2011 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are not an expansion team. But this franchise certainly has the look of one that’s almost starting from scratch. That is clearly not a good sign for the present, but there’s no question in my mind that things will soon start to get better for Diamondbacks fans. The bad news is they’re going to have suffer through at least one more very rocky campaign before things start to improve.

My main reason for down the road optimism regarding the Snakes is the change at the top. Kevin Towers is now running the show as Arizona’s new GM, and you’ll be hard pressed to find a sharper team architect than Towers. The first thing Towers has already accomplished is changing the team philosophy.

For the last few seasons, the Diamondbacks have had an all or nothing lineup replete with far too many swing and miss types. That’s why Arizona has shattered records for team strikeouts over the last three seasons. Worse yet, the prior regime apparently couldn’t recognize this flawed structure, as they continued to spend big bucks on draft picks displaying the same tendencies. That will no longer be the case under Towers.

The future isn’t that difficult to project with Towers in charge. Look for the Diamondbacks to go after more well rounded players and for far more stress to be put on getting pitchers with upside. But as for the present, it’s extremely difficult to envision the D-Backs being able to contend in the NL West in 2011.

The everyday lineup isn’t likely to cause opposing pitchers too many sleepless nights. It’s not that Arizona is devoid of talent. Justin Upton still has a real chance to become one of the best players in the game. Chris Young has all five tools, and while he’ll likely never hit for a great average, he’ll produce runs. Kelly Johnson got his game back together in 2010, and should be a fixture at 2B for the Diamondbacks. Stephen Drew may never develop into a superstar, but he’s a well above average performer at SS. A healthy Miguel Montero is an asset behind the plate.

But there are some major voids as well. I’m not convinced Juam Miranda is good enough to be a starting 1B at this level, and Brandon Allen has not shown me he can consistently hit big league pitching. Xavier Nady looks like the first option in left field, and his inconsistency along with a very lengthy injury chart makes him a high risk, low reward option. The bench is shaky as well, and there aren’t any position prospects close to being ready to make a sudden splash.

The starting pitching might not be as bad as some envision, although there’s no true ace to be sure. But the Diamondbacks might be able to get by for now with a three-man rotation featuring Joe Saunders, Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy. Barry Enright, Zach Duke, Armando Galarraga and Aaron Heilman are in the mix for the last two spots mix. Hudson impressed after coming over from the White Sox last summer, Kennedy had flashes of brilliance before wearing down and Saunders is capable of being a decent innings eater.

The back of the rotation is clearly a trouble spot as none of the four arms I’ve listed are keepers. The Diamondbacks are hoping top prospect Jarrod Parker makes a successful return from Tommy John surgery. Parker is a legit top of the rotation prospect and if all goes well he could be with the big club by mid-season. A healthy Parker has a real chance to transform the entire rotation.

Arizona’s bullpen was historically awful last season. Things should be considerably better in 2011. J.J. Putz is a proven closer and the ninth inning will not be a problem is he can maintain good health. David Hernandez flamed out as a starter for the Orioles, but his stuff has a chance to play well as a late inning reliever. Juan Gutierrez has closer stuff but needs to put it together for an extended period. Sam Demel was an under the radar trade pickup last season, and now that he appears to have ironed out his control issues, he shapes up as a decent option out of the pen.

Overall, I look for the Diamondbacks to be slightly improved this season. That’s not necessarily the case on paper, but I very much like the new approach that we’re going to see with Towers in the office and Kirk Gibson taking charge in the dugout. The enhanced mindset itself is probably worth a handful of additional wins. I’d be surprised if this team avoids another finish in the NL West cellar, but I’m also convinced better days are ahead for the Diamondbacks.
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The 2010 baseball season was one of my best ever from a handicapping perspective. Documented profits in excess of 50 net units, based on a flat one unit per play. For info on my GUARANTEED selections, simply email me at cokin@cox.net.

2011 Texas Rangers Preview

The long wait is finally over. The Texas Rangers will finally be flying a pennant in their ballpark following their first ever American League title. The Rangers fell short in the World Series against the San Francisco Giants, but that can’t dampen the enthusiasm following their sensational 2010 campaign, and most observers seem to feel they’re bound to be in the 2011 pennant mix as well. I’m not so sure.

I’m not calling for the Rangers to tumble back to mediocrity this year, but I just cannot see them enjoying the same level of success as we all just witnessed. I’ve got serious concerns about the pitching, and if the arms can’t deliver a similar showing to what took place in 2010, the offense alone won’t be enough to carry this team back to the playoffs.

Obviously, the loss of Cliff Lee to the Phillies as a free agent is huge. Lee’s numbers with the Rangers were actually very ordinary. He won just four of his ten decisions, and his ERA was barely below 4.00. Of course, Lee was amazing throughout the American League playoffs and it’s unlikely the Rangers would have made it to the World Series without him. But just the mere presence of Lee was a huge psychological boost for the entire staff, and his absence is undoubtedly going to be severely felt.

C.J. Wilson will now have to shoulder the load as the Texas ace. Wilson was an absolute revelation for the Rangers in ’10, emerging from the bullpen to win 15 games with solid across the board numbers. Wilson’s stuff is good enough to call for an encore performance. But he’ll also be facing the added pressure of being counted on as the staff ace and it’s important to note that Wilson threw nearly as many innings last year as he had in the previous four seasons pitching out of the pen.

Colby Lewis was another very pleasant surprise, and he was better than his 12-13 record would indicate. Lewis is in great shape as camp gets underway, having dropped 15 pounds during the off-season. He’s a real bulldog and I can easily see him eclipsing last year’s numbers. Tommy Hunter doesn’t have great stuff, but it’s tough to knock his results.

The back end of the projected rotation is very shaky. Anything good the Rangers get from Brandon Webb is gravy. Webb has been out for virtually two entire seasons and he may well be merely a shell of what he was in his days as the ace of the Diamondbacks. Derek Holland has yet to prove he can cut it at the big league level. Dave Bush is also on hand, but if the Rangers have to plug him into the rotation on a regular basis, it’s not a good sign.

The bullpen looks strong. Neftali Feliz has starter stuff, but he’s been so good as a closer there’s little point in moving him. Texas has a deep array of arms in front of Feliz and they should once again prove to be very tough in late game situations when they have a lead.

The lineup is loaded. I am expecting that 2B Ian Kinsler will be moved back to the spot he’s best suited for, which is leadoff hitter. If Michael Young remains a Ranger, he’s a solid #2, and a healthy Josh Hamilton is downright scary hitting third.

Vladimir Guerrero is now in Baltimore, but the Rangers are excited about the arrival of 3B Adrian Beltre, and he has the potential to be a dynamic cleanup hitter. Nelson Cruz needs to avoid those pesky hamstring issues, but the RF is a monster producer when he’s right. The sixth and seventh spots will be manned by Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba, depending on who’s pitching for the opposition. The bottom of the order should feature CF Julio Borbon and SS Elvis Andrus. As usual, there’s no set role for OF David Murphy, but he always seems to find his way into the lineup for 450 or more plate appearances.

Despite what is clearly an extremely impressive arsenal, I can still foresee some issues with the Texas offense. Hamilton is the ultimate stud, but he’s missed lots of games the last couple of seasons. Beltre has never put together back to back big years, and his two top of the chart seasons were both when he was entering free agency. Borbon has yet to show he’s capable of being the everyday CF.

Then there’s the situation with Michael Young. He’s clearly not happy with his situation in Texas. While Young is the consummate pro, he does not appear to be relishing the idea of being DH/Utility player and this looms as a potential headache until the situation is somehow resolved.
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This wraps up my AL West previews, so it’s time to make the predictions on the pecking order. I can see this division being up for grabs right into the final week of the season.

I’m not sold on the Angels, and feel they did a lousy job of adding pieces in the off-season. Nevertheless, they own a dynamite rotation and Mike Scioscia is as good as it gets in the dugout. If the bullpen doesn’t melt down (a definite possibility), I like the Halos to squeeze out the win.

I’m going with Oakland to finish second. The A’s have the best pitching in the AL West when the pen is factored in. But there’s still not much pop in the lineup, and one key injury to the staff would be a major problem.

I’ll go out on a limb somewhat and tab Texas to drop to third place, although they could easily repeat as division champs. Call it a gut feeling. Everything went right for this team last year, and that doesn’t always happen the next time around.

Seattle is clearly the weakest team in the AL West and I’d be very surprised if they finish anywhere other than last place. But I like the direction of the franchise and the Mariners at least have some legitimate hope for the future.
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My baseball numbers last year were nothing short of spectacular, with a documented net profit of more than 51 units (based on a flat one unit per play). For info on my guaranteed 2011 baseball selections, contact me directly at: cokin@cox.net.

2011 Seattle Mariners Preview

There’s no place to go but up. That’s the good news for the Seattle Mariners. Things can’t get any worse than they were in 2010, a season in which the Mariners bottomed out completely. Aside from Felix Hernandez winning the Cy Young Award and Ichiro Suzuki setting a new standard with his 10th straight 200-hit season, this team was a disaster. The Mariners were beyond inept offensively, and there’s every chance they’ll be just as miserable in 2011.

Felix Hernandez was amazing for the M’s, and may well have been the best 13-12 pitcher I’ve ever seen. The fact that he won the American League Cy Young Award with such an ordinary record speaks volumes about how dominating he was. King Felix pitched well enough to win 20 games, but the lack of run support was simply ridiculous. Hernandez was saddled with a league-low 3.1 runs per game of offense. So despite leading the league in innings, ERA, opponent batting average, opponent OPS and quality starts, Hernandez had trouble registering wins. Note he was also second in strikeouts and third in complete games, narrowly missing winning those categories as well. All in all, an absolutely superb season for King Felix, and kudos to the Cy Young voters for looking past the ordinary W/L record.

Ichiro Suzuki is now 37 years old, but nothing seems to have changed for the future Hall of Fame outfielder. Ichiro posted his usual outstanding numbers, and he quelled any thoughts that he might be slowing down by stealing 42 bases. There’s nothing to indicate this season will be anything other than more of the same for Ichiro.

The Mariners are hoping a couple of other players can produce dividends this season to somehow spark an offense that was almost too feeble for words. Chone Figgins suffered through a terrible 2010 season, and I’m not at all sure he’ll be much better in 2011. Figgins was an ideal leadoff hitter with the Angels. But that spot isn’t open in Seattle with Ichiro on hand, and I don’t see him as a good fit in the #2 hole.

Seattle will likely feature Frankie Gutierrez, Jack Cust and Justin Smoak as their middle of order. That’s about as weak as it gets at the big league level. Gutierrez is an excellent defender and an okay hitter, but he’s totally ill-suited to hit third.

Cust is still useful thanks to his ability to get on base in spite of a low BA, but his power appears to be declining. As a platoon DH hitting lower in the order, Cust might be acceptable at best. Hitting cleanup on a nearly everyday basis, Cust is a major liablity.

Smoak struggled mightily in his initial tour of big league duty with the Rangers. He did even worse after arriving via trade in Seattle and eventually got sent to Tacoma. But Smoak did show his potential after a late season recall, and hit very well over the last ten games of the season. No question Smoak has a chance to be a very productive big league hitter, but lots of questions as to whether he’s ready to produce this soon as an everyday player in the middle of the lineup.

Miguel Olivo is the new backstop for the Mariners, and he’s off his best offensive season with career highs in several categories. But those stats were accrued playing for the Rockies. The only thing Coors Field and Safeco have in common is that they’re both baseball stadiums. I don’t see any chance Olivo comes close to duplicating last year’s numbers. He slumped badly after the All-Star break last season, and Olivo’s career OBP is a brutal .283.

The early season middle infield duties figure to be shared by Jack Wilson, Brendan Ryan, Josh Wilson and Adam Kennedy. Jack Wilson has the great glove, but he can’t hit and he also can’t stay healthy. Ryan will likely open the season at 2B, and he’s also a superb defender who offers little offense. Josh Wilson is another weak bat with an okay glove and he’s strictly utility filler. Kennedy enjoyed a rebirth in an outstanding 2009 campaign with the A’s, but went back into decline with the Nationals last season. He shouldn’t be more than a spare part at this point, but could end up getting regular AB with the Mariners.

The pitching is pedestrian at best once we’re done extolling the virtues of Hernandez. Jason Vargas won nine games in his best big league season, and that was with the benefit of a great deal of luck. Vargas gives up way too many fly balls, and even at spacious Safeco his home runs allowed were absurdly low in 2010. Doug Fister was an early season surprise for the Mariners, but he eventually regressed to his norm, which is strictly back of the rotation level. Luke French doesn’t profile as a pitcher who should be in a big league rotation, but he is in Seattle. Erik Bedard has never been able to stay healthy, so despite his talent, he can’t be relied upon to give the Mariners regular turns.

The bullpen is dicey at best. David Aardsma is the established closer, but he could start the season on the DL as he recovers from hip surgery. Brandon League had okay base stats last season, but his peripheral numbers were not good. He’s adequate at best as the setup man, and I don’t like him as the closer if Aardsma remains out for any extended period. The rest of the bullpen is comprised of castoffs who are either unproven or in decline, so this is yet another area of concern for the Mariners.

Seattle does have a few prospects worth talking about. Dustin Ackley needs a little more minor league seasoning, and he has yet to produce much from a power standpoint. But Ackley is a legit bat and I’d be stunned if he’s not this team’s starting 2B by mid-season. Power pitching Michael Pineda could probably use another dozen or so starts at AAA, but don’t be shocked if he’s with the big club from the outset due to the lack of quality arms on the current big league roster. Nick Franklin is progressing nicely and profiles as the future shortstop for the Mariners, but he’s still a year or two away.

The Mariners were a winning team in 2009, but this was correctly regarded as a major fluke by most statistical analysts, as their run differential suggested they were just plain lucky. What we saw in 2010 from the Mariners was a more accurate reflection of their overall lack of talent. There’s more of the same in store this season. Seattle has little hope of escaping the AL West cellar, and they’re likely to endure another campaign with 100 or more losses.

2011 Oakland A’s Preview

Definite possibilities. If you’re looking for an ultra-quick summation of what lies ahead in 2011 for the Oakland A’s, those two words pretty much hit the nail on the head. Following an 81-81 2010 campaign, there are loads of reason for optimism in Oakland this time around. But at the same time, there are red flags galore that could end up derailing this team’s hopes in a hurry.

There’s no question about the strength of this A’s team. Oakland has powerhouse pitching, and there’s every reason to believe this will be one of the elite staffs in the game this season. The top of the rotation is tremendously talented. Trevor Cahill had a breakout campaign in 2010, limiting the opposition to zero or one earned run in more than half of his 30 starts. Brett Anderson has star potential if he can stay healthy. Gio Gonzalez had to battle occasional bouts with wildness, but flashed high end potential on a regular basis, and he figures to keep getting better. The A’s could do a lot worse than Dallas Braden as a fourth starter. The lefty is as gritty as it gets when it comes to competing and he’s a definite asset to the A’s. Like most teams, the final rotation spot is a little iffy, but the A’s are optimistic that Josh Outman will be able to nail down that spot after missing all of the 2010 season with injury. If not, the team can patchwork that last spot with any one of a number of veteran hurlers.

The bullpen is a major source of strength. A healthy Andrew Bailey is a cinch to snare 30 saves, and the A’s picked up a tremendous insurance policy by obtaining the services of underrated Grant Balfour. Brian Fuentes can also close games, although I like him better in his more likely role of lefty setup man. Michael Wuertz scuffled some last season as he had trouble staying healthy, but he’s a solid option and lefty Craig Breslow is coming off a very strong campaign. One never knows with bullpens, as there’s more volatility there than anyplace else from year to year. But on paper, I don’t know that there’s a better pen in all of baseball than this one.

The pitching is clearly the good news for Oakland fans. The bad news is that it’s tough to win titles without production, and the A’s couldn’t hit a lick last season. I’m sold that this year’s lineup is better than last season’s, but not to the extent that it will be any more than average, and perhaps not even that. Simply stated, there isn’t anyone in the projected Oakland batting order who’s going to strike fear into opposing pitchers. Plus, it’s a lineup that features way too many guys with injury issues, and there is not a great deal of quality depth on hand.

Coco Crisp is slated to leadoff, and he posted pretty decent numbers last season… when he played, that is. And there’s the rub with Crisp. He’s almost guaranteed to hit the DL at some point every year, and he finished last season early with yet another finger injury, something that has plagued him for years. Furthermore, Oakland’s two new projected corner OF’s also finished 2009 on the disabled list. I like both Josh Willingham and David DeJesus if they can stay on the field, but that’s simply not even close to being guaranteed in either case.

The Oakland infield is a bland offering with little upside. Daric Barton doesn’t offer nearly enough production at 1B. Mark Ellis is reliable at 2B, but he’s yet another player on this roster who has been plagued by injuries. Cliff Pennington is probably never going to hit for a great average, but he’s got speed and seems to be at his best in clutch situations. Pennington has all kinds of range defensively, and if he can cut back the errors just a tad, he becomes one of the more underrated commodities in baseball at a premium position. 3B is a problem. Kevin Kouzmanoff has stagnated offensively with his plate aggressiveness working against him far too frequently. The catching is in very good hands with Kurt Suzuki. He seriously slumped after a huge first half last season, but Suzuki was also banged up and that undoubtedly impacted his numbers. But he’s a rock solid guy, and is, in fact, very likely the best overall position player on this team.

Hideki Matsui is slated to handle the DH duties and I’m not sure he’s a good fit for the A’s. Matsui put up pedestrian numbers with the Angels last season, and that was hitting in a better lineup in a somewhat more generous ballpark. Matsui’s OBP is trending downward, his K rate is rising, and at close to 37 years old, he doesn’t figure to be likely to undergo a renaissance. The hole card offensively is powerful Chris Carter. The massive 1B/OF has loads of power and he showed some flashes after a disastrous 0/33 start to his big league career. Carter is penciled in as a backup for now, but with all the health questions on this team, there’s little question that Carter is going to get a chance at regular AB’s. If he can cut back a bit on the strikeouts, Carter could well develop into the one legit deep threat on this team. Conor Jackson is also in the mix, but his best days may already be behind him despite the fact he’s only 28 years old.

The A’s have some talented prospects on the way, but Grant Green, Max Stassi and Jemille Weeks are down the road producers who don’t figure to be in the mix just yet. Adrian Cardenas is probably the most big league ready guy in the system, and he’s a good bet to be up with the big club before long, if not right out of spring training.

The bottom line on this team is that they have a definite chance to be serious contenders in the AL West on the strength of an impact pitching staff. But there are way too many health risks and ordinary offensive performers to have me feeling confident that Oakland will be much more than another .500 team that falls short of getting to the playoffs once again.
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2011 Los Angeles Angels Preview

Hot stove conversation is terrific, but the start of spring training is even better. I’ll definitely be following the hoops as closely as possible as we head toward the conference tournaments and beyond. But the fact that big league camps are about to open means we can start counting down the days until the start of the 2011 baseball season. Make no mistake, baseball has always been my favorite game, and I’m looking forward to another great summer on the diamond.

Before looking at the Angels, a word about my 2010 campaign. From a wagering standpoint, I had what can only be called a phenomenal season. The bottom line on my independently documented selections was an incredible +51.64 units, and that’s based on a flat one unit wager on each play. Translated into actual dollars, a $100 bettor earned a net profit of $5164. A nickel bettor ended up in the black to the tune of $25,820.

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Okay, here we go with a preview of what’s in store in Anaheim. The Angels took quite a tumble last season, and I was convinced they’d be major players in the off season via trade and/or free agency. I was wrong on that count. The Halos were the favorites to land Carl Crawford, but they apparently didn’t go after him with much conviction and lost the star OF to the Red Sox (which thrilled me, to put it mildly). They also didn’t get Adrian Beltre, who would have solved their 3B problem. They evidently never went after Rafael Soriano, which would have alleviated what has to be a major concern in the bullpen. In other words, they struck out in big time fashion. Making matters even worse, they made a bizarre trade with Toronto and obtained Vernon Wells. Not that Wells is a stiff. He’s a decent OF and his bat could play pretty well in his new home park. But Wells is also one of the most overpaid players in the game in terms of value, and the Blue Jays had to be thrilled at not having to assume any portion of the remainder of his huge contract.

Th strength of this Angels squad will be the starting pitching. The quartet of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro is outstanding and if Scott Kazmir can relocate some of his past form, the Halos are going to be a major headache for opposing hitters. The one knock on the rotation is that Kazmir is the only lefty and he’s a shaky component at best these days. But overall, it’s an excellent rotation. Unfortunately, the bullpen is just the opposite. I’m dumbfounded as to how this team can be relying on Fernando Rodney as their apparent closer heading into camp. Scott Downs came over from the Blue Jays, and he’s a rock solid southpaw. I would not be shocked to see Downs take over as the closer at some point, though he’s better suited to a key setup role. Kevin Jepsen could be another candidate for the ninth inning, but not unless he finds a way to lower that WHIP. Hisanori Takahashi is now an Angel and he’s not a bad fit as a long reliever. I see Jordan Walden as the wild card in this mix. Walden is no longer a starting pitcher prospect and his triple digit heat along with a nasty slider indicates his future is as a closer. I’m not at all confident in Rodney, so I’m going to predict that Walden gets an opportunity to earn saves at some point this season.

Kendry Morales was on his way to a huge season in 2010 before a walk-off homer celebration resulted in knee damage that ended his campaign. The Angels desperately need Morales to pick things up where he left off last year. The rest of the infield is average at best. Howie Kendrick is okay, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to be the hitter this organization thought he would become. Erick Aybar flopped as a leadoff hitter, and I expect him to be hitting much lower in the order this year. Maicer Izturis looks like the likely starter at 3B, and I don’t think he’s an everyday guy, particularly since he always seems to be hurt. Alberto Callaspo projects as the utility IF, and that’s a good role for him. Power hitting Mark Trumbo will play some 1B and he’ll also rack up some AB as a DH, maybe even more if Bobby Abreu is forced to play RF.

Wells and Torii Hunter are slated to play the corner OF spots, with speedy Peter Bourjos up the middle. Bourjos definitely has potential, but I’m not buying his being ready to play every day at this level just yet. So don’t be surprised to see one of the vets in CF with Abreu putting on a glove every now and then, and maybe even more than that.

Jeff Mathis is an outstanding backstop, and he’ll get the bulk of the starts at catcher while prospect Hank Conger does a little more fine tuning before eventually taking over behind the plate.

The Angels don’t have nearly the farm system they had in recent years. But there is one potential superstar atop the organizational chart. Mike Trout looks like an absolute can’t miss, and his progress in 2010 was so spectacular I would not be shocked to see him get a shot with the big club late in the season.

Overall, I am not all that high on the Angels. But they’re in the AL West, and I can’t rule them out as contenders. More on that later after I preview the Rangers and A’s.

I’ll be covering three or four teams each week as spring ball gets underway. Comments or questions are always welcome!