be at all shocked if the Chips win this one big. They have several things in their favor, and they’re going to keep scoring if the opportunities are there. But I’m a believer in value, and with the “good” number on CMU long gone, the value is now clearly with Ohio University. That doesn’t mean the Bobcats are by any means a great bet, as they do not match up particularly well with Central Michigan. However, this game is definitely shaping up as one where the house is going to pulling hard for the underdog. Beyond that, while betting a bad number won’t necessarily get you beat in any one game, it’s something I always try to avoid if possible. So while I won’t try and argue anyone off the CMU side here, just realize going in that you’re accepting a bad number if you back that side now, and perhaps even more so if you wait till game day.

I’ll return on Thursday with my Georgia Tech-Clemson ACC preview.

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 12/1/09

No blog today, but my Tuesday free play is available on a taped message at 1-888-712-6800. Back on Wednesday with an early look at one of this weekend’s conference title games.